Trial Estimation of FISIM in Japan Y. Onuki ESRI

FISIM in Japanese SNA 2000 ’93SNA (FISIM not allocated) 2005 Base year Changed 1995 to 2000 Not decided yet, but …

Index Based on Eurostat Method No.448/98 and No.1889/2000 Some different method Trial calculation Impact on GDP Problems to be solved

FISIM=A+B Deposit Rate A B Loans Deposits Reference Rate Loan Rate When deposits > loans

S122 & S123 S122 Other Depository Corporations S123 Other Financial Intermediaries, except Insurance Corporations and Pension Funds (Note) Securities companies are included in S123 in Japan. Stock dealing on credit produces FISIM.

Bank Debenture & Privately-Placed Bond Bank Debentures are issued by some banks. As a matter of fact, Bank Debentures are same as deposits. Privately-Placed Bonds are issued. They are not included in this calculation.

Reference Rate Method 1: Interest receivable on resident interbank loans, divided by stock of resident interbank loans. Interbank: data not available Interests paid by S122 & S123 to S122, S123, S124 & S125 (including insurance corporations and pension funds)

Breakdown between institutional Sectors(1) Loans Interests paid to S122 & S123 (data not available) Interests paid to S122,S123, S124 & S125 (data available): Sectorial FISIM (a) Total FISIM broken down to each institutional sectors by the proportion of (a)

Breakdown between institutional Sectors(2) Deposits Import of FISIM :intermediate consumption by S122 & S123 Total Deposit FISIM – Import of Deposit FISIM Distributed by the stock of deposits by each institutional sector

Breakdown between Household and unincorporated enterprises(1) Loans FISIM Stock of loans and the interests paid: data available by 3 types A) Consumer Loans B) Dwelling Loans C) Loans to unincorporated enterprises Breakdown by the amount of each FISIM

Breakdown between Household and unincorporated enterprises(2) Deposit FISIM Flow of Funds (data not available) Household expenditure survey Worker’s Household : Household Self-Employed and Agricultural Household : Unincorporated enterprises Breakdown by the stocks of deposits

Import and Export of FISIM(1) Flow of Funds (stock of deposits & loans) Balance of Payment (Interests paid to/from non-resident institutions) Deposit Interest rate > Loan Interest rate Official Development Aid & Loan from/to overseas branch ???

Import & Export of FISIM(2) Hypothesis The rates below are the same for Import, Export and inland dealing. (Loan Rate-Reference Rate)/Reference Rate (Reference Rate-Deposit Rate)/Deposit Rate Because the difference of interest rates are large between inland deal (Yen) and trade (USD etc.).

Import & Export of FISIM(3) Export Loan FISIM Interests paid by non-residents x M1 Import Loan FISIM Interests paid to non-resident banks x M1 M1 = (Loan Rate-Reference Rate)/Reference Rate

Import & Export of FISIM(4) Export Deposit FISIM Interests paid to non-residents x M2 Import Deposit FISIM Interests paid by non-resident banks x M2 M2 = (Reference Rate-Deposit Rate)/Deposit Rate

FISIM at constant prices GDP deflator is used

Difference from Eurostat Method Deposits(96.3%) + Bank Debentures(3.7%) Loan + Privately-Placed Bonds(>1.9%) Interests paid to S122, S123, S124 & S125 from S122 & S123 Loan FISIM is distributed to each sector by using Interests paid to S122, S123, S124 & S125 Deposit FISIM distributed by Stock Import & Export of FISIM (hypothesis)

Output

FISIM & Commissions and Fees （ Fiscal Year,billion Yen, ％） Avg. ＦＩＳＩＭ 20,56921,11421,29621,66720,48921,59924,144 21, %80.4%81.4%82.4%75.3%78.0%80.7% 79.8% C & F5,1285,1394,8584,6336,7346,0855,764 5, %19.6%18.6%17.6%24.7%22.0%19.3% 20.2%

Allocation of FISIM （ FY 、 billion Yen ） Domestic output20,56921,11421,29621,66720,48921,59924,144 Import Export Domestic Demand20,46620,94021,15021,60220,44621,53424,190 Financial Institutions (A)1,1141,1001, Non-Financial (B)3,4913,1032,9603,4003,2323,6323,647 General Government (C)3,1943,4283,4453,3843,3423,5413,989 Houshold12,07612,83013,31013,54713,00113,55415,562 Households as consumers (D) 9,84710,48010,92610,85310,37910,82311,969 unincorporated enterprises (E) 2,2282,3512,3842,6932,6222,7303,594 Private Non-Profit (F) Intermediate Demand (A+B+E)6,8346,5546,4117,0076,4516,9207,946 Final Demands(C+D+F)13,63214,38614,73914,59413,99614,61416,243

Impact on Nominal GDP ＜ Nominal ＞ （ FY 、 billion Yen 、％） Avg. Impact on GDP13,73614,56014,88514,66014,03914,68016,19714,679 Final Consumption H 9,84710,48010,92610,85310,37910,82311,96910,754 Gov & Non-profit 3,7853,9073,8133,7413,6173,7914,2753,847 Export - Import （％） Impact on GDP Final Consumption H Gov & Non-profit Export - Import Volatility(%) GDP Final Consumption H Gov & Non-profit Export - Import

Impact on Real GDP ＜ Base year = Fiscal year of 1995 ＞ （ FY 、 billion Yen 、％） avg. Impact on GDP13,61214,31814,60213,55913,41413,84813,83913,885 Household 9,74810,27910,5569,9269,82610,05810,10310,071 Gov. & non-profit 3,7613,8673,9003,5683,5433,7223,7783,734 Export - Import （％） Impact on GDP Household Gov. & Non-profit Export - Import Volatility(%) GDP Household Gov & non-profit Export - Import

Impact on Growth Rate （ FY 、％、 billion Yen ） GDP504,038516,729521,153514,418510,687515,478502,602 Growth Rate (A) GDP with FISIM517,773531,288536,038529,078524,726530,157518,800 Growth Rate (B) Impact (B-A) （ FY 、％、 billion Yen ） GDP498,872511,947523,051516,579509,116513,377507,455 Growth Rate (a) GDP with FISIM512,484526,265537,653530,138522,530527,225521,295 Growth Rate (b) Impact (b-a)

Problems to be solved Volatility … Is there a good reason? FISIM by industry Long time series Quarterly Estimation of FISIM