Lecture 13 GOVT S-1113. Arab Authoritarianism: Hypotheses RELIGION: Islam and democracy are incompatible CULTURE: Arab patriarchy/tribal allegiances RENTIER.

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Presentation transcript:

Lecture 13 GOVT S-1113

Arab Authoritarianism: Hypotheses RELIGION: Islam and democracy are incompatible CULTURE: Arab patriarchy/tribal allegiances RENTIER STATES: oil and patronage EXOGENOUS: Western (esp. United States) foreign policy

Economic Factors in the Arab World Income inequality in/across states Low relative GDP growth Low export penetration (except for oil)/isolation from global markets Late/stalled development High unemployment, esp. among young males

Social Factors in the Arab World High unemployment/social frustration and anomie Insularity of region/Arabic as common language Arab/Israeli conflict Colonial legacies Weak nationalism/alternative ties (pan-Arabism, tribal, ummat al-Islamiyah) Corrupt/kleptocratic/personalistic elites Demographics/gender disparities

Potential Causes of Arab Spring: Reneging on ruling bargains Youth bulge Escalating food costs (esp. post 2008) Illegitimacy of leaders/lack of popular representation Demonstration effects Propitious circumstances Social media

Tahrir Square, Cairo (9 Feb 2011)

Sanaa, Yemen Protests

Sirte, Libya (Gaddafi loyalists shell rebels)

What Does the Future Hold? Is Democracy Inevitable Everywhere?