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Fermanian Business & Economic Institute December 8, 2015 Lynn Reaser, Ph.D. Chief Economist 2016 Global Economic Outlook The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015 T HE E CONOMIC C LUB OF L AS V EGAS

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI INTRODUCTION The Institute is a strategic unit of PLNU that specializes in a variety of consulting services dedicated to discovering insights that effect change for organizations around the globe. Our skilled team of consultants, economists, and researchers provide clients and partners with individualized, actionable results that support strategic decision-making.

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI Clients include: National Association for Business Economics, California State Treasurer, Terrapin Bright Green, San Diego Military Advisory Council, San Diego Zoo Global, Sempra Generation, and many other private, public, and government organizations. Fermanian Business & Economic PLNU For information on how we can work together contact us:

Global Outlook The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015

Global Manufacturing Barely Growing Index, 50 plus = expansion The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015

China’s Upswing Stalls Real GDP, percent change over prior year e = estimatef = forecast The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015

Oil Prices Collapse Brent Crude Oil, dollars per barrel, quarterly average e = estimatef = forecast The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015

Quantitative Easing Goes Global Central bank assets/GDP, percent The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015

U.S. Dollar Soars Broad Trade-Weighted Index, Jan. 1997=100, Dec. average Forecast Actual e = estimatef = forecast The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015

Migration Crisis Confronts EU First time asylum applicants, quarterly totals, thousands The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015 e = estimate

World Economy to Expand Moderately Real GDP, percent change over prior year e 2016f e = estimatef = forecast The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015

Global Risks Probability, percent The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015

Fermanian Business & Economic Institute Main Office: The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2015