Demographic Transition Model: A four stage model that shows a similar process of population change in all societies over time…Has a predictive capability for economic and population growth Every country is at some stage The model is irreversible…you do not go back There is a theoretical 5 th stage Demographic Transition Model Pre-Agriculture Agricultural Manufacturing Service

Characteristics of Stage 1: Very high CBR and CDR cancel each other out and low life expectancy Almost no natural increase rate due to climate, warfare, disease and ecological factors. Most of human history spent in stage one…pre-industrial society based on subsistence farming and seasonal migration (transhumance). Countries in Stage 1: No country is here today, but some Sub- Saharan African countries are right on the boundary between the first and second stage…Many people still live in stage 1 conditions DMT-Stage 1: Low Growth StageCBRCDR Life Expectancy NIR/RNI 1 High (25-40) Low (33-50)Low-Moderate ( %)

Characteristics of Stage 2: Rapidly declining CDR but CBR remains high and very high NIR/RNI Improved agriculture and health care dropped CDR. Mid-18 th to Late 19 th Century, the Industrial Revolution pushed countries in Europe as well as the U.S., Japan, and Australia into Stage 2. First time in world history to have significant growth LDCs entered Stage 2 around 1950 when MDCs diffuse improved medical tech (vaccines) to LDCs. Countries in Stage 2: Most of Africa in stage 2 today as well as some countries in Asia…Periphery countries/LDCs DMT-Stage 2: High Growth StageCBRCDR Life Expectancy NIR/RNI 2 High (25-40)Decreasing (8-25) Increasing (<70) Low-Moderate ( %)

Characteristics of Stage 3: CBR rapidly declines and CDR continues to decline slowly. NIR begins to moderate CBR drops because of social customs – access to birth control, infant mortality rate drops, women in work force, kids become economic drain MDC countries today entered during the first half of 20 th Century Countries in Stage 3: Asia and parts of Latin America moved here in recent years Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) or Semi-Periphery are in a transition phase between Stage 2 and 3…i.e. Brazil DMT-Stage 3: Moderate Growth StageCBRCDR Life Expectancy NIR/RNI 3 Lowering (12-20) Low (5-12)Higher(<78)Lowering ( %)

Characteristics of Stage 4: Very low CBR and CDR produce almost no long-term natural increase and possibly a decrease Zero pop growth: CBR and CDR are equal TFR of 2.1 produces zero growth Countries in Stage 4 Most European countries in stage 4 today The United States is in a transition zone between Stage 3 and 4…we have characteristics of both Countries with negative NIR…Russia and Japan (shrinking) on track for stage 5. DMT-Stage 4: Low Growth StageCBRCDR Life Expectancy NIR/RNI 4 Low (8-16)Low (5-12)Highest (<82)Low-Negative (-0.8 to -0.6%)

Characteristics of Stage 5: In future if higher CDR than CBR then population decline will occur. If a country stays in stage 5 without migration it will eventually cease to exist Countries in Stage 5: Japan, Sweden and Russia are possible candidates that are close to entering the stage. DMT-Stage 5: Decline

No one in stage 1… only a few have reached stage 4 Model has 2 big breaks w/ the past First break: sudden drop in death rate (stage 2) from technology and has taken place everywhere Second break: sudden drop in birth rate (stage 3) comes from changing social customs and has not taken place everywhere Population growth or decline is directly tied to the socio-economic condition of the country and takes into consideration the need for children (a necessity or a luxury) Generalities of the Model