ECON*2100 Week 2 – Lecture 3 Population Growth 1.

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Presentation transcript:

ECON*2100 Week 2 – Lecture 3 Population Growth 1

World Population 2

The Malthusian View Malthus 3

The Malthusian View Malthus Number alive Number that can be fed Maximum Sustainable We regret to announce that two-thirds of you will have to drop dead. Please take a number and we will call your name shortly. 4

Problem with the Malthusian Model He underestimated society’s capacity to increase production of food and other essentials 5

Problem with the Malthusian Model He underestimated society’s capacity to increase production of food and other essentials 6

Food output Advances in agricultural productivity – Equipment – Plant breeding (Green Revolution) – GMO 7

Demographic transition 3 countries : Each experiences a leveling off 8

General pattern Initially: High birth rate, high death rate 9 Time People Population growth rate

General pattern Next: Birth rate stays high, but death rate falls 10 Time People Population growth rate

General pattern Next: Birth rate falls 11 Time People Population growth rate

General pattern Next: Birth rate falls 12 Time People Population growth rate

Britain 13

World Population 14

Population pyramid Populationpyramid.net 15

Population pyramid Populationpyramid.net 16

Population pyramid Populationpyramid.net 17

Population pyramid Populationpyramid.net 18

Population pyramid Populationpyramid.net 19

The Problem for the West Dependency ratio 20

Overpopulation debate The ‘pro’ overpopulation view: 3 rd World cities are teeming with crowded, overflowing slums Pressure on resources, leading to local deforestation and pollution As large countries like India and China industrialize, their energy use and pollution emissions will soar The only solution is to reduce population 21

Overpopulation debate The ‘anti’ overpopulation view: 3 rd World is urbanizing but has weak property rights rules in expanding cities Pressure on resources arises because of primitive electricity grid. Even small populations can overexploit badly-managed resources As large countries like India and China get wealthy, their energy use will get more efficient and pollution emissions will be better managed Population control measures are disproportionately wiping out girl populations, causing unnecessary suffering and demographic instability 22

Next Resources, Scarcity & Growth 23