IMPACT ANALYSIS OF THE PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION ON ALABAMA Michael Anderson, Jeffrey Wilson and Jaehoon Kim University of Alabama in Huntsville Logistic, Trade and Transportation Symposium 2014

Canal Expansion Will allow for the larger ships Capacity 12,000 TEUs

Methodology Use FAF3 Database of Freight Flows Distribute freight traffic between Asia and Inland port through Mobile

Freight Passing Through - Port of Mobile Location ZoneMobile Jacksonville, FL % Miami, FL % Orlando, FL % Tampa, FL % Remainder of Florida % Atlanta, GA % Savannah, GA % Remainder of GA % Chicago, IL % Indianapolis, IN % Detroit, MI % Mississippi % Cincinnati, OH % Remainder of OH % Remainder of TN % Destination of freight passing through Port of Mobile (FAF3) Additionally, had Freight to Birmingham, Mobile and Remainder of AL

Sensitivity Analysis ScenarioIncreased volume Base (1)- 28,000 TEUs Post-Panamax vessel per two month 38,000 TEUs Post-Panamax vessel per a month 4Two 8,000 TEUs Post-Panamax vessel per a month 512,000 TEUs Post-Panamax vessel per two month 612,000 TEUs Post-Panamax vessel per a month 7Two 12,000 TEUs Post-Panamax vessel per a month

Alabama Statewide Travel Demand Model 1158 Zone Model Has capacity and existing traffic volume for all segments Distribution of freight trips to/from Port of Mobile based on FAF3 distribution Expanded volumes based on scenarios

Impact/Conclusions Worst case scenario – An additional 6 miles of roadway exceed capacity – Only 4.5 miles had V/C ratio increases greater than 0.05 Majority of Alabama have capacity to handle addition freight traffic Greatest impact will be felt in Mobile near the port facility