This work is supported by a National Science Foundation (NSF) collaboration between the Directorates for Education and Human Resources (EHR) and Geociences.

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Presentation transcript:

This work is supported by a National Science Foundation (NSF) collaboration between the Directorates for Education and Human Resources (EHR) and Geociences (GEO) under grant DUE Comparing Hurricanes and Hurricane Seasons

Saffir-Simpson Scale What is a hurricane? What 4 conditions are necessary for hurricane formation What happens as hurricanes approach land? Based on wind speed: Hurricanes that are Category 3 or higher (>111 knots) are called major hurricanes.

ACE =10 -4 Σ(maximum wind speed in knots) 2 maximum sustained winds every 6 hours Accumulated Cyclone Energy

Example: Irene (2011) daytimemax sust winds (kt)ACE (10^-4 kt^2) 9/8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /9/ /9/ /9/ /9/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/ total4.15

Example: 2011 Total ACE (10 4 kt²) — Storm: 127.0Katia112.22Emily 218.8Irene121.88Arlene 318.7Ophelia131.85Gert 415.9Philippe141.79Lee 510.1Rina151.62Don 69.17Maria161.53Harvey 74.31Nate Unnamed 83.75Sean0.848Jose 93.28Bret Franklin Cindy Total: 126 Is a seasonal total ACE of 126 above normal? Below normal? Normal?

ACE Season Totals What was last season’s ACE total? Season typeACE (x 10 4 kt 2) Above normalAbove 150 Near normal Below normalBelow 100

Seasonal Outlooks There is great interest in trying to predict: – How many hurricanes, major hurricanes? WHY? General awareness/preparedness Some predictions about climate are useful for deciding what crops to plant HOWEVER — we cannot yet predict specific hurricanes more than a few days in advance

We are currently in a high-activity era More total storms per year More big storms per year And more energy released by all the hurricanes combined in a year (ACE)

The latest...

Looking at the most recent hurricane season outlook for the Atlantic Ocean: ooks/ ooks/ What implications can you imagine for this outlook (above-normal, normal, or below- normal) for 1.a farmer in Georgia? 2.a governor in New Jersey? 3.your own life? Plant more drought-resistant or water-loving crops? Allocate funds for education and evacuation? Cut tree limbs near house? Restock emergency kit?

Summary How big is a hurricane? – Saffir-Simpson scale – ACE Index calculation Multi-decadal cycles (high/low activity eras) Seasonal outlooks and applications to society

References and Reuse Slide 4. Data in public domain. Slides 4 and 5. Data in public domain... Can be updated for different years and hurricanes: Slide 6. Screenshot from NOAA. Website in public domain. Slide 8. Screenshot from NOAA. Website in public domain. gif gif Slide 10. Screenshot from NOAA. Website in public domain. Slide 11. Screenshot from NOAA. Website in public domain. Slide 12 refers to Hurricane Outlooks at: