Groupe d'Economie Mondiale Trade, Development and the EPAs Patrick A. Messerlin Professor of Economics, Sciences Po Director, Groupe d’Economie Mondiale à Sciences Po (GEM) The EU, Trade and Development Policy Open Europe London, 26 March 2007
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale Trade for development (1) Trade, growth, development, happiness Trade as an incentive for better investment in a country Contracts import-competing industries Expands export industries Trade liberalization: a necessary condition for benefiting from the opening of foreign markets The cotton case in Africa The “Round for free” (China vs. the EC)
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale Trade for development (2) Policy space and trade policy not endangered by market opening tariff=tax on consumers and subsidy for producers need for targeting “Behind-the-border” agenda Huge policy space: taxes and subsidies on production and consumption of goods, services and factors of production WTO disciplines generally friendly to domestic instruments My Kingdom for a Budget! Tariffs vs. trading costs
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale Trade for development (3) Ideal trade policy Uniform and moderate tariff Tariff cuts under a Swiss formula Common virtues Economics: cutting the highest tariffs Politics: neutralizing the lobbies Policy Space: providing fiscal revenues
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale A Global Look at the EPAs (1) The current EPAs Economics: cutting the lowest tariffs Politics: exacerbating the lobbies Policy space: reducing fiscal revenues The EPAs and selected Bilateral Trade Agreements Size Trade in goods Trade in services
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale A Global Look at the EPAs (2)
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale A Global Look at the EPAs (3)
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale Better Alternatives? No Doha Deal EBA-Plus GSP-Plus A Doha Deal The Hong-Kong “97%-Plus” Initiative A WTO new “waiver”? Limited reciprocity MFN tariff cuts uniform MFN tariffs
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale Thank You !
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale The Rise of Bilateralism?
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale A Global Look at the EPAs (3)
Groupe d'Economie Mondiale The Issue of Farm Tariffs