Kristina Fröhlich, (DWD), Daniela Domeisen (Univ. Hamburg), Amy Butler (NOAA), Matthias Bittner (MPI), Wolfgang Müller (MPI), Johanna Baehr (Univ. Hamburg)

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

The role of the stratosphere in extended- range forecasting Thomas Jung Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Germany.

Advertisements

WCRP OSC 2011: Strategies for improving seasonal prediction © ECMWF Strategies for improving seasonal prediction Tim Stockdale, Franco Molteni, Magdalena.

Dynamical responses to volcanic forcings in climate model simulations DynVar workshop Matthew Toohey with Kirstin Krüger, Claudia Timmreck, Hauke.

Ocean’s Role in the Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction Yulia A. Zyulyaeva Moscow State University P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow 1/17.

© Crown copyright Met Office The Met Office high resolution seasonal prediction system Anca Brookshaw – Monthly to Decadal Variability and Prediction,

Seasonal to decadal prediction of the Arctic Oscillation D. Smith, A. Scaife, A. Arribas, E. Blockley, A. Brookshaw, R.T. Clark, N. Dunstone, R. Eade,

Willem A. Landman & Francois Engelbrecht.  Nowcasting: A description of current weather parameters and 0 to 2 hours’ description of forecast weather.

Annular Modes of Extra- tropical Circulation Judith Perlwitz CIRES-CDC, University of Colorado.

The dynamical response to volcanic eruptions: sensitivity of model results to prescribed aerosol forcing Matthew Toohey 1 Kirstin Krüger 1,2, Claudia Timmreck.

The influence of the stratosphere on tropospheric circulation and implications for forecasting Nili Harnik Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences,

Spring Onset in the Northern Hemisphere: A Role for the Stratosphere? Robert X. Black Brent A. McDaniel School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia.

Validation of the NCEP CFS forecasts Suranjana Saha Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA/DOC.

Pei-Yu Chueh 2010/7/1.  From 1948 to 2005 for DJF found decreases over the Arctic, Antarctic and North Pacific, an increase over the subtropical North.

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11

Overview Northern hemisphere extra-tropics El Niño Seasonal Climate – Winter Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 14 April 2010.

Did we expect a disturbed stratosphere in ? QBO-EAST ? (Holton & Tan 1980) EL NINO ? (Ineson and Scaife, 2009; Bell et al 2009) SOLAR MINIMUM ?

Predictability of the Arctic Oscillation From Stratospheric Influences in Operational Forecasts Junsu Kim 1, Arun Kumar 2, and Thomas Reichler 1 ( 1 Univ.

Exeter 1-3 December 2010 Monthly Forecasting with Ensembles Frédéric Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

© dhwpe. Tropospheric Circulation Changes in Response to a Stratospheric Zonal Ozone Anomaly - Model Results Dieter H.W. Peters, A. Schneidereit, Ch.

Jae-Heung Park, Soon-Il An. 1.Introduction 2.Data 3.Result 4. Discussion 5. Summary.

© Crown copyright /0653 Met Office and the Met Office logo are registered trademarks Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1.

The speaker took this picture on 11 December, 2012 over the ocean near Japan. 2014/07/29 AOGS 11th Annual Meeting in Sapporo.

Speaker/ Pei-Ning Kirsten Feng Advisor/ Yu-Heng Tseng

Assessing Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation for May-June-July in Kazakhstan Tony Barnston, IRI, New York, US.

EUROBRISA Workshop – Beyond seasonal forecastingBarcelona, 14 December 2010 INSTITUT CATALÀ DE CIÈNCIES DEL CLIMA Beyond seasonal forecasting F. J. Doblas-Reyes,

CIMA CHFP Data Server.

Connectivity between Eurasian snow extent and Canadian snow mass and river discharge S. J. Déry, J. Sheffield, and E. F. Wood, Princeton.

Extra-tropical climate and the modelling of the stratosphere in coupled atmosphere ocean models. E Manzini Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia.

© Crown copyright Met Office Decadal predictions of the Atlantic ocean and hurricane numbers Doug Smith, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, David Fereday, James.

NACLIM CT1-3 meeting, at MPI, 19-20/03/2014 On the predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: lagged influence of autumn Arctic sea-ice and.

3. Products of the EPS for three-month outlook 1) Outline of the EPS 2) Examples of products 3) Performance of the system.

Overview of 2012/2013 winter over South Korea

Refinements to Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Prediction from 1 December Phil Klotzbach 33 rd Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October.

2010/ 11/ 16 Speaker/ Pei-Ning Kirsten Feng Advisor/ Yu-Heng Tseng

© University of Reading December 2015 Stratospheric climate and variability of the CMIP5 models Andrew.

1 Opposite phases of the Antarctic Oscillation and Relationships with Intraseasonal to Interannual Activity in the Tropics during the Austral Summer (submitted.

Modes of variability and teleconnections: Part II Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Advanced School and Workshop on S2S ICTP,

Fig Decadal averages of the seasonal and annual mean anomalies for (a) temperature at Faraday/Vernadsky, (b) temperature at Marambio, and (c) SAM.

Mukougawa, Hitoshi 1, Yuhji Kuroda 2 and Toshihiko Hirooka 3 1 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, JAPAN 2 Meteorological Research.

One-year re-forecast ensembles with CCSM3.0 using initial states for 1 January and 1 July in Model: CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with state-of-the-art.

Stationary Wave Interference and its Relation to Tropical Convection and Climate Extremes Steven Feldstein, Michael Goss, and Sukyoung Lee The Pennsylvania.

The ENSO Signal in Stratospheric Temperatures from Radiosonde Observations Melissa Free NOAA Air Resources Lab Silver Spring 1.

The impact of solar variability and Quasibiennial Oscillation on climate simulations Fabrizio Sassi (ESSL/CGD) with: Dan Marsh and Rolando Garcia (ESSL/ACD),

NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA Record warming in the South Pacific & western Antarctica.

The impact of tropical convection and interference on the extratropical circulation Steven Feldstein and Michael Goss The Pennsylvania State University.

Boulder, June, 2006 Extremes in Ensemble Simulations of the Maunder Minimum: Midlatitude Cyclones, Precipitation, and Wind speed Christoph Raible (1) M.

© Crown copyright 2007 Forecasting weeks to months ahead Dr. Alberto Arribas Monthly-to-Decadal area, Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter, April 2014.

Page 1© Crown copyright 2007 Influence of ENSO on European Climate via the Stratosphere Sarah Ineson and Adam Scaife 2007.

Equatorial Atlantic Variability: Dynamics, ENSO Impact, and Implications for Model Development M. Latif 1, N. S. Keenlyside 2, and H. Ding 1 1 Leibniz.

CES/SNU AGCM Intercomparison Project WCRP/CLIVAR Predictability of SST forced signals in ensemble simulations of multiple AGCMs during El Niño.

Seasonal Forecast of Antarctic Sea Ice

Has modulation of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall by Sea Surface Temperature of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, weakened in recent years? SRIVASTAVA et al.

Variation of tropical cyclone season in the western North Pacific

JMA Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for OND 2017

JMA Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for OND 2017

Oliver Elison Timm ATM 306 Fall 2016

GPC-Seoul: Status and future plans

Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NCAR

Teleconnections in MINERVA experiments

WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction

Composite patterns of DJF U200 anomalies for (a) strong EAJS, (b) weak EAJS, (c) El Niño and (d) La Niña.

Edwin Gerber (New York University)

The Climate System TOPICS ENSO Impacts Seasonal Climate Forecasts

ATMS790: Graduate Seminar, Yuta Tomii

Eun-Pa Lim and Harry H. Hendon Science to Services

ENSO-NAO interactions via the stratosphere

Prospects for Wintertime European Seasonal Prediction

Cliff Mass Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington

Strat-trop interaction and Met Office seasonal forecasting

Characteristics of 2018/2019 winter monsoon in Japan

Presentation transcript:

Kristina Fröhlich, (DWD), Daniela Domeisen (Univ. Hamburg), Amy Butler (NOAA), Matthias Bittner (MPI), Wolfgang Müller (MPI), Johanna Baehr (Univ. Hamburg)

Seasonal forecasts with a climate model: what kind of predictability can we expect? El Ni ñ o as a benchmark Europe as our target region Motivation WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th

ECHAM6 (Atmosphere) horizontal T63 ~ (1.9°x1.9°) vertical L47 = 47 levels up to 0.01hPa land module JSBACH and hydrological discharge model MPIOM (Ozean) plus sea ice Horizontal: 1.5°, Vertical: 40 levels sea-ice model (dynamic/thermodynamic) OASIS3 (Coupler) WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th Seasonal forecasts with a climate model

Preview 1.The components: Predictability of the tropical Pacific/El Niño region and stratospheric variability 2.A possible pathway through the stratosphere 3.Predictability in the North Atlantic / European region WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th

5 The Data Reference data  ERA interim and HadCRU SST MPIESM-Model:  Set of 9-Member Ensemble of seasonal forecasts for with start date in November

WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th MPI-ESM performance: troposphere worse skill 9 Members Mean high skill Anomaly Correlation Coefficient of 500hPa geopotential height MPI-ESM vs ERAinterim reanalysis DJF ( )

WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th MPI-ESM performance: El Niño 1997/98 HadCRU dataset MPI-ESM, November & May Nov 99 May 99 Nov 98 May 98 Nov 97 May 97 Nov 96 time [°C] Tropical Pacific surface temperature anomalies for the 1997/98 El Niño MPI-ESM, Nov start dates Nov 99 May 99 Nov 98 May 98 Nov 97 May 97 Nov 96

WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th MPI-ESM performance: stratosphere Standard deviation of the zonal wind [m/s] at 10hPa averaged over DJF for 1982 – MPI-ESMERAinterim

WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th A possible pathway through the stratosphere ? Van Loon & Labitzke (1987) Garfinkel & Hartmann (2008) Manzini et al. (2006)

WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th El Niño teleconnection into the stratosphere MPI-ESM ERAinterim DJFM - El Niño composite of geopotential height anomaly 500hPa 10hPa m m

WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th Downward propagation of the El Niño warm anomaly 99% confidence interval pressure [hPa] MPI-ESM ensemble mean ERAinterim reanalysis 80°N temperature anomalies averaged over all El Niño winters [cp. Fig 4, Manzini et al. (2006)] K

WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th Sudden stratospheric warmings are more frequent for a warm polar stratosphere ERAinterim reanalysis model ensemble members model mean DJF temperature anomalies averaged over stratospheric polar cap (10hPa, 60°-90°N) standard deviation one circle per winter / ensemble member [K]

WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th Winter predictability over Europe Anomaly Correlation Coefficient for 500hPa geopotential height DJFM all years ( ) worse skill high skill

WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th Winter predictability over Europe Anomaly Correlation Coefficient for 500hPa geopotential height El Niño SSW El Niño with SSW El Niño w/o SSW worse skill high skill DJFM

 El Niño events as well as sudden stratospheric warmings are well described in the MPI-ESM seasonal prediction system  During El Niño years we can confirm earlier studies on the connection of the El Niño region, the North Pacific and the stratosphere sudden stratospheric warming events are more frequent for a warm polar stratosphere winter predictability over Europe is shown to be increased in case of a sudden stratospheric warming event. Summary WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th Domeisen et al., Seasonal Predictability over Europe arising from El Niño and Stratospheric Variability in the MPI-ESM Seasonal Prediction System, in review with J. Clim.

WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th Additional slides

WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar) 500hPa geopotential height prediction skill for 1982 – 2010 average: MPI-ESM-LR model vs ERAinterim reanalysis persistence (Nov vs. Jan/Feb/Mar)

WWOSC, Montréal, August 18th European winter anomalies