1 | Program Name or Ancillary Texteere.energy.gov Water Power Peer Review MHK MA\Categorizing and Evaluating the Effects of Stressors M. Grippo and I. Hlohowskyj Argonne National Lab November 2011 Risk Analysis of the Potential Ecological Impacts of MHK Arrays

2 | Wind and Water Power Programeere.energy.gov Purpose, Objectives, & Integration Ecological impacts are a major concern in the regulatory review of MHK projects and uncertainty about biological impacts will slow the pace of field deployments. Ecological risk analysis of MHK deployments Single deployment Array of devices Cumulative Impacts - The incremental increases in impacts from a single MHK device to large-scale commercial developments - Interaction of the MHK device with existing impacts from other anthropogenic stressors

3 | Wind and Water Power Programeere.energy.gov Purpose, Objectives, & Integration Objectives: Aid developers in meeting NEPA requirements by addressing concerns of regulatory and management agencies Identify the highest risk impacts that will likely require mitigation Identify data gaps that need to be investigated to reduce uncertainty Integration: Incorporate the results of field and laboratory studies conducted by partner labs into our risk analysis Suggest new endpoints for other labs to evaluate experimentally

4 | Wind and Water Power Programeere.energy.gov Technical Approach Widely accepted EPA Risk Assessment Framework: problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization Problem formulation-Conceptual models (CM) Identifies MHK stressor-receptor relationships -Stakeholder communication, data gaps, prediction -Readily modified as new data become available Address Risk: -MHK Operations: Collision, noise, EMF; habitat alteration -MHK Structure: Habitat alteration; reef effect -Population and Ecosystem level risks

5 | Wind and Water Power Programeere.energy.gov Plan, Schedule, & Budget Schedule Initiation date: 9/1/2009 Planned completion date: 9/30/2012 FY10 Milestones: Report documenting the preliminary CMs and their application to benthic habitat alteration at proposed development sites FY11 Milestones: Report documenting revised CMs and the summary of recent environmental research on MHK deployments FY12 Milestones: Risk analysis and CMs incorporating the most recent studies of the ecological effects of MHK deployments (9/20/2012). Budget: Approximately 61% of the total project funding has been spent to date Budget History FY2009FY2010FY2011 DOECost-shareDOECost-shareDOECost-share $ 307K-$61K-$244K-

6 | Wind and Water Power Programeere.energy.gov Accomplishments and Results FY10 1. Developed CMs of risks associated with a single device and MHK arrays based on existing literature 2. Developed framework for cumulative impact analysis 3. Applied CMs to benthic ecosystems at four locations considered for MHK deployment

7 | Wind and Water Power Programeere.energy.gov Accomplishments and Results FY11 1. Submitted CMs for review to multiple resource agencies 2. Revised CM report incorporating agency comments 3. Currently in the Analysis Phase -Evaluating MHK monitoring studies currently available -Working with USACE on using individual based models quantify exposure probabilities

8 | Wind and Water Power Programeere.energy.gov Accomplishments and Results Habitat mediated impact routes from MHK arrays Higher order interactions more difficult to address CM shows POTENTIAL EFFECTS

9 | Wind and Water Power Programeere.energy.gov Challenges to Date Lack of data to inform the risk analysis held up 2011 work Few MHK deployments Inconclusive results from available monitoring studies Resources and potential impacts vary by technology and project location Challenging to evaluate cumulative impacts –Cumulative impacts analysis requires understanding of MHK device impacts Working with developers to design monitoring plans that will effectively address high priority ecological risks

10 | Wind and Water Power Programeere.energy.gov Next Steps FY12 1.Continue analysis phase of risk assessment -Incorporate new studies and data generated by partner labs 2.Characterization of Exposure -Contact with ecological receptors based on species life history -Empirical or mechanistic models of animal movement to quantitatively evaluate exposure risk 3.Revise CMs based on new data Milestones and Deliverables Risk analysis report and conceptual models (CM) integrating most current risk information on MHK devices Future Work Ongoing incorporation of new data into CM Development of targeted individual based models