Need for Precision Agriculture in the World SOIL 4213 BIOEN World population and the environment (world population of 2 billion, adjusted over a century)

"As the difficulty in feeding 90 million more people each year becomes apparent, FOOD SECURITY MAY REPLACE MILITARY SECURITY as the principal preoccupation of governments. For many countries, security now depends more on protecting their territory from soil erosion than it does on protecting it from military invasion." by Ronald Bleier If we were to maintain our present rate of population growth, by 2095 the world's population would reach almost 13.7 billion UN Population projections. The medium fertility scenario predicts 9.5 billion in 2050, peaking at 11 billion in UN Population projections "World population reached 6.1 billion in mid-2000 and is currently growing at an annual rate of 1.2 per cent, or 77 million people per year. Six countries account for half of this annual growth: India for 21 per cent; China for 12 per cent; Pakistan for 5 per cent; Nigeria for 4 per cent; Bangladesh for 4 per cent, and Indonesia for 3 per cent. By 2050, world population is expected to be between 7.9 billion (low variant) and 10.9 billion (high variant), with the medium variant producing 9.3 billion." -- World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision Highlights, United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 28 February 2001, p.5World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision Highlights "As the difficulty in feeding 90 million more people each year becomes apparent, FOOD SECURITY MAY REPLACE MILITARY SECURITY as the principal preoccupation of governments. For many countries, security now depends more on protecting their territory from soil erosion than it does on protecting it from military invasion." by Ronald Bleier If we were to maintain our present rate of population growth, by 2095 the world's population would reach almost 13.7 billion UN Population projections. The medium fertility scenario predicts 9.5 billion in 2050, peaking at 11 billion in UN Population projections "World population reached 6.1 billion in mid-2000 and is currently growing at an annual rate of 1.2 per cent, or 77 million people per year. Six countries account for half of this annual growth: India for 21 per cent; China for 12 per cent; Pakistan for 5 per cent; Nigeria for 4 per cent; Bangladesh for 4 per cent, and Indonesia for 3 per cent. By 2050, world population is expected to be between 7.9 billion (low variant) and 10.9 billion (high variant), with the medium variant producing 9.3 billion." -- World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision Highlights, United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 28 February 2001, p.5World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision Highlights

Population in 2001 Total (rounded in millions) Density (People per square kilometer) GNP rank United States Japan Germany France United Kingdom Italy China (12% world growth)1, India (21)1, Russian Federation Indonesia (3) Bangladesh (4) Nigeria

Figure 1. World fertilizer N consumption in millions of metric tons, 1961 to 1999, and projected linear consumption. (2050 = 196 million metric tons)

Figure 2. World population as a function of world consumption of fertilizer N in millions of metric tons, 1961 to 1999 (World Population in 1960 was 3 billion)

Figure 3. Metric tons of grain produced per metric ton of fertilizer N applied in the world, from 1961 to 1999.

Table 1. Nitrogen applied for cereal production, area harvested, and grain produced per unit of N applied in the developed and developing world, 1990 to 2001‡.

Need for Precision Agriculture (1) l In 1970, 190,500,000 ha classified as arable and permanent cropland in the USA l Decreased to 187,776,000 ha by l Irrigated land in the USA peaked at 20,582,000 hectares in 1980 and has been stable at 18,771,000 hectares since l Trends suggest that cropland in the USA will not expand beyond the present 190,000,000 ha l In 1970, 190,500,000 ha classified as arable and permanent cropland in the USA l Decreased to 187,776,000 ha by l Irrigated land in the USA peaked at 20,582,000 hectares in 1980 and has been stable at 18,771,000 hectares since l Trends suggest that cropland in the USA will not expand beyond the present 190,000,000 ha

l Developing world: 760,000,000 hectares classified as cropland and could theoretically increase to 850,000,000 hectares. l World population increases by 86 million people per year (235,000/day, World Resources, 1996). l 33,000 people die each day due to malnutrition/starvation l Cropland needed to feed the human population, if population growth stops and land is preserved, will be roughly 3.3 billion hectares, and likely to become limiting near the year 2050 l Developing world: 760,000,000 hectares classified as cropland and could theoretically increase to 850,000,000 hectares. l World population increases by 86 million people per year (235,000/day, World Resources, 1996). l 33,000 people die each day due to malnutrition/starvation l Cropland needed to feed the human population, if population growth stops and land is preserved, will be roughly 3.3 billion hectares, and likely to become limiting near the year 2050 Need for Precision Agriculture (2)

l Probability of bringing 3.3 billion hectares into production from the current 1.4 billion hectares is small ( l A large portion of the lands considered as 'potentially arable' (e.g., increase from 1.4 to 3.3 billion hectares) include tropical rainforests and other lands that would require massive inputs for any kind of sustained crop production. l Probability of bringing 3.3 billion hectares into production from the current 1.4 billion hectares is small ( l A large portion of the lands considered as 'potentially arable' (e.g., increase from 1.4 to 3.3 billion hectares) include tropical rainforests and other lands that would require massive inputs for any kind of sustained crop production. Need for Precision Agriculture (3)

l Unlikely that the total arable world land will increase beyond its present level l Increased production per unit area will be essential. l Applied precision agricultural production practices are timely and required within the developed and developing agricultural community. l Unlikely that the total arable world land will increase beyond its present level l Increased production per unit area will be essential. l Applied precision agricultural production practices are timely and required within the developed and developing agricultural community. Need for Precision Agriculture (4)

Precision Agriculture? Human need Environment –Hypoxia –$750,000,000 (excess N flowing down the Mississippi river/yr) Developed vs Developing Countries High vs Low yielding environments Human need Environment –Hypoxia –$750,000,000 (excess N flowing down the Mississippi river/yr) Developed vs Developing Countries High vs Low yielding environments

Continued success in wheat germplasm and technology dissemination worldwide depends on the free and uninhibited flow of genetic materials and information. Restrictions imposed on such movement due to intellectual property protection could have serious consequences on the ability of developing countries to sustain wheat productivity growth. …. further gains would have to come from specifically targeting breeding efforts to the unique characteristics of marginal environments Continued success in wheat germplasm and technology dissemination worldwide depends on the free and uninhibited flow of genetic materials and information. Restrictions imposed on such movement due to intellectual property protection could have serious consequences on the ability of developing countries to sustain wheat productivity growth. …. further gains would have to come from specifically targeting breeding efforts to the unique characteristics of marginal environments