S HIFTING F OCUS FROM U.S. T ECHNOLOGICAL D OMINANCE TO U.S. A LLIED D OMINANCE Elizabeth Royall Decisive Analytics Corporation

Is Next-Gen Tech the Only Savior of U.S. Military & Tech Dominance? “U.S. Military Worries About Losing Hi-Tech Edge”—AFP, 2015 “U.S. Military Readiness, for War, Competitive Edge Worsening” –Reuters, 2014

U.S. Military Dominance TechnologyManpowerAlliesTrainingStrategy Strengthening All the Tools in the Toolbox

Diversified, Complex Threats PACOM Aggressive China, contested East & South China Sea, North Korea CENTCOM Operations in Iraq & Afghanistan, terrorism, sectarian fighting EUCOM Revanchist Russia, energy security, terrorism AFRICOM Restive terrorism & insurgencies, poor governance SOUTHCOM Insurgencies and terrorist groups, organized crime & drug trade NORTHCOM Cyber threat, fly bys by Russia & China, terrorism

A Century of Coalition Operations Allied & Partner operations are common and growing

Partners vs. Allies Allies Have signed & ratified a Mutual Defense Treaty (e.g. NATO, Australia, Japan, Thailand, Peru) Partners May have varying levels of political and/or military relationships with the U.S., may contribute troops to U.S. operations, but the U.S. has no legal obligation to defend if attacked (e.g. Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, Mexico, Egypt) The United States has 48 treaty allies mostly under NATO or the Rio Pact (the Americas)

Why Focus on U.S. Sole Dominance? Amid diversified, mutating threats and a constrained defense budget, the United States must prioritize allied over sole dominance, allies over partners, and technologies and mechanisms that support allied dominance over those that solely benefit the United States.

Where are the Vulnerabilities?

Patching the Holes: Prioritizing Fixing Vulnerabilities Exigent Low Capacity Allies High High Capacity Allies Medium Strategically Important Partners

PACOM Example of Prioritization Exigent Low Capacity Allies The Philippines & Thailand High High Capacity Treaty Allies Australia, Japan, South Korea Medium Strategically Important Partners Brunei, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam

Technologies to Empower Alliances Information-Sharing Platforms with High-Tech Security & Low Tech Usability Visibility for an Allied Common Operating Picture Foreign Comparative Testing

Targeted Foreign Military & Commercial Sales Engineer & Scientist Exchange Programs Logistics Cooperation &Planning Concentrated on Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief (HA/DR) Non-Technology Areas to Build Capability

Enhancing DoD’s Partnership-Building Capacity Expanding International Armaments Cooperation Increasing R&D in Technologies to Strengthen Alliances

Strengthening Allied Defense to Protect U.S. Dominance Strengthening Allies, particularly weaker Allies, mitigates U.S. vulnerabilities while providing a greater deterrent value and protecting U.S. dominance

Questions?