The Conflict Between the trend of Living in Empty Nests and Changes of Self-Supporting Ability of Chinese Elderly Zhenwu Zhai Population and Development Studies Center, People ’ s University of China

China Society:Rapid Changing Economy High Growth rate for more than 20 years GDP per Capita quadrupled Market economy(reform) Society Multi-structure Gap increasing between rich and poor

China Society:Rapid Changing Population Fertility decline Migration and flowing peasant-workers High Sex ratio Aging

Status and Trend of Self- Supporting Ability Data The healthy longevity survey in china, 2000( HLS) The sampling survey of the aged population in china,2000, (SAP) Census Data Survey on supporting system for elderly,1992 （ SSE ）

Self-supporting ability Status of Medical care security Daily care and nursing service available Economic status Current situation Compare with 1992 Depending on Children-support as First Choice Main income source

Status of Rural Elderly Entitled to Medical Security(SAP) YesNo Public Medical expense Commercial medicare Cooperate Medical care Others

Rural Elderly in Need of Daily Life by Age Group （ % ） Total Total100.0 No Yes No Answer Data Source: SAP,2000

Community home nursing service available,hire and demand status of rural elderly answer% Not available95.4 Available4.4 Not used98.7 Ever used0.9 Not need79.5 Need20.4

Rural Elderly Feeling Their Savings Enough for Self-support by Age(%) Total Total100.0 No Yes No Answe r Data Source: SAP,2000

Elderly Feeling Their Savings Enough for Self-support by Area(%) RuralUrban Total100.0 No Yes No Answer Data Source: SAP,2000

Self-rated on economic status of Aged population by Area (1992&2000) YearArea Have a Surplus Just Enough Rather Difficult Very DifficultTotal 2000 Urba n Rural Urba n Rural Data sourse:(1),SAP, 2000 （ 2 ） SCSSE,1992

Rural Elderly Depending on Children- support as First Choice, by Age(%) Total Total100.0 First choice Second choice Third choice Fourth choice Data Source: SAP,2000

Rural Elderly Depending on Children- support as First Choice, by Gender(%) TotalMaleFemale Total100.0 First choice Second choice Third choice Fourth choice Data Source: SAP,2000

Main Income Sources of Elderly by Age(%) Main Source Total Labor Income Pension Support by Other Family Member Others Data Source :The Fifth Census,2000

Income Sources of Elderly by Age(%)

Income Sources of Elderly by Area & Gender(%) Data Source :The Fifth Census,2000 Main Source CityTownRural MaleFemaleMale Femal e Male Femal e Total100 Labor Income Pension Support by Other Family Members Basic Living Security Others

Income Source of Elderly by Area(%),1994 &2000 Main Source cityruralcityrural Total100 Labor Income Pension Support by Other Family Member Others

Self-supporting ability Very low level of Status of Medical care security Daily care and nursing service from community NOT available Economic status: not improved much since 1992 in rural Heavily Depending on Children-support Main income source:still from family and own work Society changes,but nochang of self- supporting ability

What the trend of empty nest?

Empty nest family status(%), census data

Distribution of empty nest （ % ） 2000 census data

Distribution of Activities of Daily Living of the Elders by Living Arrangement(%) Activity of daily livingAlone With spouse only In a nursingTotal Fully independent Relatively independent Relatively dependent Fully dependent Total Data source: HLS,2000

Increase of Rural Empty Nest Family 1982 （ 60 ）、 1997 、 1999 、 2001 empty nest family （ % ） year 空巢家庭 Non empty nest family empty nest family alone Only with spouse Data source:1982 census ； 1997 、 1999 、 2001 pop sampling survey

Trend of empty nest family Nuclear family increase in rural(independent) Young people flow to urban 140 million flowing population Staying at home: ” ” Lower fertility, higher probability of empty family due to fewer children Early age of ending childbearing, early age facing empty nest percentage of empty nest family will increase rapidly in the future

Conclusion Conflict between trend of empty nest family and unimproved self supporting ability of elderly High risk if fully depending on children Rural also needs community service system Must establish social security in rural soon Principle: coverage first, level second Must take action now, otherwise elderly will not face a better life, but relative worse one in the future, the older, the higher risk of facing empty nest, and the worse.

Thank you