Impact of 1st June visa changes on international arrivals to South Africa – Analysis by WTTC Knowledge Partner, ForwardKeys

Definitions and methodology Analysis is based on Air Reservation Data property of ForwardKeys® as of 15thSeptember Database contains reservations handled via the main GDS worldwide. Database updated as of 13 th September 2015 Arrival history: 1 st September 2014 to 30 th August Arrivals: the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific time frame. Source Market: Total International Total International Arrivals: international arrivals who stayed in South Africa for at least one night; (passengers in transit or South Africans returning home have been excluded from the results) Family Segment analysis Length of stay between 1 and 3 weeks Pax per booking between 3 to 9 passengers

Total market analysis Total international arrivals in South Africa fell from -6.8% up to 31 st May, to -10.6% from 1 st June to 30 August. Before the changes on 1 st June, the family segment was the only segment growing for international arrivals to South Africa. Total projected bookings for the period of September to November continue to show a year on year decline (- 3.4%), with significant drops from a number of key source markets including France, Germany, Netherlands, Australia and Brazil.

Total international arrivals to South Africa faced YOY decline of 6.8% in period Sep 2014 to May 2015… ©Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved

However…total international arrivals from June 1 to August 31st 2015 faced an even deeper decline YOY (-11%) ©Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved

ForwardKeys’ projection of total international arrivals to South Africa over next 3 full months Sep – Nov, shows a decline of 3.4% for the same period last year*. *estimate error of 5.95% (MAPE = Mean Absolute Percent Error) ©Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved