0 The Sudan Key characteristics: About 35 million people and one of the largest countries in Africa About 2/3 (25 million) live in the North, and speak Arabic 10 million in the south are divided among hundreds of ethnicities Previously colonized by Egypt and Britain The Sudan has had a civil war for all but 10 years since independence in 1956 About 2 million have died in civil conflict, with about 4 million IDPs Oil exports began in 1999

1 Geography of the Sudan Oil region Urban areas Pastoralists Sedentary agriculture Muslim Non-Muslim

2 Historical North-South relations Long history of the North trading slaves from the South into Egypt Egypt colonized the Sudan beginning in 1820 The British got involved through Egypt to stem French influence in Africa, formally colonizing the Sudan in 1899 and running the North and South as separate colonies The South has primarily been used by the North for resources and plunder, leading to Southern underdevelopment The South was kept under control through strategic military positions, and “native administration” Adut was abducted as a slave at age 7

3 The beginnings of the first Sudanese war ( ) The beginning Failure to agree on a Constitution The British consolidated the North and South beginning in 1946 The South feared Northern dominance in an independent Sudan and were poorly represented in Khartoum (no credible commitments to self- government or federalism) Began with the Torit Mutiny just before independence (1955) Exiled rebels coalesced in 1960 and called themselves Anyanya (SANU) Largely formed by Equatorians Platform of “self-determination” A rebel movement develops Two big issues remained unresolved: –Federalism –Religion of state Electoral politics ended in 1958 with a military takeover (General Abbud) that initiated Islamicization of the South

4 The conclusion of the first Sudanese war ( ) The rebels split Southern exclusion The military government falls in 1965 and rebels are invited to talks on the future of the South Some worked inside the government for a federal solution, while others remained exiled to press for self-determination Military takeover in 1969 (Nimairi) sought resolution to the Southern problem, but was divided on the solution Revolutionary council kept fighting in the South and Nimairi’s coalition was vulnerable The rebels consolidated themselves and had a series of big wins The road to peace The South was denied real participation in the new government (1965) but was repressed The Southern rebels fought hard during a period of government instability Active Islamizication driven by internal Northern politics

5 The Addis Ababa agreement and regional government Addis Ababa Agreement (1972) Negotiations had a precondition of a United Sudan Allowed for a regional assembly and regional taxation Southern Command to have equal numbers of Northern and Southern troops South had little power over economic planning Challenges with Regional Government ( ) Elections were regularly influenced by Nimeiri Only ¼ of the allocated development budget reached the South (Jonglei) Disputes over regional borders Disputes over exploitation of newly discovered oil fields Insecurity of the rebels in the new National Army Internal rivalry over Dinka domination

6 The beginnings of the second Sudanese war (1983-) Nimairi’s shift Rise of the SPLA Jafar Nimairi had been president from 1971, but made a sharp turn towards Islamism in 1981 Enacted a conservative brand of Islamic law (shari’a) throughout Sudan Dissolved the Southern Regional Government in 1983, violating the Addis Ababa accords Nimairi was overthown in 1985, and replaced with an elected government (Sadiq al-Mahdi) Began with army mutinies in 1983, after Southern soldiers were being transferred North Sudan People’s Liberation Army grew out of former Anyanya rebels, led by John Garang Dominantly Southern, led by Dinka, but wanted a unified new Sudan Started as a Marxist movement, and morphed into a minority rights movement Supported first by Ethiopia, and then by Uganda and Eritrea

7 How the second Sudanese war played out State sponsorship of militias Northern priorities The state gave arms and support to tribal and other rebel groups to fight the SPLA (Nuer, Equatorians, and Anyanya 2) Support pastoralist cattle raiding in SPLA areas Allowed the government to fight through proxies and to demonstrate internal Southern fighting Keep the SPLA unified Prevent civilian defections through indiscriminate violence in contested areas Revolution or independence? Big rebel gains in the late 80s and early 90s Southern priorities Create a unified Islamic state Protect and exploit oil resources Create a cheap labor pool for big investment schemes Maintain political dominance (Umma vs. DUP vs. NIF)

8 After the 1989 coup d’etat Led by Omar al-Bashir, and his Islamist sidekick Hasan al-Turabi Done to preempt a peace agreement with the South Increasing pressure on the SPLA after they lose their Ethiopian bases in 1991 Massive internal displacement The SPLA-Nasir revolts against Garang’s leadership and gets state support, creating ethnic infighting The SPLA negotiates with an exiled opposition (National Democratic Alliance) Nuer civil war demise of the Nasirists An alliance of the military and NIF Omar al-Bashir Hasan al-Turabi

9 The Nairobi peace settlement (2005) Key Agreements: The South will have autonomy for 6 years, followed by a referendum on independence in 2011 Separate armed forces until the 6 year mark Income from oil revenues is to be shared Government jobs are split in favor of the North Islamic law in all the North, with an assembly to determine the fate of Islamic law in the South Negotiations began in 2002

10 Darfur and other civil wars Marginalized Muslim wars Darfur Nuba mountains campaign on religious grounds Northern proxy wars against marginalized Muslims to acquire land for Arabs Displacement of marginalized peoples in the East Allowed the government to fight through proxies and to demonstrate internal Southern fighting Long history of autonomy from Khartoum Extended drought has led Arabs to displace settled Fur tribes and the Fur revolted Arab “janjaweed” raids have been supported by the state to: –Islamize Darfur –Support allied Arab groups –Demonstrate that rebellion will not be tolerated

11 Darfur today Government denies supporting the janjaweed and refuses UN monitors 7,000 African Union troops are there to monitor, but are attacked and stretched thin (UNAMID) A peace agreement with the SLM (but not JEM) lasted from Two Darfur rebel movements have fought the state and there is a tenuous “cease-fire” (Feb 2010) Doha peace negotiations (Dec present) have made progress but not all relevant parties have signed Proposal includes a Vice President from Darfur and autonomy in three states Coordinated attacks from air raids and janjaweed militias Up to 200,000 dead with 2 million people displaced and living in camps Refugee spillover into Chad threatens war between Sudan and Chad

12 South Sudan today Potentially wealthy given its oil reserves (debates with Sudan over pipelines) Civil war broke out in Dec 2013 after an alleged coup d’etat against President Salva Kiir by Vice President Riak Machar Led to a humanitarian crisis 10,000 deaths and 1.5 million displaced Increasingly became an ethnic conflict between Dinka and Nuer, fueled by Sudan (supporting Machar) and Uganda (supporting Kiir) Peace negotiations since October have focused on a power-sharing deal between rivals as well as federalization within South Sudan Independence referendum ballot The poorest and arguably “most failed” state in the world Divided between many ethnicities and tribes, most notably the Dinka and Nuer