Ongoing improvements in the modelling of agricultural emissions Zbigniew Klimont, Willem Asman International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Ongoing improvements 1.Moving towards N-flow model for emission calculations 2.Interactions with nitrogen policies 3.Explicit consideration of impacts of changed productivity (i.e., milk yields) on emissions of NH 3 and CH 4 4.New activity projections, also for GHGs

1. Process-based emission model Complete C and N flow included (accounting for complete impacts of measures on NH 3, N 2 O, CH 4 ) Following new processes incorporated: –CH4 emission from manure –N2O emission from manure –N2O emission from leaching of soil water –N2O emission from application of manure –Nitrate runoff –Nitrate leaching A number of model parameters defined on sub-national level (NUTS2, NVZ-nitrate vulnerable zones)

2. Interactions with nitrogen policies CAP reform (EEA study + new CAPRI projections) IPPC Directive (new data from EUROSTAT on IPPC farms) Biomass Action plan (new PRIMES + CAPRI scenarios) Nitrate Directive (new emission factors and control measures + model extension) Water Framework Directive (new emission factors and control measures + model extension) Further sensitivity analysis of IPPC thresholds and potential extension to cattle

3. Productivity changes: Milk yield vs. NH 3 emission factor per cow

4: New activity projections Comparison of agricultural activity projections CAFE, CAPRI Mid-term review, (EEA study), national projections

Projections of agricultural GHG emissions for 2015 relative to 1990, using GAINS emission factors