2 nd OECD Environmental Outlook Presentation to UNECE WGEMA 13 June 2006 Roberto Martín-Hurtado

First OECD Environmental Outlook (2001)  Focussed on problem identification, some policy analysis.  Identified red, yellow and green light environmental pressures and issues.  Basis for developing the OECD Environmental Strategy for the First Decade of the 21st Century, adopted by Environment Ministers in 2001.

EPOC DISCUSSED & APPROVED:  Draft annotated outline  Modelling framework  Timeline for producing the report  Consultations with OECD Groups and external partners FOCUS OF THE 2 nd OUTLOOK:  Economic & environmental baseline extended to 2030  Greater focus on analysis of policy simulations  OECD and non-OECD countries covered

ANNOTATED OUTLINE Executive Summary & Introduction Part 1 = baseline to 2030  Drivers of change: economy, demography, globalisation, consumption & production, technological innovation, material flows.  Environmental developments: climate change, air quality, biodiversity, land use change, fresh water.  Cross-cutting issues: health & environment, urban issues.  Regional implications: regional descriptions, key variants.

ANNOTATED OUTLINE (contd.) Part 2 = policy simulations & analysis  Sectoral: agriculture, transport, energy, selected industries. Main sectoral trends; analysis of specific policy options & simulations.  Policy framework conditions: institutional capacity, partnerships, implementation, costs of inaction.  Coherent policy package: pulling all the policies together, recommendations. Policy Conclusions Annexes

CO-OPERATION AND CO-ORDINATION  Internal: EPOC main oversight, WPGSP on modelling. Extensive consultation with OECD Committees & Groups; working closely with colleagues in ECO, AGR, IEA, etc.  External: co-ordinating with other groups undertaking long-term environmental analysis (e.g. EEA, UNEP, World Bank, IPCC).

TIMETABLE Draft chapters - Additional environmental model components - Finalise the (economic & environmental) baseline - Plan & run policy simulations - Review chapters & baseline with OECD Groups Run policy “package” simulations - Finalise report with EPOC - Publish end Input to the 2008 EPOC Ministerial Meeting