1 Initial Investigation Red River of the North Floods March, April 2009 OHD Mike Smith, Victor Koren, Ziya Zhang, Naoki Mizukami, Brian Cosgrove, Zhengtao.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Analysis of Hydrographs
Advertisements

Water in a river drainage system
PHYSICALLY BASED MODELING OF EXTREME FLOOD GENERATION AND ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD RISK L. S. Kuchment, A. N. Gelfan and V. N. Demidov Water Problems Institute.
INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots» Tomsk 2004 PROBLEMS OF EXTREME.
Frozen Ground Model Cold Regions Workshop 2004 Brian Connelly North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, MN.
Metamorphism Due To Direct Weather Effects Learning Outcomes Understand the effects of direct weather on the snowpack. Understand melt-freeze and its effect.
Reduction of Streamflow From Upstream Ice Formation a.k.a. “Ice Bite” Brian Connelly North Central River Forecast Center Chanhassen, Minnesota.
The Water Cycle and how it affects weather. Water is essential to life on earth.
Evaluating Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Water Resource Availability of Upper Awash Sub-basin, Ethiopia rift valley basin. By Mekonnen.
Monitoring the hydrologic cycle in the Sierra Nevada mountains.
River Hydrographs Why do we use hydrographs?
Construction And Analysis Of Hydrographs. Hydrograph Record of River Discharge over a period of time River Discharge = cross sectional area rivers mean.
Analysis of Hydrographs
4th International Symposium on Flood Defence Toronto, Canada May 6, Red River of the North Flood 10 Years Later.
Dennis P. Lettenmaier Lan Cuo Nathalie Voisin University of Washington Climate Impacts Group Climate and Water Forecasts for the 2009 Water Year October.
Construction Analysis Hydrographs
The Hydrologic (Water) Cycle. Surface Water Oceans Rivers and streams Lakes and ponds Springs – groundwater becomes surface water.
Hydrological Modeling FISH 513 April 10, Overview: What is wrong with simple statistical regressions of hydrologic response on impervious area?
CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service October 18, 2006.
Lecture 12 Regional climate change: The Arctic and California.
CPC’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook & Future Plans April 20, 2010 Brad Pugh, CPC.
Applying Methods for Assessing the Costs and Benefits of CCA 2 nd Regional Training Agenda, 30 September – 4 October 2013 Priyanka Dissanayake- Regional.
WINTER STORMS By: Hannah Winter Storms Moisture evaporates in the air. Snow falls into warm air and melts into rain. An ice storm is a type of winter.
Changes in Freeze-Thaw and Permafrost Dynamics and Their Hydrological Implication over the Russian Arctic Drainage Basin Tingjun Zhang and R. G. Barry.
Part I The hydrologic cycle.  This is also called the water cycle  It is the recycling of the water between the oceans, land and atmosphere  There.
The Water Cycle May The Water Cycle There are 5 processes at work in the water cycle. Condensation Precipitation Infiltration Runoff Evapotranspiration.
DO NOT WRITE WHAT”S IN RED THE WATER CYCLE.  The WATER CYCLE: Model of the circulation of water between the oceans, atmosphere and land.
Construction And Analysis Of Hydrographs Hours from start of rain storm Discharge (m 3 /s) Base flow Through flow Overland.
Construction And Analysis of Hydrographs ©Microsoft Word clipart.
Operational Evaluation of VIIRS Satellite Products for River Forecasting Mike DeWeese Development and Operations Hydrologist North Central River Forecast.
1 Mike Smith, Victor Koren, Ziya Zhang, Brian Cosgrove, Zhengtao Cui, Naoki Mizukami OHD/HL Hydrologic Science and Modeling Branch Introduction Lecture.
Preliminary Applications of the HL-RDHM within the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Ed Clark, Hydrologist Presented July 26 th, 2007 as part of the.
National Weather Service 1 Operational Hydrologic Forecasts Challenges at the North Central River Forecast Center 18 November 2013 First Vinogradov’s Conference.
CE 424 HYDROLOGY 1 Instructor: Dr. Saleh A. AlHassoun.
NE Drought Conditions CARC Update: April 2010 Mark Svoboda and Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln Al Dutcher,
An Introduction to Hydrology L.O. To understand the drainage basin hydrological system Lesson 1 The Drainage Basin Hydrological Cycle.
San Juan Basin. San Juan-Pagosa Springs(PSPC2) Upper ( ) Middle ( ) Lower ( ) San Juan-Pagosa Springs(PSPC2)
RRB pages DO NOT WRITE WHAT”S IN ORANGE THE WATER CYCLE.
Engineering Hydrology (ECIV 4323)
Construction And Analysis of Hydrographs ©Microsoft Word clipart Ballakermeen High School.
Floodplain Management SESSION 3 Stream Systems on Dynamic Earth Meteorological Framework Prepared By Donald R. Reichmuth, PhD.
HYDROGRAPH SEPARATION
From RegentsEarth.com How to play “Earth Science Battleship” Divide the class into two teams, Red and Purple. Choose which team goes first. The main.
NWSRFS Snow Modeling Cold Regions Workshop November 2004 Andrea Holz NCRFC.
Preliminary Applications of the HL-RDHM within the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Ed Clark, Hydrologist Presented July 26 th, 2007 as part of the.
Parameterisation by combination of different levels of process-based model physical complexity John Pomeroy 1, Olga Semenova 2,3, Lyudmila Lebedeva 2,4.
Hydro-Thermo Dynamic Model: HTDM-1.0
The Hydrological Cycle
Water Every Drop Counts!. Earth’s Water Supply 2 Groups of Fresh Water 1.) Surface (above ground) 2.) Ground (below the ground surface)
Hydrologic Forecasting Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of.
San Juan Basin. San Juan-Pagosa Springs(PSPC2) Upper ( ) Middle ( ) Lower ( ) San Juan-Pagosa Springs(PSPC2)
2010 Flood in the Red River Valley Steve Robinson USGS Hydrologist North Dakota WSC.
The Hydrosphere all of the water on or near the Earth’s surface covers almost 75% of the Earth’s surface includes water in the oceans, lakes, rivers,
Nicolson Institute - Geography Department The objectives of this PowerPoint presentation and the accompanying work sheet are to - introduce storm hydrographs.
HYDROGRAPHS: CONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS 01/10/2016.
HYDROLOGY Lecture 10 Unit Hydrograph
Flood Hydrographs How do we know if a river will flood?
Analysis of Hydrographs
Construction Analysis Hydrographs
Coupled modelling of soil thaw/freeze dynamics and runoff generation in permafrost landscapes, Upper Kolyma, Russia Lebedeva L.1,4, Semenova O.2,3 1Nansen.
Why is water important to the health of the planet?
Analysis of Hydrographs
Hydrology.
150 years of land cover and climate change impacts on streamflow in the Puget Sound Basin, Washington Dennis P. Lettenmaier Lan Cuo Nathalie Voisin University.
Hydrologic Forecasting
EARTH’S WATERS: 1.2: Fresh Water Flows and Freezes on Earth
Weekly lesson objectives
Analysis of Hydrographs
Analysis of Hydrographs
Engineering Hydrology (ECIV 4323)
Presentation transcript:

1 Initial Investigation Red River of the North Floods March, April 2009 OHD Mike Smith, Victor Koren, Ziya Zhang, Naoki Mizukami, Brian Cosgrove, Zhengtao Cui NCRFC Mike DeWeese, Andrea Holz, Brian Connelly, Jim Husaby

2 3/28/ ft 4/16/ ft Observed Stage at Fargo, ND Flood Stage 18.0 ft Top of Levee 41.0 ft

3 ‘typical NCRFC forecast’ Observed and Forecast Stages Red River at Fargo, ND. Water stored on surface or in frozen soil? Stage NCRFC: “Where did the water go?” March 28 This forecast verified well but dropped out early April 16 Observed stage NCRFC most concerned about the over-prediction of the second crest

4 Hypothesis Sudden rise in air temperatures combined with rain March melted the (record) snow pack, leading to major flooding. Some melt water ponded on the flat terrain, possibly blocked by frozen culverts Sudden severe drop in air temperature March 25 froze the ponded surface water As the frozen soil and ponded water thawed out: –the ponded water infiltrated into the soil –did not immediately appear in observed 2 nd crest –came out as baseflow (Mike DeWeese said it was a very long recession, if not a record). NCRFC: “Where did the water go?”

5 Hypothesis Testing 1.Meteorological and field observations –Soil temperature (HPRCC) –Air temperature (HPRCC) 2.Experiments with SAC-HT and ponded water 3.Water balance simulations

6 Stations from the High Plains Regional Climate Center 1. Meteorological and Field Observations Fargo Lisbon Fingal Ekre Leonard Wahpeton Oakes Wyndmere Sabin Britton Wild Rice River

Air temp very cold, soil temp not affected Indicates soil possibly covered by water Sudden warm up, snow pack melts; then sudden refreezing Air temp very cold, soil temp affected 1.Meteorological and Field Observations Observed Air and Soil Temperature March and April 2009 Stage at Fargo, ft. March April Red at Fargo Stage

8 2. Experiments with SAC-HT and Ponded Water Use point temperature data at Wahpeton, ND Run SAC-HT with three depths of ponded water at a point in hypothetical experiment. Note effects on soil temperature Note effects on frozen ground and percolation

9 Water on the Soil Surface in SAC-HT Soil column Water on the surfaceLayer 0 Layer 1 Layer 2 Layer 3 Layer 0 does not affect the water supply to SAC-HT but changes the atmosphere-soil heat exchange, and as a result the soil freezing process 2. Experiments with SAC-HT and Ponded Water Layer 0 is normally at 0.58 porosity. ‘Fill’ this porosity with 3 levels of water: 2.6, 11.6, and 12.2 mm of water

10 Discharge at Wahpeton USGS Gauge September, 2008 to June, 2009 Air temperature and soil temperature for 3 depths of ponded water 2. Experiments with SAC-HT and Ponded Water Month Discharge, cfs Month Temperature, C Red River Soil Freezing Analysis

11 2. Experiments with SAC-HT and Ponded Water Red River Soil Freezing Analysis Month Wahpeton, ND. Ice in Layer 0 Ice Content, mm Upper Zone Saturation, % Sudden Warm-up

12 Red River Soil Freezing Analysis: Second Crest 2. Experiments with SAC-HT and Ponded Water March - April Wahpeton, ND. Wahpeton Flow, cfs Rain/melt, mm Temperature, C

13 Red River Soil Freezing Analysis: Second Crest March - April 2. Experiments with SAC-HT and Ponded Water Wahpeton, ND. Wahpeton Flow, cfs Upper zone saturation, % Ice Content, mm

14 Red River Soil Freezing Analysis: Second Crest Percolation Total Runoff Surface Runoff The deeper the water/ice on surface, the more the soil remains thawed and therefore percolates more water: Very sensitive Less runoff with deeper layer of surface water Case of 12.2 mm of ponded water 2. Experiments with SAC-HT and Ponded Water Wahpeton, ND March - April Percolation, mm/hr Total Runoff, mm/hr Surface Runoff, mm/hr

15 Preliminary Conclusions Soil temperatures dependent on surface water/ice Frozen water in the soil can have a large impact on percolation SAC-HT runs indicate that surface water could have percolated into the soil rather than running off into the channel 2. Experiments with SAC-HT and Ponded Water

16 Next Steps with Soil Freezing Analysis Modify SAC-HT to input amount of surface water; currently hard coded. Run analyses over basins not just point

17 3. Water Balance Simulations NCRFC recommended using Wild Rice River at Abercrombie, ND to illustrate problems –Major tributary to Red River above Fargo –Record flooding during event Method for initial analysis: –Extract RFC operational MAP, MAT time series for period October 1, 2008 to June 1, 2009 (done) –Run existing (no SAC-HT) RFC segments over period Oct. 1, 2008 to June 1, 2009; confirm that we’re getting same results as NCRFC (ongoing) –Note behavior of simulated snow pack and runoff. –Perform detailed water balance computations using NWSRFS WATERBAL operation; compute: Total precipitation: rain and snowfall Total evapotranspiration Change in storage Total runoff –Re-run with SAC-HT –Extend analyses to other basins above Fargo, ND.

18 Wild Rice River Above Abercrombie, ND Fargo Abercrombie

19 Finding Existing SAC-HT can be run now as a diagnostic tool to indicate frozen/ponded water at surface (must start further back in time to catch the dynamics)

20 Acknowledgements We would like to thank Natalie Umphlett of the HPRCC for graciously providing access to their data