Scenario Planning 11 th and 12 th July 2011 Atul Patel Community Cohesion

Journey to Community Cohesion 60s Civil Rights Movement - US 70s RRA s Brixton riots Scarman Inquiry 90s European Directives on Age, Religion and Sexual Orientation Murder of Stephen Lawrence Bradford, Burnley, Oldham riots 9/11 7/7 Migration from A8 countries Equalities Act 2006 CEHR Community Cohesion

Community Cohesion Important 2001Disturbances - some areas and communities segregated and polarised. Some of the policies and initiatives had reinforced this segregation. –‘Separate educational arrangements, community and voluntary bodies, employment, places of worship, language, social and cultural networks, mean that many communities operate on the basis of a series of parallel lives’ - ‘Community Cohesion – a report of the independent review team’ published in A new approach and new thinking needed.

Community Cohesion Important – Cont … Increase in population The profile of many communities keeps changing A wide range of cultures and languages Threat to community cohesion from ‘violent extremism’ Recession and unemployment – causing new tensions

Definition of Community Cohesion Community Cohesion is what must happen in all communities to enable different groups of people to get on well together. A key contributor to community cohesion is integration which is what must happen to enable new residents and existing residents to adjust to one another. Cohesion Delivery Framework January 2009 Communities and Local Government: London

Community Cohesion and the “Big Society” Community Cohesion –A society in which there is a common vision and sense of belonging by all communities –A society in which the diversity of people’s backgrounds and circumstances is appreciated and valued. Big Society –Taking action to support and encourage social responsibility, volunteering and philanthropy and make it easier for people to come together to improve their communities and help one another

Community Cohesion and the “Big Society” Cont … What is the Big Society? The programme has five main parts: 1.Give communities more powers 2.Encourage people to take an active role in their communities 3.Transfer power from central to local government 4.Support co-ops, mutuals, charities and social enterprises 5.Publish government data Source: ICoCo – Institute of Community Cohesion

New Labour – Coalition Dimensions New Labour: policy placed duties providers to follow. In terms of community and identity: equalities duties, citizenship education, community cohesion, preventing violent extremism etc Coalition policy: Devolving autonomy to the end user. It is people who run and use services, not bureaucrats and politicians, who inspire improvement and better outcomes

Principles on Delivery of Community Cohesion Cohesion is relevant to all parts of the country Building cohesion has wider benefits to individuals, groups and communities Solutions are local and one size does not fit all Cohesion is about all parts of the community, not just race and faith issues

Improving cohesion is about multiple actions Good practice in one place may not be transferable to another – but it may inspire an action that will work in another place Delivery is about common sense solutions that will help people get along better, that is what will make the vision a reality Principles on Delivery of Community Cohesion Cont …

Welcome 11 th and 12 th July 2011 Scenario Planning

Developing Strategy – Strategic Planning Cycle 1. Getting the direction right 2. Environmental analysis 3. Options and choices 4. Planning 5. Implementation 6. Evaluation

Scenario Planning (Futures Planning) A process of developing a view of alternative futures in order to craft a resilient strategy It is process of anticipating not predicting It is a sophisticated environmental analysis tool - used in stage two of the strategic planning cycle (see previous silde)

Stages of Scenario Planning 1.Get your focus question 2.Determine the driving forces 3.Isolate the critical uncertainties 4.Develop the scenario matrix 5.Create scenario narratives 6.Look for patterns and insights 7.Incorporate in strategies and plans

Planning Matrix High impact/critical Lower impact UncertainPredictable

Scenario Matrix – An Example Diverse but turbulent community Diverse but stable community Fast economic recovery Slow Economic recovery