Toward a vulnerability/adaptation methodology Thomas E. Downing Stuart Franklin Sukaina Bharwani Cindy Warwick Gina Ziervogel Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford With contributions from Mike Brklacich, Carleton University Kirstin Dow, SEI and other colleagues

From theory to practice Political ecology of vulnerable food systems Actor Network Theory Early warning systems Disasters … Stakeholder analysis & engagement Livelihood vulnerability & exposure Adaptation evaluation Integrated analysis Key insights Implications for methodology

Political ecology Political ecology of vulnerable food systems Vulnerability is… –General attribute of system and particular instance of exposure –Dynamic, a process –Multi-level, occurring simultaneously at different spatial scales

Actor Network Theory Vulnerability emerges from the interactions of actors Boundaries of assessment are determined by character of network Coupled socio-ecological systems are complex Elements need to be understood in their context Actor Network Theory Early warning systems Disasters …

Stakeholder analysis & engagement Identify the actors –Motivations, constitution, regulation –Range of adaptive strategies and options –Capacities and constraints –Social networks and institutions Participatory, mental mapping of problem space Chapati exercise Stakeholder analysis & engagement

Livelihood vulnerability & exposure Priority complexes of vulnerability and hazards –Multiple stresses –Links to driving forces of vulnerability –Focus on reasons for concern: the priority outcomes of vulnerability –Gaps in knowledge Sensitivity matrix Links to climate scenarios and socio-economic scenarios Livelihood vulnerability & exposure

Livelihood sensitivity matrix CLIMATIC HAZARDSExposure Index DroughtDry spellsFloodsWarm spells ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Soil water ▲■▲◦ 75 Water supply ▲○■◦ 60 Wood fuel □◦○◦ 35 Grazing/fodder ■○■◦ 55 LIVELIHOODS Smallholders ▲□□◦ 60 Emerging farmers □○○◦ 40 Traders □◦■◦ 45 Impact Index

Evaluating adaptation Range of choice and potential effectiveness –Options –Strategic planning –Adaptive capacity Matrix inventory and checklist Multi-criteria assessment Decision support Adaptation evaluation

Integrating analyses Participatory evaluation of alternative futures Vulnerability profiles Risk assessment Participatory policy exercises; role playing Multi-agent modelling/integrated assessment Integrated analysis

Toward a risk assessment: Reasons for concern Climate Agricultural exports National food balance Food security in vulnerable households Prolonged drought risks High Moderate Low Present

Conclusion Expert-stakeholder teams need a common framing and language of narratives Vulnerable food systems are complex: choosing the priority risks in actor networks is essential The end-to-end analysis should guide selection of methodology at each stage: often simple methods are powerful Political ecology of vulnerable food systems Actor Network Theory Early warning systems Disasters … Stakeholder analysis & engagement Livelihood vulnerability & exposure Adaptation evaluation Integrated analysis