FOCUS MODEL OVERVIEW CLASS FOUR Denver Regional Council of Governments July 7, 2011

Tentative Schedule Model Steps July 7 Final Model Steps/ How to Run the ModelJuly 14 Theoretical UnderpinningJuly 21(Erik) Model Steps/ SQL DatabaseJuly 28 ????August 4 Should we continue after this?

Classes are posted on the website  calResources calResources  Or google Focus travel model

Brief Interlude in the Model Steps to show operations of model  This will probably change.  Show scenario creation & scenario running.  Questions

Focus Model Flow: 28 Steps FEEDBACK

Focus Model Flow STAGE 1: Make Population And Network STAGE 2: Run GISDK to Mode Choice STAGE 3: C# Logit Models to Create Trips STAGE 4: GISDK Assignment FEEDBACK

Long term choices made  Each individual has regular work location, school location. We know how many cars a household has and how it accessible it is to various types of services.  Now we need daily choices for travel. How many trips will each person take and for what purposes?

HOME WORK STORE Next we generate tours and information about location, mode, and time.

Tour Generation Models  We generate a number of tours for seven purposes. We find out if each person has stops for each purpose  Then we look at if people go to their regular workplace or someone else. We see how many work-based subtours they take.

Tours get written into the database.

Now we need to know more information about the tours 16. Tour Time of Day Simulation (When) 17. Tour Primary Destination Choice (Where) 18. Tour Priority Assignment (Priority) 19. Tour Main Mode Choice (Mode) 20. Tour Time of Day Choice (Time)

Tour Time of Day Simulation  Tour Time of Day Simulation: Type of Model = Monte Carlo  This is a weird one!  Before we pick where a person goes and which mode they use on a tour we need a skim time period to pick from to choose how long it takes  We use a weighted random assignment of the TOUR DESTINATION ARRIVAL TIME/ TOUR DESTINATION DEPARTURE TIME based on the purpose of the tour.

Tour Time of Day Choice Example HOME STORE WORK Arrive at Tour Primary Destination at 8 am, Leave at 5 PM Then the tour gets assigned, the AM Peak skim for 8 am on the outbound, and the PM peak skim on the inbound tour half

Let’s talk about ourselves again (volunteer) Other than for work or school, where do you go (to the level of detail of an X-Y coodinate) on a typical weekday? Why? What variables about you, the transporation network, where you live, or where you work determine this?

Tour Primary Destination Choice this is hard!  Predicts: Zone and X,Y Location of Tour Primary Destination  Model Type: Multinomial Logit  Inputs: (what do you think) Tour Purpose Number of Jobs by Type Tour Time of Day Number of Jobs by Type Person Age Income Distance/Accessibility from Home to Destination

Then we know where the tour starts and ends.

Tour Priority Assignment  What is the rank order of the tours in your day? From most important to least important.  This helps determine which tours get their mode and time assigned first.  For example for full time workers, the most important tour is the first one to work. For students, it’s the first one to school.