Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Future Prospects for Oil Production for New America Foundation July.

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Presentation transcript:

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Future Prospects for Oil Production for New America Foundation July 12, 2012| Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator

Non-OECD liquid fuels use is expected to surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future total liquids consumption million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Projections History 2010 Other non-OECD OECD Americas OECD % 19% 35% 41 Non-OECD 46 2 Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012

Non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels growth league tables Adam Sieminski July 12,

Tight oil production for selected plays in March 2012 approaches 900,000 barrels per day Adam Sieminski July 12, thousand barrels of oil per day Source: HPDI, Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through March, 2012.

Tight oil resource potential and production remain highly uncertain High TRR Reference High EUR Tight oil production million barrels per day Low EUR 5 Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012

U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic production – including biofuels – and greater efficiency 6 U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 EURTRR % 5% 36% 10% Natural gas plant liquids Other non- petroleum supply Biofuels Net petroleum imports Domestic including imports EUR TRREUR supply Reference Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012

U.S. dependence on imported petroleum continues to decline U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day ProjectionsHistory 2010 Consumption Domestic supply Net petroleum imports 49% 36% 60% 2005 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Adam Sieminski July 12, % Extended Policies High TTR

AEO2012 scenarios show wide range of outcomes 8 Reference case High and low economic growth (2 cases) High and low oil price (2) High and low estimated ultimate recovery cases and high technically recoverable resources (3) Integrated high and low technology (applied to demand sectors; renewable; and electric power and refinery sector fossil; and nuclear) (2) Policy related: Extended Policy, No Sunset, No Greenhouse Gas Concern, carbon dioxide allowance fee ($15 and $25), and 5-year investment recovery with reference and with low natural gas prices (7) Proposed light-duty vehicle CAFE standards; advanced battery technology; heavy-duty truck natural gas potential (3) Adam Sieminski July 12, 2012

For more information Adam Sieminski July 12, U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | Short-Term Energy Outlook | Annual Energy Outlook | International Energy Outlook | Monthly Energy Review | EIA Information Center Our average response time is within three business days. (202) hour automated information line about EIA and frequently asked questions.