by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering) Princeton University Presented at ITS-NJ Annual Meeting October 30, 2015 Rutgers University Evolution of Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS) Past, Present & Future

Past There seems to be a new Transportation Technology realization… What started out in “1939” as Automated Highways

AHS: Automated Highway Systems: “Waterloo”: No feasible way to get started 1997

V2V: Connected Vehicles: “Waterloo”: Little value until a substantial market penetration is achieved. Again a non-starter

Automated Vehicles (rather than Automated Highways) : Focus on making one Automated Vehicle co-exist with today’s infrastructure and human drivers; then simply replicate Real beauty is in its “autonomy” (forgo the “Systems” concept) : Each replicated vehicle benefits (Cost of Replication is Small ) ! Real beauty is in its “autonomy” (forgo the “Systems” concept) : Each replicated vehicle benefits (Cost of Replication is Small ) ! CityMobil2

NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14) NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14) The Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms are on the verge of being able to Drive as well as the best of us without needing any infrastructure improvements in enough places at enough times to make a substantial difference in Safety. Present: Safety is an Issue!

But you say… Alain… Safety doesn’t Sell! Look… Few drive Volvos, Public-sector Mandates and Threatens : Up until now we have focused on crash mitigation (This saves lives, but hasn’t reduced costs  )

NHTSA: Car Crashes cost US $871B/yr (~ $2,800/person 5/29/14) Buses: The Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms are on the verge of being able to Drive as well as the best of us without needing any infrastructure improvements in enough places at enough times to make a substantial difference in Safety. Present: Safety is an Issue!

More Viable Future:

More Viable Future:

More Viable Future:

Driving a Bus is NOT Simple and Very Stressful Requires Continuous Diligence 2 bus drivers in NYC arrested for striking a pedestrian while simply trying to do their job Driving is one of the most dangerous occupation More Viable Future: For Example

Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Driving a Bus is NOT Simple and Very Stressful Requires Continuous Diligence 2 bus drivers in NYC arrested for striking a pedestrian while simply trying to do their job Driving is one of the most dangerous occupation Drivers need help and ACA systems are available to help! Transit Unions & OSHA need to be demanding deployment of ACAS on all buses! The Political Case

Bus Collisions are Expensive! Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case

Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Trend is NOT Good! The Business Case

2013 Nationwide Bus Casualty and Liability Expense Source FTA NTD Casualty and Liability Amount Vehicle- related 119 Fatalities 15,351 Injuries $499,872,628. Total Buses Commuter Bus (CB), Motor Bus (MB), Bus Rapid Transit (RB), Demand Responsive (DR) 80,795 Sub-Total Casualty and Liability Amount Per Bus $6,187/Bus/Year Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case

In the next five days the bus transit industry will spend $6.8 million in casualty and liability expenses Bus Collisions are Expensive! Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case

Fundamental Business Model We are near a point where: Fundamental Business Model We are near a point where: Cost of Automated Collision Avoidance Technology < Present Value {Expected Liability Savings over life of bus} Bus Collisions are Expensive! Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case

Bus Collisions are Expensive! Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case

Bus Collisions are Expensive! Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case

Plus: Lives Saved, Injuries Avoided, Disruptions Averted, and Arrests not Made All for Free!!! Bus Collisions are Expensive! Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance Near-Term Transit Opportunity: Automated Collision Avoidance The Business Case

Evolve the Sensors, Actuators and Algorithms to be Cheaper & Drive Better than the best of us without needing any infrastructure improvements in More places at More times While continuing to improve Safety, AND Revolutionize Mobility for All Substantially Reduce Energy Consumption Pollution, and Green House Gases (GHG) Future Fundamentally Strong Business Case!

But, an Enormous Amount of Work Needs to be Done

A Number of US have been Meeting: – To Leverage the Region’s Assets: Home of major NA HQ: Insurance, Auto OEM, Technology, Communications and University Research Re-purposing of PU’s Forrestal Campus, Fort Monmouth & Bell Labs – To Create the Research, Certification & Commercialization Environment: That Develops SmartDrivingTechnology (SDT) such that: SDT Price SDT < NetPresentValue { Expected {AccidentLiability w/o SDT } - Expected {AccidentLiability w SDT } } To Create Jobs while Improving Safety, Mobility and the Environment Over the Past 3 Years

We’ve created : – Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS) Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety (CARTS) – Initial Board of Governance: – Initial Focus on Automated Collision Avoidance – A Scope that includes Research Certification & Commercialization – That Spans all Road modes: Cars Buses Trucks – And Recognizes the Importance of After-market as well as OEM Over the Past 3 Years

Modal Dimension Sector Dimension CommercializationCertificationResearch Transit Cars Trucks CARTS Activity Matrix CARTS Focus: Automated Collision Avoidance CARTS Focus: Automated Collision Avoidance

Modal Dimension Sector Dimension CommercializationCertificationResearch Transit Cars Trucks Center’s Activity Tensor After-market/Retrofit OEM CARTS Focus: Automated Collision Avoidance CARTS Focus: Automated Collision Avoidance

Modal Dimension Sector Dimension Commercialization Certification Research Transit Cars Trucks Center’s Activity Tensor After-Market/Retrofit OEM Commercialization Certification Research Transit Cars Trucks After-Market/Retrofit CARTS Focus: Automated Collision Avoidance CARTS Focus: Automated Collision Avoidance

Next Steps Launch the CARTS Research PU’s Forrestal Campus, Prepare for the CARTS Certification Fort Monmouth, and Prepare for the CARTS Commercialization Bell Works

Thank You Discussion!

Just a Note:

Application of Existing Automated Lane Keeping & Intelligent Cruise Control – (What exists today in Mercedes, Volvo & Tesla) To the 3,000 buses that currently use the XBL today – 3,000 x $5,000 = $15M (0.15% of $10B) Could increase the capacity of the XBL by 50% – From 700 to 1,050 buses/hr (adding 17,500 commuters/hr = added capacity of new rail tunnel) But ONLY if the $10B spent on the new terminal is designed to accommodate this 50% increase in throughput.

Thank You Discussion!

The following slides will NOT be used

McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000 sf Support Buildings Princeton University Center for Research, Certification & Commercialization of Automated Vehicles at Fort Monmouth

McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000 sf Support Buildings Center for Automated Road Transportation Safety

Secure Test Center ~ 80 acres Secure Test Center ~ 80 acres Princeton University Center for Research, Certification & Commercialization of Automated Vehicles at Fort Monmouth

Mixed Use of Roadways in ½ the Fort ~ 1 sq. mile Mixed Use of Roadways in ½ the Fort ~ 1 sq. mile Exclusive Use Roadways Princeton University Center for Research, Certification & Commercialization of Automated Vehicles at Fort Monmouth

APM: Automated People Mover: “Waterloo” limited to serve “Few to Few” demand

PRT: Personal Rapid Transit: Attempt to serve “Many to Many” but “Waterloo” may well be the word “Personal” & Exclusive Guideway? Attempt to serve “Many to Many” but “Waterloo” may well be the word “Personal” & Exclusive Guideway?

Quality of Life 101: Important Elements Environment – Clean air, water, … Employment – “High Quality” Jobs – Correlated with Crime/Personal Safety Mobility – Personal Desire with Societal Oversight Priorities: Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, …

Founding Premise Automated Vehicle Technology can evolve such that: – If added to a single vehicle, – The probabilities that this vehicle will be involved in various types of accidents are substantially reduced. Overall the expected Liability Cost Savings ($ L ) attributed to those avoided accidents > Installed Cost ($ C ) of that Technology

Founding Premise If ($ L ) > ($ C ) of that Technology Then there is an enormous Business Case for the adoption of that technology by that vehicle and every other vehicle. The technology more than pays for itself from the savings that it delivers. PLUS: The created “High Quality” Jobs, Improved Personal Safety Avoided Personal Disruptions Improved the Environment, and Arguably Improved: Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, … All Come for FREE!

Fundamental Focus of the NJ Center for Fort Monmouth: 1.Advancing AV Technologies that ($ L ) > ($ C ) – Facilitating Fundamental R&D on enabling sensor and control technologies, and Vehicle driver/rider WWW Vehicle… interface elements 2.Quantifying the Expected Accident Probability implications of those AV Technologies. – To enable positive insurance and risk mitigation interests to propel adoption that also greatly benefits 3.Testing and Certification of those AV Technologies 4.Support Technically the Public Oversight/Regulation of those AV Technologies 5.Support Technically the Commercialization of those AV Technologies

Assets We Have: 1.Enabling State Legislation S-734 passed NJ Senate 35-0 Assembly bill waiting to move. We can help.

Assets We Have: 1.Enabling State Legislation S-734 passed NJ Senate 35-0 Assembly bill waiting to move. We can help. 2.Option on Facilities McAffee Center 25 acre Campus 100,000 ft 2 office 2 large 1 st class garages Eastern Gated Test Site 80 acres Existing streets and buildings Limited use of Fort’s exiting roadways

Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000 sf Support Buildings Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth McAfee Complex 1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres

Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth Exclusive Use Roadways Area ~ 60 acres Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth Exclusive Use Roadways Area ~ 60 acres Vehicle Bays McAfee Office Building ~ 100,000 sf Support Buildings

Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth Mixed Use Roadways ½ The Fort ~ 1 sq. mile Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth Mixed Use Roadways ½ The Fort ~ 1 sq. mile Exclusive Use Roadways

Assets We Have: 1.Enabling State Legislation S-734 passed NJ Senate 35-0 Assembly bill waiting to move. We can help. 2.Option on Facilities McAffee Center Eastern Gated Test Site Limited use of Fort’s exiting roadways 3.Many interested entities Universities: Princeton, UTRC2, U Md, Monmouth, NJIT Insurance: Munich Re, WSTIP, ICNJ, NJM, Technology Co: Siemens, MobilEye, Rosco, Soterea, Lam Cloud Foundations & Corporations: DCH Autogroup, Teen Safety Foundation, Comcast, Verizon, Public & non-Profits: NJ Transit, GCTC, APTA, ATRA, Consultants: HNTB, EPS, Public Sector: NJ DoT, MVC, PANYNJ, NJTPA, L&PS

Organizational Stucture: Example: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Mission Statement The Insurance institute for highway safety is an independent, nonprofit, scientific and educational organization it identifies and evaluates ways to reduce the human and economic losses resulting from motor vehicle crashes and communicates the results of that research to the public, federal, state, and local highway and vehicle safety officials, vehicle manufacturers, insurers, the media, the research community and others (IIHS) The NJ center for automated Ft. Monmouth is an independent, nonprofit, scientific and educational organization. It advances and evaluates automated vehicle technologies to reduce motor vehicle crashes and communicates the results of that research to the public, federal, state, and local highway and vehicle safety officials, vehicle manufacturers, insurers, the media, the research community and others (NJ

Organizational Stucture: Example: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Impact Statement Research projects undertaken identify and evaluate methods of reducing the personal injuries and property damage resulting from the use of motor vehicles (IIHS) Research projects undertaken: Advancing AV Technologies that ($L) > ($C) Facilitating Fundamental R&D on enabling sensor and control technologies, and Vehicle driver/rider WWW Vehicle… interface elements Quantify the Expected Accident Probability implications of those AV Technologies. Test and Certify those AV Technologies Support Technically the Public Oversight/Regulation of those AV Technologies, and Support Technically the Commercialization of those AV Technologies (NJ

Business Plan/Membership Stucture: Example: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety : 501 C6 Membership: ~ 100 Members (Munich Re, USAA, Progressive, GEICO, … Not: WTSIP) & 3 “Funding Associations (American Insurance Association, National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, Property Casualty Insurers Association of America )American Insurance AssociationNational Association of Mutual Insurance Companies Property Casualty Insurers Association of America

Business Plan/Membership Stucture: Create a 501 c6 (Mon-profit Trade Association) Tax exempt Contributions not tax deductible Companies write-off contributions as business expense Revenue can not be funneled to a single partner/member Can participate in joint project with members as long as sponsoring entity funds Center and Member separately Proposed Membership levels For Founding/Charter Members Supporting Members Affiliated Members Public Agency & Non-Profit Members University Members Associate Members

Business Plan/IPO (Initial Private Offering): All have an OPTION to Join at Chosen Level OPTION expires on April 1. LevelBoard compositionAnnual commitment pledged for four years Founding/Charter Members 1 per member, senior board positions $250,000/yr Supporting Members 0.3 per member Junior board positions $100,000./yr Public Agency & Non-Profit 0.25 per member Junior board positions Contract authority University Members 0.2 per member$5,000/yr Associate MemberNo board representation $25,000/yr

Center Membership (Revenue $ in thousands) Founding/ Charter Supporting Collaborator Associate CollaboratorSum Revenue ($)Note Founder's Fee (one-time) $ 250 $ 100 $ 25 Annual Contribution $ 250 $ 100 $ 25 Founding Members $ 1,875 EoY 1 Members $ 2,375 EoY 2 Members $ 3,000 Steady-state Members $ 4,000 FTE/member EoY FTE/member EoY FTE/member Steady-state Office Space (sf) EoY 1 1,800 1, , sf/FTE Office Space (sf) EoY 2 3,150 3, , sf/FTE Office Space (sf) S-S 15,000 9, , sf/FTE Garage Space (# bays) EoY Garage Space (# bays) EoY Garage Space (# bays) S-S Center Management (Expense$ in thousands) Numbers Expenditure ($)Note Founding Staff 2 EoY 1 Staff 4 EoY 2 Staff 5 Steady-state Staff 7 Office Space (sf) Start 300 $ $20/sf Office Space (sf) EoY 1 600$ $20/sf Office Space (sf) EoY 2 750$ $20/sf Office Space (sf) S-S 1,050$ $20/sf Salary*2.5 ($) Start$ 625 $125 Overhead ($) EoY 1 $ 1,300 $130 Overhead ($) EoY 2 $ 1,688 $135 Overhead ($) S-S $ 2,450 $140 Research ($) EoY 1 $ 1,150 Revenue$- Office$-Salary$ Research ($) EoY 2 $ 950 Revenue$- Office$-Salary$ Research ($) S- S $ 1,263 Revenue$- Office$-Salary$ Budget

Value to Your Organization: Contributions from around the room Value to Your Organization: Contributions from around the room