Update on the Northwest Regional Modeling System 2015 Cliff Mass and David Ovens University of Washington.

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Presentation transcript:

Update on the Northwest Regional Modeling System 2015 Cliff Mass and David Ovens University of Washington

Goal and sponsors To produce state-of-the-art, high-resolution numerical weather forecasts over the Pacific Northwest. Supported by NW Modeling Consortium: a collection of local, state, and Federal Agencies AND the private sector (King-5)

NW High Resolution Regional Prediction Currently runs with 36, 12, 4, and 1.3 km grid spacing using the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) ARW model twice a day at 0000 and 1200 UTC (5 AM and 5 PM PDT) One of the highest resolution numerical weather prediction efforts in the U.S. Physics tested to work best in our region.

36 km

12 km

4 km

1.33 km

UW Model Graphics on KING TV King-5 is getting our model grids and creating on-air graphics.

Several Improvements in the UW Modeling System

New Computers! The server (SAGE) was completely refreshed – 8 20-core nodes (2 x 10 cores), each with 64 GB RAM. 160 cores total. – Head node has 128 GB RAM and solid state drive – The machine is roughly twice as fast as old one (1.84x).

Forecasts Available Earlier With New Computers 4/3 km now done by 1:30 PM/AM instead of 5 PM. 26/12/4/ done around 9 AM/PM.

Major Upgrade to WRF modeling system (Jan. 29, 0000 UTC run) Tested dozens of combinations of upgrades and parameterizations for all seasons. Upgraded to new version of WRF (3.5.1 to 3.6.1) Moved from the NOAH to NOAH MP land surface model. NOAH MP (multi-physics) has much more sophisticated treatment of surface and hydrological processes, like snow.

NOAH MP Schematic

RAP Initialization We have been initializing with the National Weather Service GFS global model grids (1 or.5 degree resolution grids). Little mesoscale detail, so our model would have to spin things up. Furthermore, we were using the initialization grids from a very different modeling system (GFS), resulting in additional spin-up issues.

RAP Initialization In the new system we use the initialization from the 13-km NOAA Rapid Refresh model that is based on WRF. Less difference in modeling system (also WRF) results in less spin up Much more mesoscale detail. Better initialization of clouds and boundary layer structures. Rapid Refresh uses all available mesoscale data sources

Visible Satellite Imagery

OLD

New New system starts with much better clouds

Big differences over Puget Sound. Which is right? New Old

Seattle Sand Point Soundings Old New

Inversion and fog was reported in area

Latest verifications look favorable Wind direction, winds > 3 knots

Next Six Months: Much Better Graphics

Current

Example: googlemaps interface

Also: A Big Push on our Ensemble Data Assimilation System

The End