WCRP matters and implications for WGNE WGNE 29 th session March 2014 Melbourne, Australia C. Jakob on behalf of M. Rixen, WCRP JPS, Geneva

Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme supports climate-related decision making and adaptation planning by coordinating research required to improve (1)climate predictions and (2)understanding of human influence on climate “for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework ).

Now includes MJO TF

GC Clouds: challenges

GC Clouds: opportunities

GC Clouds: organization S. Bony & B. Stevens

GC Clouds: model development

9 GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES Goal: Improved management of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change through use of climate information in policy and practice from global to national scale Initial priority for first 4 years: Agriculture and food security Disaster risk reduction Water resources Health Prediction

10 Capacities in climate services More than 70 countries have only basic or less than basic capacities to provide climate services Infrastructural capacity category Basic Essential Full Advanced Less than basic # of Countries/Territories ≈ 60 countries can provide full or advanced climate services Pilot projects in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Sudan and South Sudan. Under preparation: Botswana, Nepal and Spain

11 Research, Modelling and Prediction Main gaps to be addressed Weak communication between communities of scientists and practitioners and the need to go the “last mile” between science deliverables and service-oriented ready-to-use climate information global, regional, & local scale Lack of seamless suite of climate products for contiguous time scales from weather to seasonal, interannual, decadal predictions and centenial climate projections (e.g. WGNE+S2S to fill gap) Still unknown predictability & limited prediction skill for a range of key time-space scales and some important phenomena (PS e.g. systematic error affecting climate predictions) Lack of comprehensive approaches and experience in dealing with uncertainty (e.g. for extremes)

Proposed Research Strategy: At the simplest level, Future Earth must answer fundamental questions about how and why the global environment is changing, what are likely future changes, what the implications are for humans and other species, and what choices can be made to reduce harmful risks and vulnerabilities, enhance resilience, and create prosperous futures. ICSU’s Future Earth conceptual framework Call for proposal: Fast Track Initiatives and Cluster Activities Deadline 4 April 2014 – need some GEC core project umbrella

CMIP new structure

Earth System Grid Federation JSC34-WMAC2: Earth System Grid Federation to become WCRP main mechanism for exchanging data (climate simulations+observations+reanalyses) in the next decade, including core projects - on-going progress to publish CORDEX and WGSIP-CHFP simulations WGCM: a new Infrastructure Panel to maintain standards and metadata across MIPS

Intercomparison Models-Observations Coordinated with CMIP5 are parallel efforts to collect and make available observationally-based products Obs4MIPs A pilot effort to improve the connection between data experts and scientists involved in climate model evaluation. Aligned with CMIP5, with encouragement from the WGCM, WGNE, WDAC. NASA and the U.S. DOE have initiated the project with significant contributions of appropriate NASA products. This is expanding to other products from other agencies. Communities to contribute data to Obs4MIPs such as cryosphere, biogeochemistry, etc.

WDAC WDAC3, Galway, Ireland, May 2014: special session on (sea and land) fluxes: importance for ESM, coupling, … ECV inventory being developed jointly by CEOS, CGMS and WMO (WCRP+ GCOS) In prep: doc on best practices for data set assessments (+maturity index) and publications (DOI) obs4MIPs panel to identify suitable data sets for inclusion in ESGF/obs4MIPS and develop guidelines –obs4MIPs-CMIP workshop: 29 Apr – 1 May, NASA HQ: atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, carbon, chemistry, radiation, simulators, etc ana4MIPs parallel effort to bring reanalyses into ESGF

Very relevant, even if you think you are a “climate scientist”!

Synergies with other groups (WGSIP, S2S, etc): maximize research impact, avoid duplications Potential stronger synergies between WGNE/WGCM Climate Model Metrics Panel ( and WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) – towards seamless metrics and verificationhttp://www-metrics-panel.llnl.gov/wiki Recommendation from the Systematic Error Workshop: establish a Transpose-CMIP effort: systematic biases in coupled climate models / ESM in weather-forecast/hindcast mode –Similar to Transpose-AMIP –Potential for Transpose AMIP/CMIP comparison –WGNE engagement? Miscellaneous

Thank you for your attention!

WCRP–Related Projects in Compendium of Initial GFCS Activities (9 out of 40) Research Strategy: o Climate, food security and agriculture (6, 250K) o Attribution and prediction of climate extremes (DRR, 9, 200K) o Climate and health - research and communication strategy (12, 250K) o Climate, water management and hydrological cycle (17, 200K) o Strengthening coordination of GFCS research activities (31, 600K) Improved delivery and application of climate services in areas highly dependent on snow or glacier melt for their water resources (9, 200K) Improving decision making in climate related risks (23, 1M, PI: WCRP ) Research on climate predictability and improving prognostic skill: o Subseasonal to seasonal time scales (28, 300K, PI: WCRP) o Decadal to centennial time scales (29, 200K, PI: WCRP) Research­based climate observations and dataset development (30, 600K) Strengthening regional systems for providing climate services (40, ?M) Total: up to 3-4 M$

Very significant planning work has been done. RMP implementation can & should start, potentially touching several M$. It has still to be projected on the WCRP structure. There is some money in the GFCS Trust Fund. But not all the money needed is there yet. Need to promote WCRP and WGNE as contributing to the foundation of GFCS GFCS Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services (IBCS-2): November 2014 WCRP & GFCS: JSC-35 on 30 June – 04 July 2014, Heidelberg, Germany Joint day with the WMO Technical Conference prior to the 16th Session of the WMO Technical Commission for Climatology. Focus on GFCS.