DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES A post-2015 development framework Lars Engberg-Pedersen Senior researcher

The strength of the MDGs  Focus on poverty reduction and well-being  A limited set of simple goals  Focus on outcome, not input  Focus on objectives, not means  Goals supplied with indicators enabling annual monitoring  Good time frame, not too long, not too short DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

The weaknesses of the MDGs  Too much focus on developing countries, too little on rich countries  Too strong focus on social aspects of life, too little on employment and production  Too little concern with the political dimensions of poverty  Too little concern with inequality  Irrelevant in many country contexts DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

Current global changes  Poverty is increasingly a result of international processes (climate change, rising food and fuel prices, financial crisis…)  A chaotic ‘aid architecture’  Heterogeneous development paths  75% of the world’s poor live in middle income countries  Changes in the balance of global power due to rising ‘emerging economies’, economic crisis, aging populations in rich countries, etc.  Aid resources are dwarfed by other financial flows (FDI, remittances, philanthropy, illicit capital flows, etc.)

Current contentious issues  Inequality or ‘getting to zero’  Climate change and development  Global or universal goals  Ends and/or means  Financing  A changing world DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

Inequality in the post-2015 framework  Gender equality – probably yes  Social protection floors – yes  Measurement of progress among the poorest – yes  Stand-alone goal on reduced inequality – not likely –A possibility is to use the Palma ratio dividing the income of the top 10% with the income of the bottom 40% DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

Possible goal: Halving the Palma ratio CountryPalma ratio 2010 Baseline Palma ratio 2030 Target Bolivia (2008) Brazil (2009) Bulgaria (2007) Burkina Faso (2009) China (2005) Denmark (1997) France (1995) Germany (2000) Ghana (2005) India (2004) Japan (1993) Malaysia (2009) Netherlands (1999) South Africa (2008) Tanzania (2007) United Kingdom (1999) United States (2000) DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES