Climate Change Mitigation in South Africa Addendum to main presentation 15 th September 2009

The South African Mitigation Response South Africa highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change – now and into future. Huge cost to economy – threatens development, growth and poverty alleviation. Energy intense economy Primary commodity production and resource based economy South Africa a responsible global citizen committed to reduction of Greenhouse Gases over time.

South African Response Proactive response through Long Term Mitigation Scenarios – study of mitigation potential of SA economy. Backed by GHG inventory Result is framework for peak, plateau and decline trajectory Energy efficiency, renewable energy, nuclear, modal shift in transport, carbon pricing and innovation

South African Response Business as usual trajectory modelled. - includes Medupi and Khusile, Mafutha, new refineries, expansion of vehicular transport etc Existing policies and actions deducted Various packages of mitigation actions modelled. Result is peak, plateau and decline framework Conclusion is that South Africa can reduce GHGs over time. Will require financing and support to achieve desired trajectory

GHG emission reductions and limits climate change mitigation interventions should be informed by, and monitored and measured against the following “plateau and decline” emission trajectory –Greenhouse gas emissions stop growing (start of plateau) in at 550 Mt CO2-eq (i.e. ~100 Mt above current) –Greenhouse gas emissions begin declining in absolute terms (end of plateau) in –Long-term greenhouse gas emission level reduces to 300 Mt CO2-eq by

GHG emission reductions and limits

Nationally appropriate mitigation actions Bali Action Plan calls for “nationally appropriate mitigation actions” by developing countries and for these to be supported by finance and technology Kyoto 2 nd Commitment Period – legally binding emission reduction targets by developed countries US action to be comparable to Kyoto In context of above, SA mitigation action is relative deviation from baseline. Within this framework South Africa will reduce its emissions

THANK YOU