“THE NEW WORLD ORDER” Structural Transformation & Changes in the Tanker Trade Peter M. Swift

“THE NEW WORLD ORDER” ASIAN INVOLVEMENT UNITED SHIPPING FRONT INTERNATIONALISM NOT UNILATERALISM

Structural Transformation & Changes in the Tanker Trade  MARKET FUNDAMENTALS  INDUSTRY STRUCTURES  CHALLENGES TO THE INTERNATIONAL REGULATORY REGIMES  SOLUTIONS THROUGH PARTNERSHIPS

A nervous, volatile market  Tight supply  Volatile oil price  Low oil stocks  Short-term disruptions  Increased non-OPEC oil production  Charterers’ preferences for “modern” ships

Short-term disruptions  Strikes in Venezuela  Congestion in Bosporus  Political unrest in Nigeria  Reconstruction in Iraq  Japanese nuclear plant maintenance  Weather delays in US Gulf and Baltic  Phase-out situation unclear

FSU oil exports mbd

Tanker supply  Large order book  Scrapping ahead of phase-out  Majority of fleet now double-hull  Average age is reducing  Phase-out situation unclear

Orderbook by year of delivery number

Tankers sold for demolition m dwt number

The Future Market ?  DEMAND – steady but low growth, offset by shorter hauls  SUPPLY – growing quickly  UNCERTAINTIES:  Short-term disruptions  Charterer preferences & Marginalisation of some tonnage

Structural Transformation & Changes in the Tanker Trade  INDUSTRY STRUCTURES  Consolidation  Investments and Costs  Legislative developments – Post Prestige

Legislative developments: - IMO/EU Proposals to Amend MARPOL Annex I Accelerated Phase-out of single hulls Expanded Condition Assessment Scheme – initially from 15 years of age Ban on carriage of “Heavy Oils” in single- hulled tankers

Structural Transformation & Changes in the Tanker Trade  CHALLENGES TO THE INTERNATIONAL REGULATORY REGIMES  IMO – Unilateralism  UNCLOS  Flags – Audit and/or other assessment  Class – Goal based standards; common rules

Double hulls dominate - Single hulls under attack

The phasing-out of the single hull tanker No. of Tankers

Structural Transformation & Changes in the Tanker Trade The New World Order  SOLUTIONS - Through PARTNERSHIPS  Greater cooperation  Greater transparency  Greater dialogue  Greater trust  Greater LEADERSHIP

THE NEW WORLD ORDER Solutions through Partnership “ Tanker shipping is committed to continuous improvement of safety, quality and protection of the environment ”

Tanker incidents – improving record

Development of tanker oil spills Source: ITOPF 2003

Chain of Responsibility Working with regulators and legislators SHIPOWNER SHIPYARDS INSURERS BANKS & FINANCIERS CARGO OWNER CHARTERER PORTS & TERMINALS CLASS SOCIETIES FLAG STATES

RESPONSIBILITY IS A TWO WAY PROCESS - the regulator and the regulated must both be responsible Reception Facilities IMO Ratification - TBT - HNS Respect for International Treaties Jailing of Masters Illegal Boardings Inflammatory statements - Annex VI Places of Refuge Ship Recycling

Thank you