Changing Work Demands and Compositional Changes in Occupations: Effects on Retirement Comments by Josh Mitchell U.S. Census Bureau August 7, 2015 The views expressed in this research, including those related to statistical, methodological, technical, or operational issues, are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official positions or policies of the Census Bureau. The author accepts responsibility for all errors. This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress. This presentation reports the results of research and analysis undertaken by Census Bureau staff. It has undergone more limited review than official publications.

Overview Explore association between late-career occupation and timing of retirement in HRS Compare contribution of occupation-level characteristics from O*NET and HRS-reported job characteristics Find important explanatory role for occupation in retirement decisions but interpretation unclear as of now… 2

General comments Provides preliminary evidence on an important labor market relationship where there is little existing research Suggests that changing nature of work environment may be important determinant of future SS solvency Will focus most of my comments on places to go in future drafts 3

What is the interpretation? Lifecycle labor supply framework Substitution and wealth effects How does observed late-career occupational choice relate? People are not randomly assigned to occupations Differences in accumulated human capital, permanent income, ability to save, tastes for work, etc. These considerations should motivate future regression specifications 4

How fluid is occupation? Occupation from previous job(s)/ longest job also in HRS Occupation at what point in career is most important predictor for retirement outcomes? How much within-cohort occupational change do we actually see? Earlier in life as a benchmark Do older workers switch jobs rather than retire? How does occupational distribution shift across cohorts? Decompose change in age at retirement (DFL) 5

Clarifying variables of interest Occupation/tasks variables – Ways to reduce dimensionality – Skills index – More graphs Definition of early / late retirement – Not working / self-reported retirement / claiming – How to handle disability? 6

Supplement with Census data Decennial Long-Form and American Community Survey – Large samples – Can look at evolution in 1990, 2000, samples – Occupation reported even if job ended up to 5 years ago – Ex: can estimate fraction of people age 65 who are currently working in a given occupation where denominator is last worked in that occupation within last five years 7