Connect With Concrete Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA.

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Presentation transcript:

Connect With Concrete Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA

Connect With Concrete Introduction: Overview  Economic fundamentals are weak.  Private Sector no longer drives demand  Residential & Nonresidential recoveries are not expected to materialize anytime soon.

Connect With Concrete Bank Charge-Offs versus Unemployment Rate - % Loans Charged-Off, % Unemployed 10 Stress Tests Based on 8.4% Unemployment Rate

Connect With Concrete Job Recovery: Past Recessions - Change, Thousands of Jobs Recession Recession Recession Current Recession

Connect With Concrete Economic Growth Outlook Percent Change, GDP Growth Rate

Connect With Concrete Introduction: Overview  Economic fundamentals are weak.  Private Sector no longer drives demand  Residential & Nonresidential recoveries are not expected to materialize anytime soon.  Outlook shaped by policy actions.

Connect With Concrete “Stimulus Timeline Tax Cuts, Entitlement Spending, State Aid Phase I Stabilize Economy, halt adverse momentum Phase II Phase III Shovel Ready Projects Long Term Investments Policy Tool Objective Job Saving Job Creating Job Creation Job Creation, Address Structural Economic Issues

Connect With Concrete Stimulus: Job Creation Estimates Million Jobs Obama Economists PCA Unemployment: 7.0% Unemployment: 8.8% Job Estimates have large impacts on Cement/Concrete recovery assessments.

Connect With Concrete Stimulus Overview  Obama’s $789 billion plan may not be enough.  Obama economists expect an additional 2.8 million jobs lost. And plan aimed at creating /saving 3.7 million jobs.  PCA estimates that 8.5 million jobs may need to be created/saved. Stimulus plan required = $1.5 trillion (conservative)  And….Obama Economists implied it…..  Taxpayer pushback, politics prevented full initiation for now…  Don’t be surprised if a second stimulus plan materializes.  New Highway Bill may fit requirement ($400 Billion = PCA)  Delayed passage dovetails with 10% unemployment and may fly under radar and taxpayer pushback

Connect With Concrete Residential Single Family Recovery 2011

Connect With Concrete Single Family Home Sales (New) - Thousands of Homes Weak Labor Markets, Tight Lending Standards, Competition From Distressed Properties Prevent A Meaningful New Home Sales Recovery From Materializing Until Mid 2010

Connect With Concrete Nonresidential The Crash of 2009

Connect With Concrete Source: PCA

Connect With Concrete Streets & Highway Stimulus Good, Reauthorization May be Even Better

Connect With Concrete Discretionary State & Local Highway/Street Spending - Millions of Real $ (estimated) Job Losses Generate Deficits –Pushing Discretionary Spending Down State Discretionary Highway Spending Will Act as a Powerful Drag on Total Highway Construction Activity in

Connect With Concrete “Shovel Ready” Timeline House Bill Senate Passes & Bill Signed Obama Inaugurated Federal Paperwork State Paperwork Jan March Feb April May Bid Letting June JulyAugust Bid Review Contractor Paperwork Construction Begins Job Creation May Come Later Than Many Expect

Connect With Concrete Shovel Ready: Late in Coming, Low Cement Intensities  Projects that can be undertaken within 120 days.  Paint a bridge Versus new ramp for a bridge.  Resurface a road Versus Expand a road  Low cement intensities per $ spent. These programs will create jobs and cement volume increases...but not as many as “Hard” infrastructure investment.  Panic to spend Versus Patience and Payoff

Connect With Concrete Streets & Highways  Economic distress will lead to a drag in discretionary state highway spending initiatives  Stimulus spending will help some in 2009…more in  Low cement intensities through first half of 2010….resurfacings and system preservation dominate…  Backlog of projects related to systems preservation reduced…..

Connect With Concrete SAFETEA-LU: Composition of Work

Connect With Concrete New Highway Bill: Composition of Work

Connect With Concrete Beyond the Crisis Stimulus Payback in context of Global Recovery

Connect With Concrete Introduction: Overview  Cyclical correction is temporary.

Connect With Concrete Point Six  Stimulus spending must be paid for…resulting in higher interest rates, higher taxes and potentially higher inflation….  …and…American consumer..the engine of US economic growth may show significantly different spending patterns…  …combining for the potential of slower longer term economic growth (50 basis points).  …But even with these gains…past cyclical peaks are not expected to materialize until 2015.

Connect With Concrete 000 Starts Single Family Housing– United States Pent-Up Demand Interest Rates low, Decline in Home Price, Job Recovery Translate into Improved Affordability Excess Inventories Worked Off

Connect With Concrete Point Seven  Once recovery is in place….  And despite payback costs for stimulus…  Concrete construction could record large and sustained gains in growth.

Connect With Concrete Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA