The Unintended Consequences of a career in Engineering Or How to end up a mass murderer without even trying.

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Presentation transcript:

The Unintended Consequences of a career in Engineering Or How to end up a mass murderer without even trying

The PATRIOT System, and my part in it  Stands for Phased Array Tracking, Radio Intercept Of Target  Designed and built at Raytheon, right here in Massachusetts  First built as an anti-aircraft system to shoot down bombers  Modified to function as an Anti-Ballistic Missile system (ABM)  Deployed during the First Gulf War in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Israel What am I here to talk about?

Here's what it looks like

How PATRIOT was used Initial interceptions of Scud missiles were very successful, but they used 4 PATRIOT missiles per Scud – just to make sure This was a problem:  Iraq had hundreds of Scud missiles, more than all the PATRIOT missiles ready to use.  So, to make interceptions more economical, modifications were made to have the PATRIOT disable the Scuds, rather than destroy them  Every effort was made to find and destroy the mobile launchers, without which the Scuds were useless PATRIOT batteries were permanently placed around sensitive areas, manned and running 24/7, in case of missile attack

So what's a Scud anyway? Soviet built surface to surface missile Designed from the V-2 missiles Germany developed during World War II Scud is the designation NATO gave the missile Came in various versions as it was refined over the years – Iraq had Scud-B, the most common one (about 7,000 produced) Can carry explosive, chemical, or 5-80 kilo-ton nuclear warhead 37 feet long, lb at launch, flies at mach 5 Iraq developed their own version of the Scud, with a longer range, the Al-Hussien

How effective was the Patriot vs the Scud? In the initial trials, extremely In 'economy' mode, somewhat less effective  The strikes by the PATRIOT missiles were skewed towards the front of the Scud  The idea was to disable / detonate the warhead  Worked as planned, mostly, but that left several tons of rocket still falling on the target  It helped that the Scuds could not be aimed well  By comparison, the Patriot missile is 1500 lb before launch, with a warhead of 200 lb of explosives When deployed to Israel, the 'economy' mode was less helpful as Israel is a densely populated area. The worst failure occurred Feb 25, 1991 – 28 dead, 97 wounded.

So what went wrong that day? A software error in the Engagement Control System caused the PATRIOT guarding the area to lose track Without a good target track, the PATRIOT missiles cannot engage So it never fired at the Scud

Normal operation

The range gate error

What happened that day

A Perfect Storm of circumstances The PATRIOT system's software had a flaw Our Army never found the flaw due to how they used the system  Used as a point defense system against the Soviet Union mostly  Moved around constantly for security reasons  Pretty reliable, but if down, it took a long time to repair I had just finished the TMU project at Raytheon, and the upgraded units were in the field – both in Saudi Arabia and Israel.

The Storm continues The PATRIOT systems were being used in fixed positions, run 24 hours a day With the TMU improvements I made, the system was both more reliable (it could spot trouble sooner) and much quicker to repair The Israel Army found the flaw in PATRIOT when running for as little as 8 hours They alerted our Army, which issued a vague warning that didn't prompt anyone to action

The Storm breaks The Iraqi launched a Scud missile at Dhahran, in Saudi Arabia The Scud functions perfectly The PATRIOT battery guarding the city was running too long, and the flaw prevented the missile from being tracked. The automatic systems never fired There was no time for the operators to do anything The Scud hit the barracks, killing and wounding 125 people

And yet it could have been prevented The Army worked on a fix to the flaw for 2 weeks after it was found – the two weeks prior to the attack Distributed patches for the software to all PATRIOT units in the theater The patches arrived on Feb 26 th One day after the barracks was destroyed.

Nothing like that can happen to me, right? No matter what we're working on, there is almost always some potential for disaster, especially with software and hardware for the military (also CIA, NSA, etc.), transportation, and medicine (and many others). Sometimes it's not even doing your job wrong, but doing it right, that can lead to disaster. How will YOU handle it?