Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) (and MJO Task Force) A Contribution to Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction Mitch Moncrieff, NCAR Duane Waliser, JPL/Caltech Co-chairs, YOTC Science Planning Group ICSC-9 For THORPEX Geneva; September 2011 Major/Recent Accomplishments and Plans

Science Plan – Drafted and Discussed/Approved at Meeting in Washington DC, November 13-14, WMO Technical Document. Program Support/Information Specialist – (Part-time): US THORPEX Exec Committee funding via U.S. NSF, NOAA, NASA. Web site: Implementation Plan Drafted/Discussed/Approved at IP Meeting in Honolulu, July 13-15, YOTC Science Sessions– Fall AGU’08, AMS’09, Spring AGU’09, Fall AGU’09, WP-AGU’10, AGU of Americas’10, Fall AGU’10, Fall AGU’11. WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX MJO Task Force – Est. Dec 2009 (see later slide) MJO TF Meeting and MJO Workshop, Busan, June YOTC+AMY Science Symposium, CMA/Beijing, China, May BAMS Synoptic Overview (in press), BAMS Science Motivation (in review), BAMS YOTC Symposium Summary (submitted). Data Sets: High-Res ECMWF Global Analysis & Satellite Archive/Tools Model and Analysis Activities: T-AMIP, ISVHE, MJO TF/GCSS-Diabatic, etc YOTC: Progress & Plans

High-resolution, global analysis and forecast data sets are being made available to the community from ECMWF, NCEP and GMAO/NASA. e.g. T799 = 25km ECMWF + diagnostic fields (as of Jan’10, T1279 = 16kms) YOTC: Analyses, Forecasts & Special Diagnostics ECMWF-YOTC Replicated at NCAR.

Key satellite data (e.g., NASA A-Train, TRMM) have been identified and funding secured from NASA for the: NASA Giovanni-based dissemination framework. Multi-sensor CloudSat-Centric A-Train Data Set – archive & dissemination underway at CloudSat Data Processing Center. YOTC: Satellite Data Ready Mid 2011

Transpose AMIP CMIP5 Model Evaluations 4 periods; 16 5-day hindcasts in each 9 proposed subprojects – e.g. Cloud Regimes, Williams; MJO, Moncrieff. Modeling Group Pledges EC-Earth (Frank Selten) IPSL (Sandrine Bony) Met Office (Keith Williams) Meteo France (Michel Deque) MIROC (Masahide Kimoto) MPI (Bjorn Stevens) MRI (Masahide Kimoto) NCAR (David Williamson) YOTC Period hadobs.metoffice.com/tamip Other T-AMIP: CAPT/Klein & EUCLIPS/Siebesma

ISVHE Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment Suited for MJO & other ISV Contacts: Bin Wang & June-Yi Lee Close Collaboration: YOTC, AMY, APCC Partial Support: NOAA CTB Long simulation plus ensembles of ~45 day integrations every 5-10 days for 20 years. Predictability, prediction skill, impacts, diagnostic studies.

MJO TF, YOTC & GEWEX GASS Diabatic Heating MJO Exp Long-Term Simulations & Initialized Hindcasts During YOTC MJOs Focus on Diabatic Heating Structure Utilize TRMM & Reanalyses Q1, QR 20 Modeling Groups so far. Jiang et al. 2011

MJO Task Force  Workshop on Modeling Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability; MJO TF + CLIVAR AAMP, APEC Climate Center, Busan, Korea, June 2010  BAMS meeting summary.  Organized efforts into 4 Subprojects  MJO TF + GASS Mulit-Model Diabatic Processes Experiment (see later slide)  Boreal summer monsoon ISV forecasting metrics – builds of earlier efforts on MJO.  Process-oriented MJO diagnostics/metrics for evaluating/guiding GCM improvement.  Recommend MJO metric(s) to WGCM/WGNE Climate Metrics Panel. (considering a new effort on MJO + TC interactions)  Next Meeting : WCRP OSC, Denver 2011  Workshop on Modeling Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability; MJO TF + CLIVAR AAMP, APEC Climate Center, Busan, Korea, June 2010  BAMS meeting summary.  Organized efforts into 4 Subprojects  MJO TF + GASS Mulit-Model Diabatic Processes Experiment (see later slide)  Boreal summer monsoon ISV forecasting metrics – builds of earlier efforts on MJO.  Process-oriented MJO diagnostics/metrics for evaluating/guiding GCM improvement.  Recommend MJO metric(s) to WGCM/WGNE Climate Metrics Panel. (considering a new effort on MJO + TC interactions)  Next Meeting : WCRP OSC, Denver 2011