Economic Progress and the Decline of the Countryside James Dunn Pennsylvania State University

Economic Progress has certain changes Agriculture becomes more efficient –Economies of scale –Substitute capital for labor –Fewer, but bigger farms –Scientific advances Better roads make shopping (or working) elsewhere possible Larger factories & mechanization reduce off-farm employment

Poland’s Dairy Herd Source: Piotr Szajner: Polish Dairy Outlook

Manufacturing Factories get bigger and more modern –Substitute capital for labor –More mechanization

Polish Dairy Processors Source: Piotr Szajner: Polish Dairy Outlook

Transportation Better roads More cars More four lane roads Bigger and better trucks Containerized freight

Retailing Chain stores Hyper marts More items in store More items from far away Lower prices for ordinary goods

Villages Small shops struggle Smaller and fewer farm families Bachelor farmers Bedroom communities – work in the city, live in the village – shop in the city Lots of old people – few young families Fewer children in school

Some examples Elkton –my grandfather – drug store –1940 – doctor left –1960 lots of stores –Now – very few – bedroom community Bryant –Better roads – fewer stores –Bigger farms – fewer people –Town has shrunk

Some more Greeley –My father last dentist – 1948 –Fire on main street – didn’t rebuild –69% fewer people in county since 1920 Serbia Ireland Australia Ukraine

Table 1 Selected US County Population Data growth Hamlin8,0547,5626,3035,2615,540-31% Minnehaha42,49057,69786,575109,435148,281249% Brookings16,11916,56020,04624,33228,22075% Douglas204,524247,562343,490397,038463,585127% Greeley8,6856,8454,5953,4622,714-69% Centre44,30452,60878,580112,760135,758206% Mifflin31,43942,99344,34846,90846,48648%

CIS states Slovakia Serbia Ukraine – private (?) farms Russia - Ussurysk, Voronezh Uzbekistan

What this means Villages with just ag will shrink Need something else to survive Tourism? Family history? Architecture Something else Managing shrinkage

Concluding Comments Must have a plan Managing growth Managing shrinkage Local government finance