Britain, the EU and the Referendum: What Drives Euroscepticism? Matthew Goodwin

Key points #EURef follows a long & entrenched tradition of Euroscepticism Britons consistently less enthusiastic about EU & membership Inners and Outers have very distinctive social profiles They think very differently about the world around them Dissatisfaction over democracy at EU level and immigration the strongest predictors of Remain vote Cultural concerns central to vote, consistent with wider academic research

The anti-EU vote: Competing explanations Utilitarian/economic drivers Voters mainly driven by instrumental cost-benefit economic calculation The pro-EU, young, skilled & cosmopolitans vs. the old, white left behind Sharp social profile differences cited as evidence Identity/ethnic threat drivers Profiles distinct but driven mainly by concerns over ethnic/cultural threat Immigration concerns concentrated among left behind & more key than EU Large number of studies demonstrate central role of identity to anti-EU Political approach Voters driven more by political considerations, whether domestic gvt of the day or perceived democratic deficit at EU level Anti-EU vote opportunity to voice protest sentiment

A quick point on the issue agenda…

Data and Methods British Election Study (BES) Collaboration by Universities of Manchester, Nottingham, and Oxford Waves 4,5,6: March-May ,127 respondents Dependent variable Vote to leave in EU referendum (Wave 6 – May 2015) Independent variables Socio-demographics (social class, education, age, gender) Attitudes (EU democracy, immigration, ideology, economy, Englishness) Methodology Multivariate logit model Calculate the predicted probability that an individual with each trait will support leaving EU, holding all others constant

Dissatisfaction w/EU dem. has biggest effect, but immigration also significant

Other attitudes, socio-demographics also matter Particularly ideology Far left = 0.10 vs. Far right = 0.46 But effect of attitudes on the economy has a more modest effect Getting a lot better = 0.19 vs. Getting a lot worse = 0.29 Of socio-demographics, education, social class have biggest effects Left school after 18 = 0.26 vs. Left school before 17 = 0.36 Higher professionals = 0.22 vs. Routine = 0.32

Implications Consistent with wider research, immigration and identity concerns will be central to the debate and our findings suggest motivate a large portion of the electorate to vote Leave While established actors may downplay these issues, other prominent actors will seek to amplify them Aiming to merge immigration -> refugee crisis -> security threats -> European Union External events, unresolved anxieties over net migration, the refugee crisis, and possibility of further terrorist attacks – are likely to sustain the salience of these issues going forward Those campaigning to stay in the EU will have to work hard to prevent these sentiments from hardening and widening

Britain, the EU and the Referendum: What Drives Euroscepticism? Matthew Goodwin

Social Background of EU Inners, Outers and Undecided Voters CharacteristicStayLeaveDon’t know Social class Higher managerial/professional2114 Lower managerial/professional Intermediate occupations Small employers/self-employed676 Lower supervisory/technical696 Semi-routine812 Routine487 Education (Age left school) 16 or younger or older, still in school Gender Male Female Age

EU Inners, Outers and Undecided Voters by 2015 Vote Choice PartyStayLeaveDon’t know Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat1448 Ukip1255 Other1679

Issue Attitudes of EU Inners, Outers and Undecided Voters AttitudeStayLeaveDon’t know Left-right ideology Left Centre Right Euroscepticism Unification “gone too far” Britain should protect its independence Dissatisfaction with EU democracy Attitudes on immigration Immigration bad for Britain’s economy Immigrants a burden on the welfare state Immigration undermines Britain’s culture Economic pessimism (retrospective) Personal economic situation worse General economic situation worse292825