R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS J ENNY S CALA S ENIOR R ESEARCHER A MERICAN I NSTITUTES FOR R ESEARCH F EBRUARY 17, 2015

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! O BJECTIVES Participants will learn: o What is an early warning system o What research says about early indicators of high school dropout o What is an early warning intervention and monitoring system implementation process

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS (EWS) Early warning systems rely on readily available data housed at the school to: Predict which students are at risk for dropping out of high school Target resources to support off-track students while they are still in school, before they drop out Examine patterns and identify school climate issues

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! O THER E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEMS What are examples of early warning systems that are used in non-educational settings?

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! O VERVIEW OF THE EWS R ESEARCH B ASE

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! I NSTITUTE OF E DUCATION S CIENCES - R ECOMMENDED D ROPOUT P REVENTION P RACTICES Diagnostic Practices (Early Warning System) o Data system and use o Screening Targeted Interventions o Adult advocates o Academic supports o Social/behavioral supports Schoolwide Practices o Learning environment o Rigorous and relevant instruction Dynarski et al., 2008

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! K EY EWS I NDICATORS Engagement o Attendance/absenteeism Course performance o Grades o Number of credits earned o Grade point average Behavior o Suspensions o Discipline referrals Research from several U.S. school districts provides a strong foundation for defining early warning signs that students might drop out, but local adaptation is key. Sources: Allensworth & Easton, 2005; 2012; Balfanz, Herzong, MacIver, 2007; Balfanz, et.al., 2011; Jerald, 2006; Heppen & Therriault; 2008

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! Early warning indicators are used only for prediction— they do not cause students to drop out. Rather, they should be treated as symptoms of the dropout process that is in progress.

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! “H IGH -Y IELD ” I NDICATORS : H IGH S CHOOL A TTENDANCE Source: Allensworth & Easton (2007)

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! “H IGH -Y IELD ” I NDICATORS : H IGH S CHOOL C OURSE F AILURES Source: Allensworth & Easton (2007)

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! “H IGH -Y IELD ” I NDICATORS : H IGH S CHOOL GPA Source: Allensworth & Easton (2007)

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! C HICAGO C ONSORTIUM OF S CHOOL R ESEARCH ’ S “O N -T RACK ” H IGH S CHOOL I NDICATOR Number of Semester Core Course Failures # of Credits Accumulated Freshman Year Less than 5 5 or more 2 or more courses Off-track 0 or 1 coursesOff-trackOn-track Students are “on-track” if they: 1.Have not failed more than one semester-long core course, AND 2.Have accumulated enough credits for promotion to the 10 th grade.

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! “H IGH -Y IELD ” I NDICATORS : O N -T RACK S TATUS

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! M IDDLE G RADES R ISK I NDICATORS Sixth grade students demonstrating at least one “flag” had only a 10–20% likelihood of graduating from high school in 5 years. Engagement 80% or lower attendance rate Course Performance Failing math or English Behavior Unsatisfactory behavior grade Source: Balfanz (2009)

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! C OMMON EWS I NDICATORS, T IME F RAME, AND T HRESHOLDS IndicatorTime Frame Thresholds Middle GradesHigh School Attendance First 20 or 30 days End of each grading period End of year Missed 20 percent or more of instructional time Missed 10 percent or more of instructional time Course Performance End of each grading period End of year Failure in an English language arts or mathematics course Failure in one or more courses Earned 2.0 or lower GPA (on a four-point scale) Behavior End of each grading period End of year Locally validated thresholds End-of-Year Indicator End of year EWS exit indicator or locally validated indicators of risk

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! What resonates with you regarding this research overview? Do you have access to data that could be used as an early warning system (attendance, course performance, behavior)? How are you using this data to support dropout prevention efforts? What ideas do you have for how you would define the behavior indicator? What threshold might make sense to start with for behavior? What additional questions do you have? D ISCUSSION ON Y OUR D ATA

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! E ARLY W ARNING I NTERVENTION AND M ONITORING S YSTEM (EWIMS) I MPLEMENTATION P ROCESS

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! EWIMS S EVEN -S TEP I MPLEMENTATION P ROCESS STEP 1 Establish roles and responsibilities STEP 2 Use an EWS Tool STEP 3 Review the EWS data STEP 4 Interpret the EWS data STEP 5 Assign and provide interventions STEP 6 Monitor students STEP 7 Evaluate and refine the EWIMS process

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! H OW DO Y OU U SE D ATA IN Y OUR S CHOOL ? How do you use data to inform decisions in your school? Do you use a framework? Does your process overlap with any early warning indicators data? What are similarities to those frameworks? What are some of the differences to those frameworks? How do you ensure student supports match student needs?

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! S TEP O NE : E STABLISH R OLES AND R ESPONSIBILITIES EWS teams need to include individuals who have: o Authority to make decisions o Knowledge of diverse students o Expertise to manage and analyze data EWS team are required to: o Meet regularly o Communicate EWS risk or dropout prevention issues to groups/individuals outside of the team o Solicit feedback from stakeholders (leaders, staff, students, parents) o Monitor students’ progress

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! S TEP T WO : U SE A N EWS T OOL Important EWS tool (middle grades and high school) considerations: o Data must be regularly entered throughout the school year o At least one individual should be responsible for ensuring the EWS tool is loaded with the latest data o EWS Team members must be trained to understand the use of the indicators within the tool o Reports must be used and accessible in order to make decisions about students’ needs o Student progress in interventions must be monitored

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! S TEP T HREE : R EVIEW EWS D ATA EWS indicators are reviewed and monitored to identify students at risk for dropping out and to understand patterns in student engagement and academic performance Questions to ask about EWS data: o Student-level patterns: What do your data tell you about individual students who are at-risk? o School-level patterns: What do your data tell you about how the school is doing? Are students who were flagged from the beginning remaining “off-track” through the year? Are students who were flagged at one reporting period back “on-track” at the next?

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! E XAMPLE 1: S TUDENT -L EVEL R EPORT

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! E XAMPLE 2: S CHOOL -L EVEL R EPORT 24

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! W HOLE G ROUP D ISCUSSION T IME : K EY Q UESTIONS FOR S TEPS 1-3 Step 1: Who needs to be represented on the EWS team and what types of knowledge do team members need to have? Step 2: How frequently will the EWS data be monitored? Step 3: What do you need to have in place so you are confident that your data are accurate? STEP 1 Establish roles and responsibilities STEP 2 Use the EWS Tool STEP 3 Review the EWS data STEP 4 Interpret the EWS data STEP 5 Assign and provide interventions STEP 6 Monitor students STEP 7 Evaluate and refine the EWIMS process

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! S TEP F OUR : I NTERPRET EWS D ATA The EWS team must look BEYOND the indicators o Indicators are just observable symptoms, not root causes o Root causes emerge through examining additional data from a variety of sources beyond the EWS indicators Looking at data beyond EWS Indicators can: o Help identify individual and common needs among groups of students o Raise new questions and increase understanding of why students’ fall off-track for graduation

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! S TEP F OUR, C ONTINUED Understanding characteristics of students at-risk of dropout is important because: o Decisions to persist or drop out are affected by multiple contextual factors - family, school, neighborhood, peers o Personal and school factors contribute to success or failure during the freshman year o EWS indicators, such as attendance and course performance problems are distinct indicators of risk, but are highly interrelated, and both can signal disengagement o Student background characteristics are less important in explaining failures than behaviors in the middle grades and in high school

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! S TEP F IVE : A SSIGN AND P ROVIDE I NTERVENTIONS The EWIMS team matches individual students to specific interventions after having gathered information about: o Potential root causes for individual students who are flagged as at risk o The available academic and behavioral support and dropout prevention programs in the school, district, and community A tiered approach can be used to match students to interventions based on their individual needs

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! T IERED A PPROACH TO D ROPOUT P REVENTION ~15% ~5% Tier III/Tertiary Specialized individualized systems for students with intensive needs Tier II/Secondary Supplemental group systems for students with at-risk response to primary level Tier I/Primary school-wide instruction for all Students, including differentiated instruction ~80% Academic Focus Behavior Focus Students with disabilities Receive services at all levels, depending on need

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! W HOLE G ROUP D ISCUSSION T IME : K EY Q UESTIONS FOR S TEPS 4-5 Step 4: What additional data sources should be used when interpreting EWS data? Step 5: How confident are you that the interventions are appropriate for your students? Step 5: Does your school have tiered interventions? STEP 1 Establish roles and responsibilities STEP 2 Use the EWS Tool STEP 3 Review the EWS data STEP 4 Interpret the EWS data STEP 5 Assign and provide interventions STEP 6 Monitor students STEP 7 Evaluate and refine the EWIMS process

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! S TEP S IX : M ONITOR S TUDENTS AND I NTERVENTIONS The EWS team monitors students who are participating in interventions to: o Make necessary changes by identifying students’ whose needs are not being met, and/or those students who may no longer be struggling o Identify new interventions that will to meet students’ needs o Use data to monitor the effectiveness of interventions offered Increase knowledge about the general effectiveness of interventions Improve the matching of students to interventions o Communicate with appropriate stakeholders and solicit their involvement in the process (e.g., feeder schools, next grade level)

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! S TEP S EVEN : E VALUATE AND R EFINE THE EWIMS P ROCESS Refine the EWIMS Implementation Process o During the school year o At the end of a school year Identify short- and long-term needs and solutions o Student needs o School climate o Organizational needs (school and/or district)

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! W HOLE G ROUP D ISCUSSION T IME : K EY Q UESTIONS FOR S TEPS 6-7 Step 6: How are you using progress monitoring data for EWS indicators? Step 7: Identify short- and long-term successes and challenges to using an EWS. STEP 1 Establish roles and responsibilities STEP 2 Use the EWS Tool STEP 3 Review the EWS data STEP 4 Interpret the EWS data STEP 5 Assign and provide interventions STEP 6 Monitor students STEP 7 Evaluate and refine the EWIMS process

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion!

R URAL D ROPOUT P REVENTION P ROJECT Practice in Motion! Allensworth, E., & Easton, J. (2005). The on-track indicator as a predictor of high school graduation. Chicago, IL: Consortium on Chicago School Research. Retrieved from Allensworth, E., & Easton, J. (2007). What matters for staying on-track and graduating in Chicago public high schools: A close look at course grades, failures, and attendance in the freshman year. Chicago, IL: Consortium on Chicago School Research. Retrieved from Dynarski, M., Clarke, L., Cobb, B., Finn, J., Rumberger, R., & Smink, J. (2008). Dropout prevention (NCEE ). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance. Retrieved from Heppen, J., & Therriault, S. (2008). Developing early warning systems to identify potential high school dropouts. Washington, DC: National High School Center. Retrieved from R EFERENCES