Endowment Trustees Report to Executive Board (Long-Term Investment Fund) Dan Bradbury – Senior Trustee Saturday – April 25, ET # – 09 EBD #13.5 (2008 – 09 Spring Meeting)
Market Flash Points The deleveraging for businesses and households is well underway The household savings rates for the last two months of 4.3% is the highest two month average in last ten years The depth of the current recession is still largely unknown Stock valuations have never been better Unemployment is now 8.4% and expected to keep rising into 2010 The transition from a Bear market to a Bull market has generally resulted in strong performance – see Exhibit #5 - 7
Market Valued vs. Book Exhibit #1
Endowment Fund Manager Allocation & $22,367,333 Exhibit #2
Performance – 3/31/08 (YTD Returns) ManagersMarket ValueYTD $ ChangeMgr ReturnBenchmark Alliance Bernstein $ 2,960,976 $ 5,6260.3%(11.0%) Marsico $ 3,116,089 $ (219,125)(6.4%)(4.1%) Blackrock $ 2,356,330 $ (289,068)(13.2%)(16.1%) NFJ/Allianz $ 925,848 $ (146,510)(13.4%)(19.6%) Lazard International $ 2,349,629 $ (388,437)(14.0%) Heitman -REIT $ 584,650 $ (252,099)(29.4%)(33.9%) Invesco - REIT $ 520,524 $ (110,976)(23.8%)(33.9%) Blackrock SRI $ 159,282 $ (16,503)(9.1%)(9.6%) Ariel SRI $ 133,681 $ (18,280)(12.0%)(15.0%) Lord Abbett - Convertibles $ 638,021 $ 6,5210.0%2.5% PIMCO $ 8,622,303 $ 112,5571.8%0.1% $ 22,367,333 $ (1,316,294) (5.0%)(7.3%) Exhibit #3
Asset Allocation Strategy Exhibit #4
How Long to Recover Lost Ground? (Last 12 Bear Markets*) *Dow Jones Industrial Index Peak toRecoveryBottom to PeakBottom DatePeak - DaysPeak - Years 5/29/19466/13/ %4/12/ /13/19616/26/ %9/5/ /9/196610/7/ %11/10/ /4/19685/26/ %11/9/ /11/197312/6/ %11/31/ /21/19762/28/ %3/25/ /27/19818/12/ %10/20/ /25/198710/19/ %8/24/ /17/199010/11/ %4/17/ /14/20003/22/ %10/3/ /21/20019/21/ %4/20/ /19/200210/9/ %11/10/ /9/200710/10/ %Average1, Exhibit #5
Why Stay Fully Invested*? *As the table above illustrates, over the last 12 Bear markets the Dow has risen an average of 28.7% every three months as the market recovers Market % Change from the Bottom Bottom1 Mos3 Mos6 Mos9 Mos12 Mos15 Mos18 Mos21 Mos24 Mos 6/13/ %13.4%21.8%25.7%40.1%38.3%41.6%52.2%54.7% 6/26/ %8.0%21.6%27.0%32.3%37.6%41.9%52.3%55.1% 10/7/ %8.7%14.7%16.8%24.8%21.1%16.3%22.6%28.5% 5/26/ %20.5%22.7%39.2%43.6% 29.4%46.2%53.9% 12/6/ %31.9%45.4%44.7%41.8%68.4%66.9%71.2%66.5% 2/28/ %12.1%19.2%8.4%9.0%12.7%19.2%11.9%15.1% 8/12/ %33.9%39.9%56.3%52.3%60.9%49.4%48.9%56.8% 10/19/ %11.4%15.0%20.6%22.9%28.8%37.3%48.6%54.3% 10/11/ %5.8%22.9%25.1%26.2%35.3%37.6%40.8%32.6% 3/22/ %12.9%-12.3%6.9%11.1%-1.5%-15.0%-9.4%-9.2% 9/21/ %21.9%27.3%12.4%-3.0%3.4%3.5%11.7%17.1% 10/9/ %20.5%12.5%25.7%32.9%43.5%43.3%40.2%38.0% Average 9.8%16.7%20.9%25.7%27.8%32.7%31.0%36.4%38.6% Information Source – CNBC.com Exhibit #6
Average Returns – Previous 9 Bear Markets (S&P 500 Index) Average Recovery Period Source Jennison Dryden vie Prudential Investment Management Services Exhibit #7
Thanks for Your Attention