The Impact of Power Plays in NHL Hockey, or: No Dogs Play Hockey Jordan Pedersen, Tom Geiger, and Waleed Khoury

Some Background A team is said to be on a power play when at least one opposing player is serving a penalty AND A team is said to be on a power play when at least one opposing player is serving a penalty AND The team has a numerical advantage on the ice The team has a numerical advantage on the ice Whenever both teams have the same number of penalties being served, there is no power play Whenever both teams have the same number of penalties being served, there is no power play

Methodology Using League Data for this season and the preceding four seasons Using League Data for this season and the preceding four seasons Focusing on Rankings (based on points) and power play conversion percentages Focusing on Rankings (based on points) and power play conversion percentages Regular Season Regular Season

Refresher on 2-Sample T Test Used to analyze whether the difference in means between two independent groups of data is statistically significant Used to analyze whether the difference in means between two independent groups of data is statistically significant 1-sample t-tests are for measuring the difference in mean for a single group versus a hypothesized mean 1-sample t-tests are for measuring the difference in mean for a single group versus a hypothesized mean

Use of the Test Test will be used to see if there is a statistically significant difference between power play conversion percentages for top 15 teams vs. bottom 15 teams (based on their Point total) Test will be used to see if there is a statistically significant difference between power play conversion percentages for top 15 teams vs. bottom 15 teams (based on their Point total) Therefore, our question is… Therefore, our question is… Does the ability to convert power plays really affect a team’s ability to win games? Does the ability to convert power plays really affect a team’s ability to win games?

Current Season Open up PP%Top and Bottom.mtw Open up PP%Top and Bottom.mtw We’ll be doing We’ll be doing A surpriiiiithe? A surpriiiiithe?

Mandatory Class Exercise ¼ of the class does ¼ of the class does ¼ does ¼ does ¼ does ¼ does ¼ does ¼ does : Ties and dogs were banned after the lockout 1: Ties and dogs were banned after the lockout

Relationship between Points (Not Goals) and PP% Linear Regression Model Linear Regression Model Remember, a team is awarded 2 points if they win, 1 point if they lose in OT/shootout, and 0 points if they lose in regulation Remember, a team is awarded 2 points if they win, 1 point if they lose in OT/shootout, and 0 points if they lose in regulation

A Note on Our Failure We tried to compare shooting percentages on and off a power play, but the NHL is skimpy (unhelpful) when it comes to data We tried to compare shooting percentages on and off a power play, but the NHL is skimpy (unhelpful) when it comes to data Shots on goal during power plays were unavailable Shots on goal during power plays were unavailable

Conclusions In general, better teams tend to be better at converting power plays In general, better teams tend to be better at converting power plays But a direct correlation was not to be found But a direct correlation was not to be found More sophisticated data is needed from the league More sophisticated data is needed from the league We attribute this lack of data to lack of dogs in the NHL We attribute this lack of data to lack of dogs in the NHL

Citations sport) sport) sport) sport) Tommy, AJ, and Catherine’s Presentation (for definition of 2-sample t tests) Tommy, AJ, and Catherine’s Presentation (for definition of 2-sample t tests)

Food For Thought… Why is this dog smoking and playing hockey? Why is this dog smoking and playing hockey? What statistical model would most accurately predict this behavior? What statistical model would most accurately predict this behavior?