ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Anne, Yuan YiCarlos, Lam Chunwa Charlotte, Zhou ZitaoDaisy, Wu Ximin Ginger, Zhang JianfangJacky, Chen Yacheng.

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Presentation transcript:

ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Anne, Yuan YiCarlos, Lam Chunwa Charlotte, Zhou ZitaoDaisy, Wu Ximin Ginger, Zhang JianfangJacky, Chen Yacheng May, Chen YumeiYoyo, Io San Wa Business Plan

ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting Applied Business Project – Module V Market Potential Forecasting Presented By Carlos

ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast Assumption Market Timeline Customer average consumption is proportional to the inflation index

ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast MICE Industry Sales MICE Industry Revenue Forecast = No. of Travelers × Market Penetration Rate × Average Consumption Number of Travelers as Proxy Market Cycle Theory Adjusted by inflation index The initial MPR, 1.75%, is calculated as: the Q3 in 2011 MICE participants 129,780 divided by the Q3 number of tourists 7,416,000. MPR growth rate = 10% from 2008 to 2012, 30% from 2013 to 2017, 5% after 2018 Average Consumption = Inflation index * 10

ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast Inflation Forecast Model Validation ModelMSEMAPEMPE Naïve Simple Average Moving Average Double Moving Average Time Series Multiple Regression Double Moving Average

ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast Travelers Forecast Model Validation ModelsMSEMAPEMPE Naïve Simple Average Moving Average Double Moving Average Time Series Multiple Regression Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing

ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast MICE Industry Sales

ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast ForeRunner’s Revenue Forecast ForeRunner Revenue Forecast (Marco Approach) Based on MICE Industry Revenue Market Share Forecast Factors - Customer Loyalty (Cl) - Customer Penetration (Cp) - Customer Selection (Cs) - Price Selection (Ps)

ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast Market Share Forecast StageIntroductionGrowthMaturity Customer Penetration 36.4%54%72.675% Customer Loyalty40%35%45%. Customer Selection60%75%80% Price Selection85%90%100% Forecasted Market Share7.43%12.75%26.16%

ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast ForeRunner Revenue Forecast （ in thousands) Year Incentive Travel Sales 10%, constant Incentive Travel Sales 10% - 20% Incentive Travel Sales 10% - 30% , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Forerunner will have a bright future! Forerunner’s revenue =Industry sales* Forerunner’s market share