Recent activities on NWP and satellite data assimilation at JMA Yoshiaki Sato (JMA/NPD) and colleagues in JMA/NPD 1 The Eleventh Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization (APSDEU-11) and The Twenty Third North-America Europe Data Exchange meeting(NAEDEX-23) 2-6 May 2011, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Contents JMA NWP Systems Updates Developments Super computer upgrades 2

JMA NWP SYSTEMS 3 JMA HQ Building

4 Current NWP models at JMA/NPD deterministic models only GSM: Global Spectral Model short- and medium-range forecast TL959(0.1875deg.) / 60 Layers up to 0.1hPa 84-hours forecast at 00, 06, 18UTC, 216-hours forecast at 12UTC MSM: MesoScale Model Disaster reduction, short-range forecast 5km (3600x2880km) / 50 Layers up to 22km 15-hours forecast at 00,06,12,18UTC, 33-hours forecast at 03,09,15,21UTC LFM: Local Forecast Model Disaster prevention, Aviation forecast 2km (1600x1100km) / 50 Layers up to 21km 9-hours forecast at 00,03,06,09,12,15,18,21UTC The LFM trial operation was started on Nov. 2010, However the operation was stopped on Mar And the operation schedule is under consideration. New! But…

MSM(5km) LFM(2km) Development of Local NWP System 5 Official operation will be started in 2012 Planned specification Horizontal resolution is 2km 60 vertical layers Three-hourly 9 hours forecast System enhancement is planned in 2013 Hourly 9 hours forecast Model domain extension to cover Japan Purpose of the operation Very short range dynamical forecast To predict heavy rain Airport weather forecast To predict local phenomena, such as sudden change of the wind direction. TBD

Sample case of LFM forecast 6 LFM(2km): 107mm/3hr OBS(2km): 240mm/3hr MSM(5km): 69mm/3hr GSM(20km): 35mm/3hr

Rainfall Verification of LFM Rain forecast characteristics of LFM in summer – 20km grid average: The larger bias in the larger threshold – 20km grid max.: The smaller bias than MSM – The larger False Alert Ratio (FAR) 7 FARETSBias MSM/LFM Grid average Grid max.

8 Current DA systems at JMA/NPD GA: Global Analysis (4DVAR) Model resolution: Outer: TL959 / Inner: T159 Data cut off time for Early Analysis: +2h20m for Cycle Analysis: +11h35m(00,12), 5h35m(06,18) Assimilation Window: -3h to +3h MA: Mesoscale Analysis (4DVAR) Model resolution: Outer: 5km / Inner: 15km Data cut off time: +50min. Assimilation Window: -3h to Analysis time LA: Local Analysis (3DVAR Rapid Update Cycle) Resolution: 5km Data cut off time: +30min. Assimilation Window: -30min. to +30min. New! But… The LA trial operation was started on Nov. 2010, However the operation was stopped on Mar And the operation schedule is under consideration.

Operation of GSM/MSM 9 Data Cutoff Time Da00/12: 11 h 35 m Da06/18: 05 h 35 m Ea: 2 h 20 m Ma: 0 h 50 m Da12 Da00 Ea06 Ea18 Ea12 Ea00 Ma00 Ma03 Ma06 Ma09 Ma12 Ma15 Ma18 Ma Da18 Da06 Ef00(~FT84) Ef18(~FT84) Ef12(~FT216) Boundary Condition Cycle Analysis Early Analysis Meso Analysis Ef06(~FT84) For Global Analysis, We have two systems: Early Analysis ( EA ) for weather forecast Cycle Analysis ( DA ) for the better analysis Meso Analysis (MA) is mostly independent of the Global systems, except for the boundary condition and bias the correction coefficients.

Specifications – Horizontal resolution is 5km, 50 vertical layers – Model domain: 2000km x 1500km (400x300grid) – Analysis time: 00,03,06,09,12,15,18,21 （ UTC ） – hourly observation is assimilated – Observation cut off time is 30 minutes (Very Short!) – Data assimilation method: 3D-Var by Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) – Assimilated observations: – AWS (AMeDAS) – Aircraft observations – WPR (Wind profiler) – Doppler velocity – Ground based GPS IPW – Under development: radar reflectivity Operational MSM forecast 3DVAR MSM 3DVAR LFM Operational MSM forecast MSM ＵＴ Ｃ Local Analysis First Guess Analysis Boundary

Observations assimilated at JMA 11 Radiance assimilation in MA was started in the last year. Will be assimilated near future. M G: GA M: MA L: LA

Coverage Map (Early Analysis) 12 SYNOP:N=14825 TEMP:N=604 SHIP:N=2888 BUOY:N=6726 PILOT:N=293 WPROF:N=1405 AVIA:N=18979ASCAT:N=4198 ALL:N=7094ALL:N=14668 ALL:N=5970ALL:N=11805 ALL:N=15944 ALL:N=20415 ALL:N=4088

Coverage Map (Cycle Analysis) 13 SYNOP:N=15396’(+4%) TEMP:N=636(+5%) SHIP:N=3378(+17%) BUOY:N=9235(+37%) PILOT:N=315(+8%) WPROF:N=1618(+15%) AVIA:N=22976(+25%)ASCAT:N=5968(+42%) ALL:N=9719(+37%)ALL:N=16783(+15%) ALL:N=8222(+38%)ALL:N=13642(+30%) ALL:N=23141(+45%) ALL:N=29680(+45%) ALL:N=6859(+68%) With the longer waiting time in DA, the available data number is much larger than the one in EA ! (Total+30%)

Coverage Map (Meso-scale Analysis) 14 Before Dec (retrieval assimilation) After Dec (radiance assimilation)

Updates in JMA data assimilation after Feb 2010 (G) Typhoon bogus scheme upgrade (Apr. 2010) – Bogus number adjustment function was introduced (G) Introduction of GOES-13/CSR, AMV (May 2010) – as replacement of GOES-12/CSR,AMV (G) introduction of Brazilian RARS data (May 2010) (G,M) Introduction of MTSAT-2/CSR, AMV (Aug. 2010) – as replacement of MTSAT-1R/CSR,AMV (M) Introduction of Variational Quality Control (Sep. 2010) (M) Typhoon bogus scheme upgrade (Sep. 2010) – Bogus number adjustment function was introduced (M) Addition of Doppler Velocity data (Oct. 2010) – Four radar sites: Hiroshima, Ishigakijima, Fukui, Osaka 15

Updates in JMA data assimilation after Feb 2010 (G) Introduction of COSMIC refractivity data (Nov. 2010) (G) Improvement on AMSU-A data usage (Nov. 2010) – Channels 6, 7, 8 data are now assimilated over coastal area. (M) Introduction of radiance data assimilation (Dec. 2010) – As replacement of Temperature and IPW retrievals – AMSU-[AB], SSMIS, AMSR-E, TMI, CSR (G) improvement on MODIS AMV usage (Feb. 2011) – DB MODIS AMV and NESDIS MODIS AMV are now assimilated. (G,M) Introduction of Metop direct receiving AMSU-[AB] data (Feb. 2011) 16

Quality Control Issues Low quality data contamination – (G,M) Korean AMDAR data assimilation was stopped between May and September, 2010 Stop using the data (quality degrade) – (G) NOAA-15/AMSU-B (Sep. 2010) – (M) NOAA-17/HIRS (Oct. 2010), Note that ATOVS retrievals are assimilated “BEFORE” Dec – (G) DMSP-F16/SSMIS sounding channels (Oct. 2010) – (G,M) Aqua/AMSU-A/ch5, Feb Aqua/AMSU-A/ch5 NOAA-18/AMSU-A/ch5 RMSE sequence 5 th May5 th Aug. Large O-B data were found

Satellite data assimilation status []: under investigation 18 CSR: Clear Sky Radiance on water vapor channels, AMV: Atmospheric Motion Vector, OSWV: Ocean Surface Wind Vectors, IPW: Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor GPS-RO: Global Positioning System – Radio Occultation Satellite/InstrumentGAMALA 1. MW Sounder NOAA15,16,18,19/AMSU-ARadiance [Radiance] NOAA16,18,19/AMSU-B,MHSRadiance [Radiance] Aqua/AMSU-ARadiance [Radiance] Metop-A/AMSU-A,MHSRadiance [Radiance] DMSP-F18/SSMIS[Radiance] 2. IR Sounder Aqua/AIRS[Radiance] Metop/IASI[Radiance] 3. MW Imager TRMM/TMIRadianceRadiance, Rain Rate[Radiance] Aqua/AMSR-ERadianceRadiance, Rain Rate[Radiance] DMSP-F16,17/SSMISRadianceRadiance, Rain Rate[Radiance] DMSP-F18/SSMIS[Radiance][Radiance, Rain Rate][Radiance] 4. VIS/IR Imager MTSAT-2CSR, AMV [CSR], [AMV] GOES-11,13CSR, AMV-- Meteosat-7,9CSR, AMV-- NOAA/AVHRR[AMV]-- Aqua,Terra/MODISAMV-- 5. Scatterometer Metop-A/ASCATOSWV[OSWV] Oceansat-2/SCAT[OSWV] 6. GPS-RO GRACE/Blackjack[Refractivity] (Under development) Metop-A/GRASRefractivity TerraSAR-X/IGOR[Refractivity] COSMIC/IGORRefractivity

UPDATES 19 Hodo-san mountain shrine in Saitama

Assimilated RARS sites AP-RARS data assimilation: started on 22 Feb EARS data assimilation: started on 2 Aug SA-RARS data assimilation: started on 18 May 2010 – The data are received via GTS through Washington. 20

Doppler Radar Sites (Y. Ishikawa) Radial velocity observation function was added to some radar sites. The data are additionally ingested in MA. 21 Assimilated Radial Velocities, accumulated between 18UTC 22nd and 21UTC 23rd April, 2011 Observation Range of DRAWs is smaller than WDRs. (R=120km/150km)  : Doppler Radar for Airport Weather          shin- chitose narita haneda chubu osaka kansai fukuoka kagoshima naha

COSMIC data assimilation (E. Ozawa) The bias corrected refractivity data are assimilated. Pre-operational impact test results – Zonal mean improvement rate for 72hrs GPH forecast Improvement rate: (RMSE cntl -RMSE test )/RMSE cntl 22 Height [hPa] Red: Test is Better / Blue: Test is Worse SHNHSHNH Jan., 2009Aug., 2009

AMSU-A data usage (H. Murata) 23 These channels’ data are included in this modification. used over the Clear Sky Ocean used over the land used over the coast ch8 ch7 ch6 Each line shows the sensitivity functions for each channels in AMSU-A. With some reasons, We did not use the lower channels’ data over the coast. But we found it brought positive impact !

“Coast” data distribution The data numbers over “land” and “coast” are almost same ! because there are many inland lakes in the world. clear ocean 41% coast 19% land 19% cloudy ocean Rainy ocean Sea Ice

Z500 RMSE improvement rate OSE for this issue. – Cntl: same as the past routine, – Test: use the lower channels over the coast improvement rate : (RMSE cntl -RMSE test )/RMSE cntl – against the own initial conditions – The result show the positive impact mostly. 25 Summer TestWinter Test Better

ETS EXP1 Radiance assimilation in MA (M. Kazumori) Satellite radiance assimilation system was developed – Preprocessor is the same module as the one used in GA. – Data thinning interval is 45km. – Above the model top, T and Q profiles are extrapolated. – Employed RTM is RTTOV9.3. – Bias correction coefficients are taken from GA. Data usage – ATOVS-T and MWR-PW are unused. – ATOVS-Radiance, MWR-Radiance, SSMIS-Radiance, MTSAT/CSR are used. The impacts – RMSE on temperature analysis against sonde is reduced. – ETS against radar estimated rainfall data is improved mostly This system was introduced into operation in Dec

The model top issue 27 MSM4D-Var MSM4DVAR These data cannot be used because of the model top issue ! O: The channel is used in Global Analysis and Meso-scale Analysis O: The channel is used in Global Analysis only. The model top is around 40hPa. Channel 9 and 10 is not available because the weighting function shows the sensitivity extends to the higher levels.

Sample of the O-B histogram 28 Red: GA, Blue : MA The histogram pattern is almost same in the channels 4-8. But the error in MA is much larger than GA in the channel 9. The cause is the model top height.  We are requesting to the MSM developers to raise up the model top. Averaged O-B, Oct O-B: Observation – Background Background: The first guess

Start using MODIS DB Winds and NESDIS Winds 29 OldNew CIMSS （ Rtn ） CIMSS DB NESDIS It makes the data coverage wider especially in the Early Analysis. And the data thinning intervals are modified.

DEVELOPMENTS 30 A country side of Tohoku Area

Radar Reflectivity (Y.Ikuta) We have a plan to start assimilation of the pseudo-RH data retrieved from 3D radar reflectivity by Bayesian method near future. 31 The First GuessObservation The Analysis Pseudo-RH assimilation The echo position was relocated appropriately!

Scatterometer (M. Takahashi) ASCAT data are assimilated operationally in GA, – only under 15m/s because of the wind speed bias – Use of NESDIS winds is under investigation. – The assimilation in MA is also investigated. Oceansat-2/SCAT – Just start checking the data. 32 NESDIS Winds KNMI Winds

Ground-based GPS (K. Yoshimoto) In Japan, GEONET (operated by The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan) data are used for IPW retrievals. – And the IPW data are assimilated in MA. IGS (International GNSS Service) data are investigated for GA. 33 Better GEONET sites IGS sites Preliminary Test Improvement Rate for GPH forecast IGS-IPW Sonde-IPW Global, NH, SH, TR

LEOGEO-AMVs (M. Kazumori and K. Yamashita) Just start getting LEOGEO-AMVs from Wisconsin Univ. It can complement the data blank between the GEO AMVs and the polar AMVs 34 Addition of LEOGEO AMVsOperationally assimilated AMVs

SUPER COMPUTER UPGRADE 35 Tokyo station in Autumn

JMA HPC upgrade Upgrade “was” planned on March 2012 – The schedule must be changed later… Machine: HITACHI next SR series – Peak performance: 829.4TFLOPS 2 sub-systems: 414.7TFLOPS x 2 – Operation + Backup (Model Development) Memory: 108TB High-speed Storage: 348TB Data Storage: 3.7PB + Tape Library 36 ?

Current NWP model upgrade plan #1/2 37 ModelCurrentPlanned GSM Global Spectral Model ResolutionTL959L60TL959L100 Initial time00,06,12,18UTC-> Forecast period216hour for 12utc 84hour for else -> Assimilation4DVAR WEPS One-Week Ensemble Prediction System ResolutionTL319L60TL479L100 Initial time12UTC00,12UTC Member5127 x 2 Forecast period216hour432hour(13member) 216hour(14member) TEPS Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System ResolutionTL319L60TL479L100 Initial time00,06,12,18UTC-> Member1125 Forecast period132hour->

38 Current NWP model upgrade plan #2/2 ModelCurrentPlanned MSM Meso Scale Model Resolution5km(721x577x50)5km(817x661x75) Initial time00,03,06,09, 12,15,18,21UTC -> Forecast period15hour for 00,06,12,18UTC 33hour for 03,09,15,21UTC 36hour Analysis4DVAR LFM Local Forecast Model Resolution2km(800x550x60)2km(1581x1301x60) Initial time00,03,06,09, 12,15,18,21UTC Hourly Forecast period9hour-> Assimilation3DVAR MEPS Meso Ensemble Prediction System Resolution-10km(409x331x60) (TBD) Initial time-00,06,12,18UTC Member-5 (TBD) Forecast period-39hour

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION 39 A rainbow observed near meteorological satellite center of JMA in 23 rd April 2011