Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Session 4.3. Forecast Analysis & Scenario Development

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Learning Objectives 2 After this session, participants should be able to:  Explain the importance and value of identifying the opportunities & threats (shocks) likely to affect food & nutrition security  List and apply four key elements – i.e. frequency, probability of occurrence, expected timing of occurrence, and severity or benefit scale - to analyse opportunities & shocks

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Where are we? 3 EFSA Process Adapt conceptual framework & objectives Prepare analysis plan: indicators, data, sources Collect, review secondary data Collect primary data Conduct situation analysis Conduct forecast analysis Analyse response options Make response recommendations Prepare report

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 4 Forecasting  is, by definition, uncertain  requires assumptions – and good judgment

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 5 Forecasting process 1. Identify opportunities & shocks likely to affect food & nutrition security 2. Develop scenario(s) describing how situation could evolve in absence of assistance 3. Identify groups most likely to be impacted in most likely scenario

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 6 1.Identify opportunities & shocks likely to affect food & nutrition security 1

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 7 Opportunities: Events that will likely improve the situation Can be natural or man-made Shocks: Events with likely negative impact Can be natural or man- made

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 8 Examples: opportunities and shocks OpportunitiesShocks Natural Return of rains Locusts Drought Man- made Peace agreement Suspension of trade restrictions Conflict Imposition of trade restrictions Some examples of opportunities and shocks in countries of participants?

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 9 Analyzing opportunities & shocks: 4 elements Frequency Probability of occurrence Expected timing of occurrence Severity or benefit scale Low? Average? High? Recurrent? Persistent? Occasional? Reasonably predictable? unpredictable? Low? Average? High?

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 10 Need to disaggregate Opportunities / shocks affect different groups differently Disaggregation by sex, age, health status, ethnicity or other relevant characteristic

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 11 Exercise 4.3.a. Analysing Opportunities & Shocks Identify an opportunity or crisis that could affect your country: Analyze by: 1. Frequency (recurrent? persistent? occasional?) 2. Probability of occurrence (low-average-high?) 3. Expected time of occurrence (predictable or not?) 4. Severity of impact on food and nutrition security (low-average-high?)

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 12 2.Develop scenarios describing how situation could evolve in absence of assistance 2

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 13 Note on scenarios What is a scenario?  A description of the situation that could occur if certain things happen  It documents assumptions on how the situation might evolve Why elaborate scenarios? To predict evolution of food & nutrition security situation and orient response options analysis

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 14 Which scenarios? How many? Consider:  Opportunities and shocks: dominant and secondary events  How will these affect food security, lives and livelihoods?  Most likely scenario and worst case scenario

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 15 3.Identify groups most likely to be impacted in most likely scenario 3

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 16 Scenarios & affected groups  Take “most likely” scenario; relate it to current situation  Determine if situation of food insecure – of at risk groups – will change in this scenario (improve or deteriorate)  Identify food secure and not-at-risk groups whose situation is expected to deteriorate in the most likely scenario

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 17 Estimate numbers of food insecure in the most likely scenario Begin with: Number of HHs currently food insecure and whose lives and livelihoods are at risk Add (+): Number of HHs who will become food insecure and at greater risk Deduct (-): Number of HHs who are currently food insecure and whose lives and livelihoods are at risk whose situation is expected to improve

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 18 Exercise 4.3.b. Developing Scenarios  Each Working Group: consider the opportunities & shocks for your case  1 hour + 1 hour discussion Scenario & probability (1-5; 5 = most likely) Period Opportunity or shock Groups most likely affected Scenario A Scenario B