I NDICATORS OF C LIMATE C HANGE IN I DAHO : T HE INTERSECTION OF BIOPHYSICAL CHANGE WITH SOCIAL PERCEPTION ACROSS A DIVERSE LANDSCAPE Authors*: Zion Klos, John Abatzoglou, Jarod Blades, Melissa Clark, Chistopher Currie, Megan Dodd, Sanford Eigenbrode, Troy Hall, Amanda Haruch, Jeff Hicke, Phil Higuera, Joseph Holbrook, Vincent Jansen, Kerry Kemp, Alycia Lamar, Amber Lankford, Tim Link, Troy Magney, Arjan Meddens, Liza Mitchell, Brandon Moore, Penny Morgan, Beth Newingham, Ryan Niemeyer, Ben Soderquist, Alexis Suazo, Christa Teston, Kerri Vierling, Von Walden, Chelsea Walsh *University of Idaho, multiple colleges and departments 1

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S TALK 1.Objectives 2.Methods – Biophysical changes – Social perceptions 3.Results 4.New Insights for Climate Change Assessments 5.Outreach Goals Above and cover photo courtesy Matthew Dolkas 2

M AIN O BJECTIVES 1.Provide a framework for finer-scale, indicator- focused climate change assessments 2.Provide a case example that compares perceived impacts and observed indicators of climate change 3.Understand the differences between types of climate change indicators & how they can be classified by their utility for climate assessments Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 3

I NTERDISCIPLINARY M ETHODS 1.Graduate-student led with input from faculty advisors 2.Conducted stakeholder survey of perceived CC impacts 3.Identified biophysical data sources and CC indicators 4.Created a final interdisciplinary synthesis and translation of findings for general audience Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 4

BIOPHYSICAL CHANGES: OUR INDICATORS FRAMEWORK... “Climate Change Indicators” defined as: Observed climate-related trends in variables from physical, ecological, and social systems Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 5

SOCIAL PERCEPTIONS: OUR SURVEY FRAMEWORK… What is most important and useful? – Impacts (outcomes) of climate change – Indicators of change Exploratory survey (N= 100) – Managers asked about personal and professional significance 6 Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

PERCEIVED IMPACTS 7 Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

Relevant Climate Change Indicators Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 8 Top 3 Climate Measures and Indicators Normalized Importance (%)

Relevant Climate Change Indicators Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 9 Top 3 Climate Measures and Indicators Normalized Importance (%)

C LIMATE C HANGE I NDICATORS I DENTIFIED Temperature – Average annual temperature – Frost-free growing season Precipitation – Precipitation phase – Snowpack accumulation and melt – Precipitation intensity Water Systems – Streamflow Annual discharge Timing of peak and 50% flow – Stream temperature Ecological Indicators – Phenology Lilac blooms Mountain Bluebird nesting dates (state bird!) Salmon migration – Disturbance Wildfire Bark beetle kill – Species viability and productivity Sagebrush Social Indicators – Heat related illness – Recreation Ski season 10 Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

I NTENSIFICATION OF P RECIPITATION E VENTS Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

FROST-FREE GROWING SEASON 12 Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

13 N EW I NSIGHTS FOR C LIMATE C HANGE A SSESSMENTS

Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 14 N EW I NSIGHTS FOR C LIMATE C HANGE A SSESSMENTS CC Indicator Type

Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach CC Indicator Type vs. Perceived Level of Impact 15 N EW I NSIGHTS FOR C LIMATE C HANGE A SSESSMENTS

Direct measure of climate Variable partially influenced by climate Fire disturbance Air temperature Snowpack Streamflow Precipitation Species movements Animal phenology Stream temperature Plant phenology Biotic disturbance Species viability & productivity Drought Human activities Example indicators of climate change Perceived level of impact in Idaho B D C A N EW I NSIGHTS FOR C LIMATE C HANGE A SSESSMENTS 16 Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

O UTREACH G OALS 1.Website, Online PDF, & Executive Summary – Re-written using more general language – State-wide distribution Peer Reviewed Publication 17 Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

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R ESPONSES AND P ERCEIVED I MPACTS BY S ECTOR Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach 20 State Agency Federal Agency NGO Corporate or Private Other Climate Indicator

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