WDTB Winter Wx Workshop Oct. 8-11, 2002 Summary

Why Train on Winter Wx? Significant hazard to life and property deaths / year $ 1 to 2 Billion / year Very difficult to forecast mesoscale events, pinpoint locations/timing/precip type of many large scale events due to complex nature of phenomena

Performance Measures 15 hr Lead Time on Warnings 90% POD 27% FAR Focus on science and societal impacts to improve services

New Policy Directives NWSI Outlooks –>30 % chance of event in next 3-5 days Watches –>50 % chance of event in next hrs Warnings –80% chance of event exceeding local criteria in next 36 hrs Mention specific amounts

New Directives Get out of comfort zone Learn from failure Develop local criteria that meets user needs Determine optimal lead times for decision makers

Winter Weather Forecast Process PDS Competency Units based on Specific Job Duties in the Winter Weather Warning Process The PDS includes training on the tools, methodologies, time lines, and strategies used in preparing winter weather watches, advisories, and warnings

User Needs (PCU1) Assess customer requirements and societal impacts related to our winter weather products and services Optimize lead times to help decision makers –IC 1 Eastern Region Best Practices Report –See handout and user needs presentation

Climatology (PCU 2) Rarity of storms (use Grumm’s web site) – gov/workshop/Winter WxII/Presentations/sig wxau02-new.ppthttp:// gov/workshop/Winter WxII/Presentations/sig wxau02-new.ppt Recognize Arctic Outbreak Patterns –See Brad Bramer’s presentation

Conceptual Models (PCU 3 – 4) Important to give physical basis for forecast adjustments Subjective and Objective forecaster techniques Synoptic NWP MesoscaleAdjustments IFPS grids

NWP (PCU 2-4) Continues to improve with better resolution pcpn schemes Know changes to GFS, Eta, NMM, RUC- 20, SREF output –METED web site – xII/Presentations/WHATSNEW.PPThttp:// xII/Presentations/WHATSNEW.PPT

HPC Guidance (PCU 2 to 4 ) Use it –Know terms Coordinate with HPC – I/Presentations/winterwx2.shwhttp:// I/Presentations/winterwx2.shw

Ensembles (PCU 2-3) Use them in objective forecast process to recognize consistencies or uncertainties in model output Not always right! – v/mmb/SREF/SREF.htmlhttp://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.go v/mmb/SREF/SREF.html

Synoptic Assessment (PCU 3) QG forcing and Fn – resentations/SCHULTZ_.PPThttp:// resentations/SCHULTZ_.PPT Ingredients method (4-panel method of diagnosis) – mlhttp://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/visit/ingredients.ht ml

Precipitation Type Forecasting (PCU 3-4) Microphysics (top down approach) –Know strengths and limitations of various precipitation type techniques / algorithms (eg, Ramer, Bourgouin, Baldwin, etc) Use BUFKIT (dendritic growth zone, pcpn type) – htmlhttp://wdtb.noaa.gov/resources/projects/BUFKIT/index. html – tations/ptype_wdtb_day3_aug2002.shwhttp:// tations/ptype_wdtb_day3_aug2002.shw –Complete exercise form using BUFKIT

Precip Type Fcstg Methodology beyond 72 hours (PCU 3) Use pattern recognition and assess thickness values

Use most consistent model to target potential Top down approach –Ice… –12C Identify range of possibilities Precip Type Fcstg Methodology 24 to 72 hours (PCU 3)

Still use top down approach with higher resolution models but begin to incorporate more remotely sensed data to modify model output Precip Type Fcstg Methodology within 24 hours of expected event (PCU 4)

Mesoscale Analysis /Real-time (PCU 4 – 5) Banding potential (location of Fn) SPC meso guidance Use satellite trends for timing of features, forcing mechanisms, tstms can warm sfc T Radar orientations/ echo circles/bright band Use Spotters Presentations/frontogenesis_talk_ ppthttp:// Presentations/frontogenesis_talk_ ppt

Topo forcing (PCU 4) Know basics of mountain flow – COMET web site – htmhttp://meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/flowtopo/index. htm Improved grid spacing can help

Use of Mesoscale Models (PCU 4) Goal is to improve knowledge of the forecast process and use of mesoscale models Big Bang for Buck Can help forecasters determine local responses to various weather regimes –If you capture the forcing, you can capture the response –See Bob Roz.’s LAM considerations (domain size, time, resolution, phenom of interest)

Forecasting Blizzards/High winds (PCU 5) Recognize factors for development –Brad Bramer’s talk –Review representative case study (Sept. 11, 2001)

Effective Communication (PCU 6) Timing is everything Make sure our products tell the whole story –Snow accum not enough – societal impacts should be coordinated prior to the season

IFPS Smart Tools Precipitation type algorithm

Scenario Lessons Learned Coordination with HPC and adjacent WFOs helped in the decision-making process Coordination with HPC and adjacent WFOs helped in the decision-making process SREF ensembles helped in the forecast process SREF ensembles helped in the forecast process 4-panels of “ingredients”, 2-D Fn helpful, model soundings (using BUFKIT) great for p- type forecasting (Weta) 4-panels of “ingredients”, 2-D Fn helpful, model soundings (using BUFKIT) great for p- type forecasting (Weta) satellite trends helpful in snowfall rates and amounts satellite trends helpful in snowfall rates and amounts

Where do you go from here? All presentations will be on WDTB winter weather web site (wdtb.noaa.gov ) Make training stick by being an example Use the PDS on winter weather You’ll be hearing from us after this winter to see how techniques & training were applied

Making Training Stick Like Glue Plan Research Inform and communicate expectations Objectively Observe Role Model Inspire, instill, internalize Test techniques Yes attitude

Summary