SLAC NLC & ILC Cost Modeling Ray Larsen January 28, 2006

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen2 Outline  Review of Lehman 1999 NLC Cost Effort Organization of Effort, Definitions, Teams, Responsibilities Conceptual Design Cost Modeling, Guidelines Example Summary Cost Chart Documenting, Costing R&D Plans Configuration Control, Loaded Schedules, R&D Phase Cost Charts  ILC Modeling Example Cryo Section Instrumentation  Appendix 1: NLC Cost Rules, Guidance, Definitions

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen3 NLC Cost Organization

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen4 Technical System Definitions  Technical Systems include generic systems and activities (e.g.. Installation) not specific to one area of the NLC, but apply over many areas. Systems include: Sources: Electron and positron source systems RF: Klystrons, modulators, low level rf, rf structures and waveguide delivery systems Magnet Systems: Magnets, power supplies, cable plants, cooling Movers, Supports, Optical Anchor: Motors and controls for magnets and structures, structures, optical anchor Vacuum: Manifolds, pumps, electronics and cabling Collimators, Beam Dumps: Mechanics, instruments Instrumentation: Source lasers, laser wire scanners, synchrotron light monitors, profile monitors, toroid current monitors, etc.

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen5 Definitions - Continued Global Timing: Master oscillators, stabilization, fiducial distribution, imbedded timing control chips Global Controls & Protection: Controls architecture, networks, distributed controls, feedback, software systems, machine protection, beam containment, personnel protection, racks Systems Installation: Installing beamline devices & systems Manufacturing facilities: Factories, shops, preassembly, testing Conventional Facilities: Sites, buildings, tunnels, utilities, environmentals, etc.) Project Planning & Management: Tools, methods, costs, schedules, engineering standards, etc.

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen6 Technical Systems Engineering Teams  TSETs responsibilities include: Planning, cost analysis and scheduling for WBS1 (design and construction) and WBS2 (conceptual design and R&D) Reliability engineering and risk analysis applied to design, manufacturing, installation, checkout phases Optimization and standardization of system designs across all areas of the machine Design reviews, vendor development, documentation standards  TSETs combine Mechanical, Electrical and Facilities engineering disciplines as appropriate to each system. Each TSET is led by 1-2 Team Coordinators.

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen7 TSET Personnel

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen8 Global Systems & Planning

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen9 TSET Reporting Responsibilities  Area Managers and Coordinators are responsible for major machine areas: Injection, Main Linacs, Beam Delivery. TSETs are responsible to Area Managers.  TSETs: Receive system requirements from and generate responses to each Area Manager. Area Coordinators are liaisons and members of the TSET. Work with Area Managers & Coordinators to achieve integrated, optimal, cost effective system solutions. Collaborate with Area Managers & Coordinators to define appropriate Conceptual Design and R&D goals for the CDR project.

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen10 CD R&D, Construction Cost Modeling  TSET Functions (typical) Choose model for basis of estimate Develop Definitions, Descriptions, Specifications Perform scaling, parametric or bottoms up estimates Follow standard checklist to estimate activities, materials, labor, equipment Evaluate risk factors for contingency calculation (Note1) Produce top level cost summaries in Excel Coordinate data transfer to Planning Group for WBS Collect subsystem documentation into Cost Book (1) Later changed to adding global contingency to 50% confidence cost model

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen11 NLC Cost Guidelines & Standards  Detailed guidelines for cost estimating posted on Website  Subsystem/Component Top Level Cost Summaries - 2/99  Note: Lehman Review task was to develop R&D budget for next 2 years PLUS construction cost estimate. Construction included ED&I as well as some R&D overlap. Abbreviated Checklist:  Design  Reliability engineering (HA)  Design reviews  Prototyping  Developing multiple vendors  Contracting test quantities and QC  Testing early designs and QA  Preparing bid packages  Awarding contracts  Manufacturing and QC  Acceptance testing and QA  System assembly  Installation, systems integration  System testing  Commissioning

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen12 Standard Checklist - Sample

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen13 Summary Global Systems (230 $M)

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen14 CD & R&D Planning  Conceptual Design includes: Iteration/finalization of Requirements, Specifications, Descriptions Design, modeling, simulations, reliability studies, cost and risk analysis, documentation, CDR preparation  R&D Programs include: Reducing technical risk- proof of principle of new designs Improving reliability and efficiency, reducing operations costs Reducing cost risk- back cost estimates with industry proposals, prototype designs or quotations.  Task: Develop WBS2 Cost & Schedule Identify critical tasks CD-1 to CD-2, generate costs & manpower loaded schedule, integrate with Primavera WBS2

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen15 Conceptual Design Key Goals DateMilestoneDeliverables MayNLC CD-1 ModelDOE “Lehman” Review NovemberCDR 0.4 ProgressCDR Outline Functional Requirements 2000 MayCDR 0.4 Design ReviewTechnical Specifications Designs/Component Lists; Risk/FMEA Analysis; Costs/Schedules; Priorities for NLC CDR 0.8 NovemberCDR 0.8 Progress 2001 MayCDR 0.8 Design ReviewAccelerator Design Complete Designs/Component Lists; Risk/FMEA; Cost/Schedules; Priorities for NLC CDR 1.0 NovemberCDR 1.0 ProgressDesigns/Components Complete Technical Specifications Complete 2002 MayCDR 1.0 Design ReviewCosts and Schedules Complete; Final Risk Analysis; Continuing R&D Plans Complete; Draft CDR Complete JulyCDR Complete Supporting R&D is mapped, costed, and loaded into Primavera.

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen16 Engineering Configuration Control  Conceptual Design Key Goals Complete iteration of functional requirements & technical specifications within one year Complete final technical specifications by November  Machine Configuration will be defined and formalized as goals are completed.  Configuration Control (CC) must begin during CD phase prior to approval to start Engineering Design.  CC implementation a significant milestone demonstrating Design Phase readiness by formal handoff of firm specs from Physics to Engineering.

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen17 CD R&D Plans

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen18 CD R&D Plans-2

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen19 Potential Cost Reduction Radiation-Hard Tunnel Electronics  BPMs, Movers, Vacuum electronics may lower costs 30-40% by cable plant reductions  Radiation Physics(*) calculates 7 R/hr at 1 m from linac beamlines. Sensitive (non-rad hard) electronics can be shielded with 4 in. lead. Shielding non-trivial.  Radiation hardened electronics w/o shielding tolerates 500 krad-1 MRad total dose, >10 yr. lifetime. Newer <0.35 µm processes tolerate ~ 10 MRad without degradation.  Potential advantages must be weighed vs. reliability/repair implications.  (*)Preliminary estimates of the radiation levels inside the Next Linear Collider Linac Tunnel, S. Rokni, J.C.Liu, S.Mao, SLAC Radiation Physics Note, September 25, 1998

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen20 R&D Schedules  Detailed schedules for each TSET CDR Project in development, using MS Project, for ultimate integration into the Primavera Project master schedule.  Resource loaded FY99- FY02 for CD and R&D activities.  Schedules completed for: Mechanical Systems, Global Controls, Timing, BPMs, Mover Systems, Magnet Systems, Vacuum Systems, Modulators, Low Level RF, Instrumentation, and Machine Protection.  Others are in process.  All schedules will migrate to Primavera when completed.

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen21 Resource Loaded Schedule - Movers

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen22 Task Usage Cost Report - Movers

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen23 CDR Project Resources  Budget Plan for each TSET CD/R&D program developed and integrated into Primavera for: Conceptual Design R&D Labor and M&S categories  Budgets profiled by Quarters (FY99-02)  Budget breakdowns for Technical Systems shown in the following graphs. Note: Costs for RF, Modulators and LLRF not included. Refer to Main Linacs section.

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen24 R&D Budgets (- Global) $7M

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen25 R&D Global Systems $5.5M

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen26 R&D TSET Engineering FTE’s

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen27 CD Phase R&D Budgets ($12.5M)

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen28 Manpower Planning  CD Phase plans show strong rampup FY01-02  Additional Engineering manpower from Collaborating Institutions indicated  Current plan in operation with LBNL, and LLNL & Bechtel-Nevada (latter for Modulator R&D).  Future collaboration with LBNL planned in chip design and Controls.  Future collaboration with Fermilab desired in Controls, Software and other areas of need.

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen29 Lehman Questions for Readiness for CD1 1. Are Technical Status, Planning and Management Tools ready? 2. Are R&D Phase cost, schedule and resources adequate? 3. Is the Management Structure adequate? 4. Is the NLC CD-1 description complete? 5. Are preliminary (WBS1) costs and schedules adequate starting points?

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen30 ILC Cost Exercise Example  Conceptual Design Tunnel Instrumentation Topology Installation Model Cable plant Instrument Packaging Space Model Rack Profiles Tunnel Systems Integration

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen31 RF Sub-System Design Development - DRAFT RF Support Tunnel Layout – BCD Model By C. Corvin, SLAC per data from S. Choroba, DESY

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen32 RF Sub-System Design Development BCD-ACD Tunnel RF Penetration Layout

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen33 Waveguide Distribution Detail Courtesy DESY

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen34 Cryo Section Block Diagram ~ 30m

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen35 Instrumentation Cables per CM

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen36 Assumptions  Assume 3-Penetration Model per Klystron (~30m) Need to keep diameter small for radiation Each penetration has one WG and 2-3 cable conduits Racks located near each penetration in support tunnel No electronics in tunnel for this model All electronics in racks packaged in ATCA modules, crates  Example: BPM Model In PEP, 2 channels per CAMAC module In ILC, one channel per ATCA Mezzanine Card, 4 cards per Carrier Module (conservative)

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen37 Model & Cost Tasks  Develop total system model for a Cryo module for all local instruments BPM, LLRF, Vacuum, Movers, Temperature etc.  Scale for different Areas Main Linacs, Damping Rings, Injectors etc.  Create cost spread sheets in Excel including ED&I, B&H, Installation, System Testing  Send to Cost group to integrate into WBS  Documents full model, assumptions in Cost Book for each subsystem

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen38 Appendix 1 NLC Cost Rules, Guidance & Definitions

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen39 Cost Rules (J.Cornuelle 3/25/00)

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen40 Cost Rules – 2 (J.Cornuelle 3/25/00)

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen41 Cost Guidance (R. Larsen, 3/30/00)

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen42 Cost Definitions

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen43 General Definitions

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen44 Definitions Labor, M&S, B&H

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen45 General Definitions -2

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen46 Guidelines for Applying Labor Rates

January 30, 2006ILC Cost Modeling R.S. Larsen47 Rates & Codes Table 4.1: Labor Rates and Personnel Codes