Observations to Operations: Why validation is important? Julie Thomas Scripps Institution of Oceanography Hydrographic Review Panel Los Angeles, CA April.

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Presentation transcript:

Observations to Operations: Why validation is important? Julie Thomas Scripps Institution of Oceanography Hydrographic Review Panel Los Angeles, CA April 9, 2015

Southern California Coastal Observing System -SCCOOS

SCCOOS Surface Currents HF Radar, Santa Catalina provides surface currents

CDIP Mission: Based at SIO since 1975 ~58 Wave Stations ~58 Wave Stations LIDAR & In-Situ Beach LIDAR & In-Situ BeachSurveys 17 People 17 People Major Funding by: Major Funding by: USACE, DPR Partners Partners (IOOS, NOAA (IOOS, NOAA CA Coastal Conservancy CA Coastal Conservancy ONR/NAVY…) ONR/NAVY…) Monitor and predict nearshore waves and shoreline change. Coastal Data Information Program

CDIP Wave Buoys – NAVIGATION http ://cdip.ucsd.edu 4.4 million page views from Jun 2013 – Jun 2014 Data sent to 30 min and distributed to NWS

Full Directional Spectrum exposure for San Pedro buoy (2000-present)

Recent Damage to the Breakwater: >8ft South Swell

CDIP’s high resolution wave models allows for accurate forecasts. Spatial variation due to island shadowing allows coastal variability. Wave heights Differ according to direction of the waves. PORT of Los Angeles and Long Beach Big waves, big trouble? headline in Occounty.com, Jul 24, 2009 Pilots xfer 4 mi out

Port of Long Beach Under Keel Clearance! Approach channel is Dredged ~ 2 miles offshore Presently VLCC’s with 65’ draft enter the port. Must have 10% UKC. Panamax Vessels 69ft draft 1200’ Length: 1 ⁰ pitch = 10.47ft

Importance of Validation Accuracy of Under Keel Clearance is critical for human and vessel safety. MODELS need to be tested under all conditions (Approximately 1 year of wave heights and wave directions). Small errors due to boundary conditions, island shadowing, bathymetry can propagate.

VLCC – 1200 ft length June San Pedro Wave Buoy measured 21ft peak, at sec. An ATC Oil Tanker rolled 10 degrees at the Long Beach Breakwater entrance. The vessel had a 55 ft draft, 160 ft wide. The roll increased the draft to 64 feet. (Channel currently dredged to 69ft)

SP m Depth (68.27 ft) SP m Depth (83.20 ft) - Installation of San Pedro South - Wave model locations identified and hourly submission to ProTide

San Pedro Buoy observation vs WW3 Model Predictions - Messaging to Jacobsen Pilots Model is over predicting by >1 ft Significant Wave height. Prediction site: SP018 Date (PST)14+ Hs14+ Tp14+ DpTot HsTot TpTot Dp (ft) (secs)(deg T)(ft) (secs)(deg T) :00 pm :00 pm :00 pm :00 am :00 am :00 am :00 am

San Pedro Real-Time Observations and Models

UKC project is a perfect example of federal, state and local partnerships are workin g!