Economic Outlook December 2014 Economic Policy Division

U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q to Q Real GDP Trillion 2009 Dollars Log Scale $15.0 $9.0 $18.0 $12.5 $6.5 Forecast

U.S. GDP per Capita: Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q to Q Dollars

U.S. GDP: Estimates of Potential Quarterly, Q to Q4 2017

Comparing Recessions Trough GDP Loss (Peak to Trough) Duration of Recession GDP Growth in the following year GDP Growth in the following 3 years Months from end of recession until we reached prior employment peak Months from end of recession until GDP reached potential May 1954 (II) -2.5 (%)10 (months)7.9 (%) April 1958 (II) February 1961 (I) November 1970 (IV) March 1975 (I) November 1982 (IV) March 1991(I) November 2001 (IV) June 2009 (II) NA

Real GDP Outlook

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Personal Consumption Outlook

Real Disposable Personal Income

Household Net Worth Household Wealth

Household Net Worth Household Wealth

Household Balance Sheet Household Assets Household Liabilities

Consumer Debt Service

Domestic Bank Lending

Consumer Confidence

Auto & Light Truck Sales

Housing Market Trends Housing Starts Median Home Prices Home Sales Housing Affordability Index

Housing Market Trends Housing Inventory Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates

Real Business Fixed Investment

Investment Drivers Industrial Production Capacity Utilization

Sector Indicators ATA Truck Tonnage Index Total Rail Carloadings Boxboard Production Monthly Leasing and Finance Index

Domestic Bank Lending

Business Confidence ISM Manufacturing Index

Oil

Natural Gas

Labor Market Total Nonfarm Jobs Initial Unemployment Claims Unemployment Rate November 5.8% Household Employment

Civilian Participation Rate Duration of Unemployment Part-time for Economic Reasons Discouraged Workers Labor Market

Employment-Population Ratio Percent

Labor Market

Interest Rate Spreads Risk Spread Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield Yield Spread 10-Year Treasury – 3 month Treasury TED Spread 3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month Treasury

Fed Policy Bank Assets and Liabilities

U.S. Trade Real Net Exports of Goods and Services U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate

Eurozone Growth and Jobs Source: Oxford Economics

Eurozone Monetary Policy Source: Oxford Economics

European Growth Source: Oxford Economics

United Kingdom Growth and Jobs Source: Oxford Economics

Emerging Markets Real GDP

Deficit to GDP CBO’s Baseline Deficit (August 2014) Budget Deficit

Government Baseline Outside Debt (CBO’s Baseline – August 2014) Debt to GDP Debt

Government Gross Debt (CBO’s Baseline – August 2014) Gross Debt to GDP Gross Debt

Government Revenues and Outlays ( percent of GDP) Source: CBO Baseline (August 2014)

Discretionary Entitlements Net Interest Government Outlays

Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security Other Spending Mandatory Spending Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security Other Spending

FY 2013 Revenues and Outlays Outlays Source: CBO Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary

FY 2024 Revenues and Outlays Outlays Source: CBO Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary

Individual Income Tax Social Insurance Taxes Corporate Income Tax Other Taxes Government Revenues by Source