ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO Fundamental Concepts for Essential Principal: Through observations and our understanding of atmospheric processes, humans can simulate the past, present and future behavior of the atmosphere Breakout session: 8b, Second round Recorder: Rob Payo Reporter: Blanche Meeson

ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO General discussion ► FCs should include the range of activities of making observations all the way to making meaning and interpretation of data ► Redefine FCs: Make a progression of the process using each of the steps  Observation  Instruments  Analysis  Tools: simulation

ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO Fundamental Concept #1: revised ► Humans observe and measure the physical and chemical state of the atmosphere.  We use surface-, sub-surface-, air-, and space-based instruments to observe & measure the atmosphere  We also use proxy data sets (ice cores, sediment layers, tree rings, etc.) to understand past weather & climate patterns  Sustained observations are necessary

ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO Fundamental Concept #2: revised ► Observations and data are synthesized, analyzed and interpreted in order to understand and enable prediction of the behavior of the atmosphere.

ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO Fundamental Concept #3: revised Understanding of uncertainties, probabilities and risk bound/constrain our ability to simulate the past, present, and future behavior of the atm and apply to decision making  Observations help to set the bounds and limits of what models and simulations can do  They help refine the predictive models through assimilation  It is not complete uncertainty, we know to what extent we’re uncertain  Geosciences: blending of sciences, not a controlled env—rely on math tools to help you state that observations are representations of the real world with certainty. You can’t control the experiment, rely on math as a proxy  Understanding the limits and uncertainty as an aspect of atmospheric science

ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO Fundamental Concept #4: Revised We use theoretical understanding and observations to construct, refine, and improve computer models which are used to simulate atmospheric behavior.

ASCL Workshop— Boulder, CO Fundamental Concept #5: Revised Our increased understanding comes about with improvements in resolution of observation and simulation in space and time.