Future of Children Chapter 1: The Science of Climate Change Jesse K. Anttila-Hughes University of San Francisco Department of Economics Michael Oppenheimer Princeton University Woodrow Wilson School March 12 th, 2015

Overview History of human understanding of climate change Overview of physical problem – Different sources of knowledge, scale, lags, public nature, negativity of impacts Specific vulnerabilities of children – Direct and indirect effects; mediation by social phenomena Observed changes to date – Temp increase, sea level rise, extremes, rapid changes in cryosphere Attributing emissions to humans Projection and uncertainty – Different sources of uncertainty, basics of GCMs, feedbacks, “policy uncertainty”, resolution concerns, regime shifts Specific aspects of climate change relevant to children – Temperature, hydrological stress, increase in extremes and some hazards, sea level rise, damage to ecosystems, public health Interactions between climate change and society over this century – Technological progress, policy response, development and urbanization, pollution, population and demographic changes, agriculture and food systems. Cultural heritage What we can expect in coming years

Planned revisions Reorganize / consolidate – E.g., folding large scale observed changes and child- welfare-specific changes into the same section Expand discussion of planned policy response – In particular, work in more about emissions targets, carbon budgets, and the developed / developing stock / flow issues Identify and work in a few other relevant missing concepts – E.g., geoengineering, a bit more on paleoclimate comparisons perhaps Add in more quotable figures and interesting facts for readers

Feedback Thoughts on the changing social correlates section? Please get in touch with us if you’d like us to mention more or less related to your paper Anything else we should add? – Children’s vulberabilities? – Physical effects or phenomena we’re forgetting?