Climate Change and Sustainability Eugene S. Takle Director, Climate Science Initiative Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa Eugene S. Takle Director, Climate Science Initiative Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa Technology and Social Change 220X Globalization and Sustainability 2 April 2010

Outline  The balance of evidence relating to climate change  Projected future changes in global and US temperatures and precipitation  Changes in extreme events  Impacts of climate change on global food production  Climate Change “guardrail” for sustainability  The balance of evidence relating to climate change  Projected future changes in global and US temperatures and precipitation  Changes in extreme events  Impacts of climate change on global food production  Climate Change “guardrail” for sustainability

In science, the prevailing theory is the one that explains the balance of evidence What is the evidence?

Global Mean Surface Temperature

NASA

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

For updates google ISU CSI

Temperature Trends in Upper and Lower Atmosphere Upper Atmosphere (Stratosphere) Lower Atmosphere (Troposphere)

“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “ Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Arctic Sea-Ice Melt Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Decline in Greenland Ice Mass Equivalent to about 5 ft of ice over the state of Iowa each year

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, Sea-surface temperature VV Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) V

Ocean Heat Content 1 o C rise in top 3 m of global ocean is equivalent to a 1 o C rise in entire atmosphere

Where is this extra heat coming from? Possible mechanisms: More solar radiation Less reflection from clouds Less reflection from Earth’s surface More energy trapped and recycled by ozone and greenhouse gases

Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

Earth’s Energy Balance: Incoming solar = outgoing infrared radiation But rapid changes in atmosphere and ocean temperatures and loss of land and sea ice indicate an imbalance

Earth’s Energy Balance: Incoming solar = outgoing infrared radiation But rapid changes in atmosphere and ocean temperatures and loss of land and sea ice indicate an imbalance ? ? ? ?

*Other solar cycles have periods of 22,000, 41,000, and 100,000 years with 0.1% variation. 0.1 %

Forcing Factors in the Global Climate Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. More trapped (recycled) heat More cloud & land reflection

Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global Heating Increasing greenhouse gases increases heating of the Earth

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Global Carbon Emissions (Gt) Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes Note that greenhouse gases have a unique temperature signature, with strong warming in the upper troposphere, cooling in the lower stratosphere and strong warming over the North Pole. No other warming factors have this signature.

Global Mean Surface Temperature

Attribution studies: See Anderson this afternoon for applications to the Midwest

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

The balance of evidence for the magnitude and distribution of warming is explained by increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases

The “Cone of Uncertainty”

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Balanced fuel sources Energy intensive More environmentally friendly If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007 FI =fossil intensive

IPCC 2007

December- January- February Temperature Change A1B Emission Scenario minus o F 6.3 o F

IPCC 2007

June-July- August Temperature Change A1B Emission Scenario minus o F 5.4 o F

IPCC 2007

Low confidence in model projection of summer precipitation.

IPCC 2007

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Low confidence

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20 th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations. Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future.

Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp. Mitigation Possible Adaptation Necessary Adaptation Necessary The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Kennedy Space Center Miami Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying areas Projected sea-level Rise in 21st century: IPCC, 2007: cm Rahmstorf, 2009: cm (obs) Corell, 2004: cm Rahmstorf, 2009: cm (model)

Ocean Acidity

Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007

Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007

Food for a Week, Darfur Refugees, Chad © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY Source: Menzel, 2005 Nebojša Nakićenović IIASA, Vienna

Food for a Week, Germany © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY Source: Menzel, 2005 Nebojša Nakićenović IIASA, Vienna

Rise in global mean temperature ( o C)

Global Carbon Emissions (Gt) Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990

Long-Term Stabilization Profiles A2 B1 Nebojša Nakićenović IIASA, Vienna Achieving this emission reduction scenario will provide a 50% chance on not exceeding the 2 o C guardrail

Summary  Global climate change is real, and humans are significant contributors to recent changes  More extreme climate events will be evident in the near future  Global impacts to water resources, agriculture, human health, and ecosystems already are evident and will worsen  Climate changes and associated impacts will continue for the next 50 years regardless of political decisions to limit carbon emissions  Major reductions in carbon emissions are needed to prevent climate impacts from intensifying beyond 2050  Failure to limit climate change to less that 2 o C exposes key regions to irreversible change  Global climate change is real, and humans are significant contributors to recent changes  More extreme climate events will be evident in the near future  Global impacts to water resources, agriculture, human health, and ecosystems already are evident and will worsen  Climate changes and associated impacts will continue for the next 50 years regardless of political decisions to limit carbon emissions  Major reductions in carbon emissions are needed to prevent climate impacts from intensifying beyond 2050  Failure to limit climate change to less that 2 o C exposes key regions to irreversible change

For More Information  Contact me directly:  Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website:  Contact me directly:  Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program  For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: Or just Google Eugene Takle

Additional Unused Material

State-Wide Average Data

Cedar Rapids Data

State-Wide Average Data

Des Moines Airport Data

Des Moines Airport Data Average : 3.2 days/yr

Des Moines Airport Data Average : 3.2 days/yr Caution: Not adjusted for possible urban influence

Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature  Longer frost-free period (high)  Higher average winter temperatures (high)  Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)  Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium)  Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)  More freeze-thaw cycles (high)  Increased temperature variability (high)  Longer frost-free period (high)  Higher average winter temperatures (high)  Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)  Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium)  Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)  More freeze-thaw cycles (high)  Increased temperature variability (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports

 More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)  Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high)  More water-logging of soils (medium)  More variability of summer precipitation (high)  More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)  Higher episodic streamflow (medium)  Longer periods without rain (medium)  Higher absolute humidity (high)  Stronger storm systems (medium)  More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)  Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium)  More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)  Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high)  More water-logging of soils (medium)  More variability of summer precipitation (high)  More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)  Higher episodic streamflow (medium)  Longer periods without rain (medium)  Higher absolute humidity (high)  Stronger storm systems (medium)  More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)  Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium) *Estimated from IPCC reports Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive

 Reduced wind speeds (high)  Reduced solar radiation (medium)  Increased tropospheric ozone (high)  Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)  Phenological stages are shortened (high)  Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high)  Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high)  Plants have increased water used efficiency (high)  Reduced wind speeds (high)  Reduced solar radiation (medium)  Increased tropospheric ozone (high)  Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)  Phenological stages are shortened (high)  Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high)  Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high)  Plants have increased water used efficiency (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other