Vermont Solar Development Pathways Second Stakeholder Meeting April 3, 2015 Rutland, VT

Today’s Agenda 1.Welcome, Introductions,10:00 – 10:10 Big Picture, and Stakeholder Value Christine Donovan, Moderator 2.Overview for the Day10:10 – 10:20 Damon Lane, Project Manager 3.Introduction to Scenarios10:20 – 10:30 David Hill, Principal Investigator 4. Focus Group Breakout I10:30 – 11:45 Lunch11:45 – 12:15 5.Debrief / Clarifications from Focus Area I12:15 – 12:30 6.Focus Group Break Out II12:30 – 1:30 7.Wrap Up and Next Steps1:40 – 2:00

“Developed to Advanced” Solar Market Solar growth: 10+x in the coming decade By 2025, 20+% of total electric supply from solar Engineering, operational, regulatory, and business model challenges Ferrisburgh Solar Farm, How does solar at these levels relate to Vermont’s total energy economy?

Introductions: Stakeholders / Supporters Energy Action Network Green Mountain Power Lintilhac Foundation LW Seddon Lyndon State College Renewable Energy Vermont Vermont Conservation Voters Senator Virginia Lyons Senator Chris Bray VPIRG Washington Electric Coop Wolfe Energy AllEarth ANR BED, VEC Conergy DC Energy Innovations Dynapower Faraday Green Lantern Group groSolar High Meadows Fund NESCAUM NRG Pomerleau Group Positive Energy Solarize Upper Valley Suncommon UVM VELCO Vermont Law School Vermont Solar Engineering VHCB VNRC Others….

The Role of Focus Area Leads Provide input on strategic direction Offer subject matter expertise Help inform project findings and recommendations Review and comment on draft deliverables The Role of Stakeholders Catalyze discussions Lead and coordinate search for relevant data Synthesize inputs Develop drafts Collect and incorporate feedback

Vermont Solar Development Pathways Overview for the Day

Focus Area Breakouts Electric Vehicles Dave Roberts Incentives Andy Perchlik Scenario Modeling David Hill (1), Damon Lane (2) Energy Storage, Smart Grid Nick Lange Net Metering and Alternatives Carl Linvill High-Performance Manufactured Homes and Heat Pumps Peter Schneider

Objectives for Focus Area Breakouts Use discussion guides to review current / potential future market conditions Clarify, refine, identify other key factors Scenario inputs Identify existing data, gaps, other sources Group estimates of plausible values Identify process and times for completing your draft Focus Area Brief by May 12 Report out on top 3 items and process for Focus Area Brief

Housekeeping Sign in Project website: Agendas Meeting notes Presentations Reports Scenarios Resource list

Vermont Solar Development Pathways Introduction to Scenarios

LEAP System Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System Developed / maintained by Stockholm Environment Institute Decades of application and development in > 190 countries worldwide Scenario based: “self-consistent story lines of how an energy system might evolve over time”; well suited for regional and targeted technology (Solar Development Pathways) analyses Transparent accounting framework

Demand Trees

Flexible Reporting & Structure for Appropriately Detailed Analyses Heaps, C.G., Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. [Software version ] Stockholm Environment Institute. Somerville, MA, USA.

Resources  Transformation  Demand Driven

Scenario Terms Current accounts Starting point (2010, plus recent-year data) for all scenarios Utility Facts 2013, Total Energy Study Reference A business-as-usual baseline Total Energy Study Solar 3% - 5% by 2025

Scenario Terms 90 x 50 VEIC Consistent with Comprehensive Energy Plan targets Renewables ramp to 90% by 2050 Total Energy Study, with modifications Solar 6% to 10% by 2025 Vermont Solar Development Pathways Alpha Solar reaches 20% by 2025 Also meets 90 x 50 targets by 2050

Preliminary Electric Shares, by Scenario 2025

Vermont Solar Development Pathways Focus Groups Session 1 Until 11:45

Vermont Solar Development Pathways Lunch and Break Until 12:15

Vermont Solar Development Pathways Questions / Clarifications from Focus Groups 1 Until 12:30

Vermont Solar Development Pathways Focus Groups Session 2 Until 1:30

Vermont Solar Development Pathways Looking Forward

Reports (2 minutes per group) Top 3 items discussed by each focus area group Process for inputs to Focus Area Brief drafts Next large group meeting May 19, Burlington, 9 - Noon Topics: Focus Area Briefs and initial scenario results Will aim to refine, and start looking toward work on integration and barriers

For More Information General questions on project Objectives, scope, timing and scenario modeling David Hill: Damon Lane: Focus area logistics, issues or topics Focus Area Leads Suzanne Elowson: Carl Linvill: David Roberts: Peter Schneider: Ethan Goldman: Nick Lange:

Thank You! David Hill (802)

The Focus Areas Scenario testing Net metering Electric vehicles Heat pumps Smart Grid / DM Energy storage Low- income Incentives / social equity

Key Questions for All Focus Areas Current market conditions – market share, growth, costs, performance Baseline changes, path(s) to meet CEP targets Alpha solar development path 1.Key interactions / opportunities with more advanced solar deployment 2.Key regulatory, market, technical, or policy barriers / drivers Other stakeholders we should invite

Focus Area: Incentives – Suzanne Elowson Federal tax credit changes Customer financial analyses Business models and strategies Underserved market segments Renewable Energy Credits (RECs), solar set- aside Consistency in face of uncertainty Stakeholders, key barriers Other?

Focus Area: Net Metering – Carl Linvill What combination of solar installations makes sense? (distributed generation [DG] to utility scale) Guidelines and principles for good tariff design May be complementary to PSB workshop process in looking at alternatives that support DG but may not be strictly “net metering” Consider interaction with process for PSB group Other?

Focus Area: Electric Vehicles – David Roberts Light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles (LDV and HDV) market segments Trends / changes in modes and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) Complementary to solar via storage and / or charging Target segments and market uptake strategies Other?

Focus Area: Heat Pumps – Peter Schneider Load shape Relation to demand response (DR) / thermal storage Thermal shell enhancements Market share and rates compared to biomass and non-renewable energy systems Target segments and market uptake strategies Stakeholders, key barriers Other?

Focus - High-Performance Modular Housing Peter Schneider Business structure / models Scale and costs Integration of multiple technologies Solar, heat pumps, demand response, storage Smart inverters Integration to other net-zero energy / new construction trends and market Code and permitting Financing Stakeholders, key barriers Other?

Focus Area: Smart Grid / Demand Response – Ethan Goldman Priority loads and technical options Business structure / models Links to forecasting Links to storage Standardization Smart inverters Stakeholders, key barriers Other?

Focus Area: Energy Storage – Nick Lange Scale and distribution Mobile and stationary Business structure/models Value chains, load shifting, back up, ancillary services Links to forecasting Links to demand response Smart inverters Stakeholders, key barriers Other?