Biological invasions and the Millennium Assessment: bioeconomic analysis & uncertainty

200 Cichlid Extinctions

Unionid Extirpation

Sea Lamprey Damage

Ricciardi (in review) Cumulative number of invasions Year

Relevance Major cause of biodiversity loss Physical and chemical changes Industrial impacts Aesthetics Property values Invasive species cost estimated $137 Billion US/yr (Pimentel et al. 1999)

Beneficial Introduced Species

Source Location of Species Abundance  Spread Impact Transport/Survival in Pathway Establishment Maximize Societal Welfare EcologyObjective Benefits Costs Bioeconomics

Source Location of Species Abundance  Spread Impact Transport/Survival in Pathway Establishment Value Added Investment Production Prevention Control Maximize Societal Welfare EcologyEconomicsObjective Benefits Costs Transport / Introductions Non-market Values Bioeconomics

Cost Welfare Cost 25 yr horizon5 yr horizon Time Leung et al. 2002

Bioeconomics Explicitly incorporate interactions between society, management & ecology Incorporate time scale, GDP, and biological responses Integrate non-market components Challenges Sparse data High uncertainty (ecology, economic valuation) Timely, but appropriate responses

Uncertainty 3 invasions, 100 lakes examined: p=0.03? Pr=0.57 Pr=0.28 Pr=0.04

Learning event Effect of New Research Learning event

Research Directions Flexible frameworks for decision making Ecological forecasting with realistically limited data Integration and evaluation of uncertainty and learning on decisions